MIDWEEK RECAP

Nebraska was the big winner in the Midweek REAL Standings Projections, winning a Road game vs. a peer Tier Two Team. Didn’t hurt that Mizzou resembled an intramural team. But, as the saying goes, they don’t ask how, just how many. With its victory, NU picked up not only its first conference W of 2008, but gained a full game in the RSP.

A&M picked up ½ game with its Home court victory over UT, a One Tier Higher Team.

OU, ISU, and k-state all picked up their projected Home W’s over Okie St, CU, and KU respectively. No REAL changes there.

REAL STANDINGS: 1/31/08

1. 13-3

KU (5-1) Projected L’s: at UT
Losable games: at OSU, at A&M

2. 12.5-3.5

k-state (5-0) Projected L’s: at BU, at KU
Losable games: at MU, at TT, at NU

3. 11.5-4.5

Baylor (4-1) Projected L’s: at UT, at KU
Losable games: at OSU, at OU, at TT

4. 11-5

UT (3-2) Projected L: at BU, at ksu
Losable games: at OU, at TT

5. 8-8

A&M (3-3) Projected L: at MU, at UT, at OU, at BU
Losable games: at ISU, KU

6. 7.5-8.5

OU (3-2) Projected L’s: at A&M, at TT, at UT, at NU, at OSU
Losable games: UT, at CU, BU

7. 7-9

NU (1-4) Projected L’s: at ksu, at A&M, at OSU, at UT
Losable games: at ISU, ksu

Tech (2-3) Projected L’s: at BU, at NU, at A&M, at KU
Losable games: ksu, at CU, UT, BU

9. 6.5-9.5

MU (2-4) Projected L’s: at KU, at NU, at ksu, at BU, at OU
Losable games: ksu

10. 5-11

OSU (1-5) Projected L’s: at TT, at ksu, at A&M, at MU, at UT
Losable games: Baylor, KU

11. 4-12

ISU (3-3) Projected L’s: at NU, UT, at OU, at TT, KU, at CU, at MU, ksu
Losable games: A&M, NU

12. 3-13

CU (1-5) Projected L’s: KU, at OSU, at KU, at MU, BU, at ksu, at NU
Losable games: OU, TT

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Big XII Weekend Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient) on a 1-4 star scale:

SATURDAY

1. Baylor at UT (12:30p.m.)****

Baylor’s opportunity to validate themselves as a Tier One Team. They did everything but beat UT in Austin and OKC last year. Unfortunately, they will run into a desperate and humiliated UT team, having been taken to the cleaners for the fourth straight time in College Station.

Projected W: UT

2. k-state at Mizzou St (12:30p.m.)***(?)

With Mizzou at fuill strength, this would be a 4 star special. With Hannah out, it drops a full star in desirability. If his teammates’ suspensions hold, it will be a ½ star lemon. If the suspendees return with a vengeance, Mizzou is good enough at Home to make this one entertaining—especially if k-state has a hangover of any extent.

Projected W: None

3. Okie St at tech (1:00p.m.)***

Tech sucks big time on the Road, but is competitive at Home. Okie St is generally competitive Home or Away. Not a game of much import, but it could be interesting.

Projected W: Tech

4. KU at Colorado (2:30p.m. CST)**

I feel sorry for the Buffs.

Projected W: KU

5. Iowa St at NU (3:00p.m.)*

NU goes for two in a row. An ISU victory might result in a battlefield promotion to Tier Two.

Projected W: NU

6. OU at A&M (3:00p.m.)****

Two teams back on the right track. One will come out of this contest riding a three game winning streak.

Projected W: A&M

–Mark

I was perusing KU’s Game Plan page this week and something jumped out at me: the Hawks’ sudden drop in turnovers forced. In non-conference games, opponents averaged turnovers on about 28% of their possessions (this isn’t exact, but it’s a good enough estimate). The lowest turnover rate of any opponent had been Boston College at 21.8%. But as soon as Big 12 play started, the turnovers stopped.

@Nebraska: 18.7%
Oklahoma: 16.8%
@Missouri: 12.8%
Iowa State: 15.3%
Nebraska: 21.6%

Now, some of the drop is simply because these teams are surprisingly good at not turning the ball over (the worst among them is Nebraska, which ranks 101st in T0%). But these rates are even below their season averages; not a good sign for a defense that has previously been ranked near the top in forcing opponents to cough it up, right?

Well, not so fast. Along with the drop in turnovers, there was a simultaneous drop in opponents’ offensive rebounding percentage (OR%) and effective field goal percentage (eFG%). Their previous season averages had been approximately 31% and 45%, respectively:

TEAM: OR%, eFG%
@Nebraska: 21.1%, 47.0%
Oklahoma: 29.6%, 35.9%
@Missouri: 25.2%, 41.5%
Iowa State: 21.1%, 36.1%
Nebraska: 25.0%, 32.5%

So while the turnovers decreased, they’ve done a better job of crashing the defensive boards, and they’ve made it even tougher for opponents to get open looks. Could this be the result of a change in defensive strategy - gambling for turnovers less and playing “straight up;” putting more priority on staying between their man and the basket, and keeping a hand in their face? I didn’t get to watch any of these games closely, so maybe those of you that did can answer that question.

Whatever the reason, I wanted to know how often other teams show similar changes, and what it meant for those teams going forward. Unfortunately, Pomeroy’s site only has Game Plan data for 2007 and 2008, so I could only use last year as a guide. I searched the data to find all major conference teams with a stretch of 5 or more games in which their TO% dropped 10+ points from its previous level. I found 5 teams: Arizona State, Duke, Florida, Georgia, and West Virginia. But the Mountaineers were the only team whose streak wasn’t accompanied by a simultaneous general worsening of their defensive efficiency (which hasn’t happened in KU’s case).

So what happened to WVU after the streak? Their next game was on the road against a top-20 (according to Pomeroy) conference opponent with a talented freshman forward (Notre Dame and Luc Harangody). Their turnover and rebound rates dropped even more, their defense softened a little, and they lost a close game, 61-58. Going forward, their turnover rate never recovered to its previous level, but their opponents’ offensive rebounding DID, not a good combination.

By no means does this imply the same thing will happen to KU, but it is something to look out for tonight. K-State will have success on the offensive boards, as they have all year. If they also manage to hold onto the ball as well as other conference opponents have, tonight’s game may be closer to a toss-up than Pomeroy’s 76-68 prediction would indicate.

WEEKEND RECAP

Don’t try to make me do a recap, ‘cause I’ll say, “No, No, No.”

Who cares what happened Saturday? We have history in the making Wednesday night in Manhattan, KS.

Remember that football game that had been scheduled to be played in Lawrence on November 24? The one between No. 2 Kansas and No. 4 Mizzou? The game that would have been the biggest sporting event ever played in the State of Kansas?

With Lew Perkins’ sale of that game to the State of Missouri, some other game retains that title: No. 1 ranked KU vs. No. 2 Mizzou in basketball in 1990, perhaps. The KU/OU football game in ’68 maybe. Or even, possibly, k-state vs. Nebraska in ’98, a game that put k-state within shouting distance of a berth in the BCS title game.

Those games move to the backseat Wednesday night.

The Top Ten reasons this game has it all:

1. Two arch-rivals;
2. From the Sunflower State—no interlopers from the east or the north on this night;
3. The only two teams still undefeated in Big 12 play;
4. The top Two Teams in the REAL Standings;
5. The best team in the country;
6. The team with arguably the best player in the country and likely No. 1 pick in this year’s NBA draft;
7. A Home team that has never beaten its arch-rival on its Home court;
8. A Home team that has not beaten its arch-rival in its home town in the life-time of any player on either team;
9. A REAL frustrated Home team fan base (see 7 and ; and, the piece de resistance,
10. The arguably best player in the country guaranteeing a victory for the Home team.

It doesn’t get any bigger than this for raw emotion. By approximately 9:00p.m. Wednesday night, either k-state fans will have their most exhilarating sports moment in a quarter of a century, or KU fans will have their best laugh since—well–since October 6.

Well, okay. If you insist, here is the Weekend Recap: OU +1 (BU -1); A&M +1 (OSU -1); Mizzou +.5 (CU -.5). No other movement in the RSP.

As for Baylor, their week that was brings to mind the words of George C. Scott as Gen. George S. Patton:

For over a thousand years, Roman conquerors returning from the wars enjoyed the honor of a triumph — a tumultuous parade. In the procession came trumpeters and musicians and strange animals from the conquered territories, together with carts laden with treasure and captured armaments. The conqueror rode in a triumphal chariot, the dazed prisoners walking in chains before him. Sometimes his children, robed in white, stood with him in the chariot, or rode the trace horses. A slave stood behind the conqueror, holding a golden crown, and whispering in his ear a warning: that all glory is fleeting.

REAL STANDINGS: 1/27/08

1. 13-3

KU (5-0) Projected L’s: at ksu, at UT
Losable games: at OSU, at A&M

2. 12.5-3.5

k-state (4-0) Projected L’s: at BU, at KU
Losable games: at MU, at TT, at NU

3. 11.5-4.5

Baylor (4-1) Projected L’s: at UT, at KU
Losable games: at OSU, at OU, at TT

UT (3-1) Projected L: at BU, at ksu
Losable games: at A&M, at OU, at TT

5. 7.5-8.5

Mizzou (2-3) Projected L’s: at KU, at NU, at ksu, at BU, at OU
Losable games: ksu

A&M (2-3) Projected L: at MU, at UT, at OU, at BU
Losable games: UT, at ISU, KU

OU (2-2) Projected L’s: at A&M, at TT, at UT, at NU, at OSU
Losable games: UT, at CU, BU

8. 7-9

Tech (2-3) Projected L’s: at BU, at NU, at A&M, at KU
Losable games: ksu, at CU, UT, BU

9. 6-10

NU (0-4) Projected L’s: at MU, at ksu, at A&M, at OSU, at UT
Losable games: at ISU, ksu

10. 5-11

OSU (1-4) Projected L’s: at OU, at TT, at ksu, at A&M, at MU, at UT
Losable games: Baylor, KU

11. 4-12

ISU (2-3) Projected L’s: at NU, UT, at OU, at TT, KU, at CU, at MU, ksu
Losable games: A&M, NU

12. 3-13

CU (1-4) Projected L’s: at ISU, KU, at OSU, at KU, at MU, BU, at ksu, at NU
Losable games: OU, TT

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Big XII Weekday Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient) on a 1-4 star scale:

MONDAY

1. Okie St at OU (8:00p.m.)**

Okie St is going nowhere fast. With Blake Griffin back in the lineup, this should not be much of a game on Norman. The only thing this game has going for it is its name: the Bedlam Series. Maybe OSU will play over its head for 40 minutes and make this one interesting. But that’s not the way to bet.

Projected W: OU

TUESDAY

2. Colorado at Iowa St (7:00p.m.)*

The worst game of the Big 12 season. Except for Iowa St at Colorado.

Projected W: ISU

WEDNESDAY

3. KU at k-state (7:00p.m.)*****

Somewhere there is an old man, clad in purple, on his knees praying that k-state will beat KU in Manhattan in his lifetime.

Somewhere else, a young boy.

A game for the ages.

A game for all ages.

Twenty-five is a good age.

Projected W: k-state

4. Nebraska at Mizzou (7:00p.m.)**

Poor Nebraska. Survive this game, and they get ISU at Home Saturday.

Projected W: Mizzou

5. Texas at A&M (8:00p.m.)****

A&M’s chance for redemption. UT’s chance to stay relevant.

Projected W: None

–Mark

What? Are these TV executives so stupid that they don’t even read the REAL Standings anymore? The Baylor/A&M game was listed in the Midweek preview of Big 12 games as the only 4 star contest on the menu. Yet it was the only one of the five Midweek games that was not televised anywhere?

As for the game in College Station, I mentioned prior to the game that I would be surprised if Baylor stayed within singled digits. This was not a comment on Baylor’s talent level. They showed last year and early this season, that they had a nice lineup. In fact, I was in agreement with the UDK columnist who noted in his Tuesday blog that “Baylor Basketball is this season’s Kansas football.”

However, the Bears appeared to have two major obstacles facing them in this game: First, the Aggies would, I assumed, defend their Home turf with a vengeance—especially after going 0-2 on their recent Road trip to the Big 12’s garden spots of Lubbock and Manhattan. Second, Baylor had never won a game of this magnitude. They came close a couple of times last year (reminiscent of the ’06 football Jayhawks), but had always found a way to fall short. Until a team with good players actually wins a big game, I don’t expect them to do so.

It did help that the Aggies put on the worst free throw/3 point shooting exhibition since that of another team in a game we all recall in New Orleans half a decade ago. The key, however, is not that the Aggies refused to win. It is that Baylor took advantage of the opportunity and refused to go away. This is what good teams do. Now that they have their coming of age game behind them, they will be a load the rest of the year. In fact, it is not inconceivable that KU’s toughest remaining game could be Baylor in Lawrence—in spite of the REAL Standings’ normally strict Home game/Road game dichotomy.

One other thing: From KU’s standpoint, with regard to the Big 12 race, Darrell Arthur’s decision to attend KU might prove to be less important than his decision to NOT attend Baylor. There was a time when it was thought that D.A. and Kevin Rogers would attend the same school. If Baylor had both, they might even now be the prohibitive favorite to bask in Big 12 championship glory for the first time ever in a sport that matters.

Not to be relegated to the role of being simply an after-thought, k-state also made a statement Wednesday night. As a normal matter, I would not be impressed with a Road win at a Third Tier Team like Colorado. However, k-state won this game the way a good team should win a game against a non-competitor—by making the game non-competitive. k-state took command early in the first half, stayed in control the rest of the way, and never let the Buffaloes entertain any thoughts about making it a contest. They also played a little bit of defense.

With two Road wins each, and considering the manner in which they have gotten the job done, I am inclined to consider Baylor and k-state as “contenders” for the purposes of the REAL Standings. This does not mean that I subjectively believe that either can stand up to KU over a 16 game schedule and seriously threaten to wrest the championship from the Jayhawks. It does mean that they have elevated themselves above their former peer Tier Two Teams, and should be considered front-runners for a Thursday bye in the Big 12 Tournament and the virtually automatic NCAA bid that goes with that status. And an outside shot at the conference title.

And A&M? Suffice it to state that, with three losses and more to come, they are in no way, shape, or form a Tier One Team. In fact, the only thing they are in contention for is bubble status.

Aside from Baylor and k-state, the only other team that made progress in the REAL Standings in the Midweek games was UT, picking up ½ game in the RSP with its Road win at Okie St. KU and Tech both picked up projected Home W’s with no muss or fuss against ISU and Mizzou respectively.

REAL STANDINGS: 1/24/08

1. 13-3

KU (4-0) Projected L’s: at ksu, at UT

Losable games: at OSU, at A&M

2. 12.5-3.5

Baylor (4-0) Projected L’s: at UT, at KU

Losable games: at OSU, at OU, at TT

k-state (3-0) Projected L’s: at BU, at KU

Losable games: at MU, at TT, at NU

4. 11.5-4.5

UT (2-1) Projected L: at BU, at ksu

Losable games: at A&M, at OU, at TT

5. 7-9

Mizzou (1-3) Projected L’s: at KU, at NU, at ksu, at BU, at OU

Losable games: at CU, ksu

Tech (2-2) Projected L’s: at UT, at BU, at NU, at A&M, at KU

Losable games: ksu, at CU, UT, BU

7. 6.5-9.5

A&M (1-3) Projected L: at OSU, at MU, at UT, at OU, at BU

Losable games: UT, at ISU, KU

OU (1-2) Projected L’s: at BU, at A&M, at TT, at UT, at NU, at OSU

Losable games: UT, at CU, BU

9. 6-10

NU (0-3) Projected L’s: at KU, at MU, at ksu, at A&M, at OSU, at UT

Losable games: at ISU, ksu

OSU (1-3) Projected L’s: at OU, at TT, at ksu, at A&M, at MU, at UT

Losable games: Baylor, KU

11. 4-12

ISU (2-2) Projected L’s: at ksu, at NU, UT, at OU, at TT, KU, at CU, at MU, ksu

Losable games: A&M, NU

12. 3.5-12.5

CU (1-3) Projected L’s: at ISU, KU, at OSU, at KU, at MU, BU, at ksu, at NU

Losable games: MU, OU, TT

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Big XII Weekend Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient):

SATURDAY

1. NU at KU (12:30p.m.)*1/2

The only angle of interest int heis game is whether KU will be caught looking ahead to next Wednesday and allow the Huskers to stay closer than they did in Lincoln.

Projected W: KU

2. A&M at Okie St (1:00p.m.)***

Two extremely desperate teams. Expect to see some desperate measures.

Projected W: Okie St

3. Mizzou at Colorado (2:00p.m.)**

Did I hear correctly that Mizzou is looking for its first Big 12 Road win since Quin? If they don’t get it Saturday, they might still be looking this time next year.

Projected W: None

4. OU at Baylor (3:00p.m.)**1/2

With Blake Griffith, OU’s front line would have a good shot at stealing this game. If they win without him, it will be grand larceny.

Projected W: Baylor

5. Iowa St at k-state (5:00p.m.)**

If k-state is truly a Tier One Team, this will be a ho-hum game.

Or will they be looking ahead to next Wednesday?

Projected W: k-state

6. Tech at UT (7:00p.m.)**1/2

UT has been playing at their opponents’ level lately. If they continue doing so, Bobby Knight might just bring them down a notch in the REAL Standings.

Projected W: UT

–Mark

A few days ago, I pondered whether the Big 12 should be divided into two tiers, rather than three: i.e., KU and everyone else.

That thought, made partly in jest at the time, is beginning to look like one deserving serious consideration. Consider what happened Saturday:

KU further separated itself from the rest of the field with a Road W at Mizzou—this while A&M took another half step backwards at k-state, and UT, while not losing ground, was lucky to tread water, walking off its Home court with a two point victory over 11th place Colorado. Which raises the question: Is UT a legitimate contender, or is CU REALly a pretty good team that is merely misunderstood?

And Iowa St. They have won two games in a week. Not an earthshaking accomplishment in one sense, because both Mizzou and Okie St were teams ISU was given a reasonable chance of beating at Home. Still, they didn’t split these games: they won both, which suggests that they are a more competitive team than previously thought.

Not to mention k-state: are they worthy of joining–or even replacing–A&M as a Tier One Team? With their schedule, if they were categorized as a Tier One Team, they would be atop the REAL Standings at 13-3 (Only Projected L at KU, with losable games at NU, Tech, Mizzou and Baylor), while KU would drop to 12.5-3.5 (with the current losable game at Manhattan transformed into a projected L).

And what about undefeated Baylor, winners of a meaningful Road game for the first time in, what, Big 12 history?

I will let it play out a little longer before making any drastic reassessments, especially since we are not yet one-fourth of the way through the conference season. But, as a man from Hibbing once said, the times they are a-changing.

REAL STANDINGS: 1/20/08

1. 13-3

KU (3-0) Projected L’s: at UT, at A&M

Losable games: at ksu, at OSU

2. 11.5-4.5

UT (1-1) Projected L: at A&M

Losable games: at OSU, at OU, BU, ksu, TT

3. 11-5

A&M (1-2) Projected L: at UT

Losable games: at OSU, at MU, at OU, at BU

4. 9-7

k-state (2-0) Projected L’s: at MU, at TT, at NU, at BU, at KU

Losable games: at CU, KU, UT, at ISU

5. 8.5-7.5

Baylor (3-0) Projected L’s: at A&M, at UT, at KU, at OSU, at OU, at TT

Losable games: UT, at CU, A&M

6. 8-8

Tech (1-2) Projected L’s: at UT, at BU, at NU, at A&M, at KU

Losable games: at CU, UT

7. 7-9

Mizzou (1-2) Projected L’s: at TT, at KU, at NU, at ksu, at BU, at OU

Losable games: at CU, A&M

8. 6.5-9.5

NU (0-3) Projected L’s: at KU, at MU, at ksu, at A&M, at OSU, at UT

Losable games: at ISU

OU (1-2) Projected L’s: at BU, at A&M, at TT, at UT, at NU, at OSU

Losable games: UT, at CU, A&M

OSU (1-2) Projected L’s: at OU, at TT, at ksu, at A&M, at MU, at UT

Losable games: UT, KU, A&M

11. 4.5-11.5

CU (1-2) Projected L’s: at ISU, at KU, at OSU, KU, at MU, at ksu, at NU

Losable games: ksu, MU, OU, TT, BU

12. 4-12

ISU (2-1) Projected L’s: at KU, at ksu, at NU, A&M, UT, at OU, at TT, KU, at CU, at MU

Losable games: OSU, NU, ksu

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Big XII Weekday Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient):

MONDAY

1. UT at OSU (8:00p.m.)***1/2

Two weeks ago, this game looked like a REAL snoozer. Okie St has been looking respectable, however, through three games. UT has looked suspect.

Projected W: None

WEDNESDAY

2. Iowa St at KU (6:00p.m.)*1/2

The Cyclones will have to wait another day for that breakthrough game on the Road.

Projected W: KU

3. Baylor at A&M (7:00p.m.)****

A MUST game for the Aggies, even with twelve games remaining after this one. A loss here, and A&M is fighting for fourth place. A W by the Bears, and they will have to be considered for a battlefield promotion to Contender status.

Projected W: A&M

4. Mizzou at Tech (7:00p.m.)***

This won’t be much of a game if Mizzou plays like it did in its first Road game (at ISU) and Tech plays like it did in its first Home game (vs. A&M). Still, a good match up IF Mizzou will play as actively and aggressively as they did vs. KU on Saturday. Not likely on the Road, but worth looking in on just in case. . .

Projected W: Tech

5. k-state at Colorado (8:00p.m.)***1/2

k-state goes for its second Road win in two tries. CU has sent notice that it will no longer simply roll over in Boulder or elsewhere. A win here will be huge for either team.

Projected W: None

–Mark

Five mid-week games. Five Home team victories, including two by Colorado and Iowa St. And the second time in five days that a purported contender has lost on the Road to a Tier Two Team.

Unless KU gets bitten by the Road Bug, this could be easier than anticipated. A week ago, I had this as a three tier conference. Is it possible that there are only two: KU and everyone else?

It is still early according to the calendar. According to the REAL Standings, it is getting late for any team not called Kansas. In fact, the only reason there is still a question mark as to the identity of the ultimate conference champion is that UT and A&M avoid playing KU in Lawrence, getting the Jayhawks only on their Home courts—giving them a chance to pick up a game that KU cannot make them disgorge at a later date.

As for the conference’s putative bottom feeders–Colorado and Iowa St–both picked up victories on their Home courts (vs. Nebraska and Mizzou respectively) in games they were projected to have a REAListic chance of winning. If either were to pick up a Road game against someone not the other, it would be difficult to justify keeping them in the conference’s lowest tier of teams.

The gainers in the REAL Standings Projections in the mid-week games were, of course, ISU and CU in picking up Home victories against One Tier Higher Teams, and Tech, doing the same vs. A&M. All three picked up ½ game in the REAL Standings, while the three losers—well, they were losers, both on the court and in the REAL Standings to the tune of ½ game each.

KU and Baylor, as projected winners, and the teams from Oklahoma, as projected losers, maintained the status quo REAL Standings-wise.

REAL STANDINGS: 1/17/08

1. 12.5-3.5

KU (2-0) Projected L’s: at UT, at A&M
Losable games: at MU, at ksu, at OSU

2. 11.5-4.5

A&M (1-1) Projected L: at UT
Losable games: at ksu, at OSU, at MU, at OU, at BU

UT (0-1) Projected L: at A&M
Losable games: at OSU, at OU, BU, ksu, TT

4. 8.5-7.5

k-state (1-0) Projected L’s: at MU, at TT, at NU, at BU, at KU
Losable games: at A&M, at CU, KU, UT, at ISU

5. 8-8

Tech (1-1) Projected L’s: at OU, at UT, at BU, at NU, at A&M, at KU
Losable games: at CU, UT

6. 7.5-8.5

Mizzou (1-1) Projected L’s: at TT, at KU, at NU, at ksu, at BU, at OU
Losable games: KU, at CU, A&M

NU (0-2) Projected L’s: at KU, at MU, at ksu, at A&M, at OSU, at UT
Losable games: at ISU

Baylor (2-0) Projected L’s: at NU, at A&M, at UT, at KU, at OSU, at OU, at TT
Losable games: UT, at CU, A&M

9. 7-9

OSU (1-1) Projected L’s: at OU, at TT, at ksu, at A&M, at MU, at UT
Losable games: at ISU, UT, KU, A&M

10. 6.5-9.5

OU (0-2) Projected L’s: at BU, at A&M, at TT, at UT, at NU, at OSU
Losable games: UT, at CU, A&M

11. 4.5-11.5

CU (1-1) Projected L’s: at UT, at ISU, at KU, at OSU, KU, at MU, at ksu, at NU
Losable games: ksu, MU, OU, TT, BU

12. 3.5-12.5

ISU (1-1) Projected L’s: at KU, at ksu, at NU, A&M, UT, at OU, at TT, KU, at CU, at MU
Losable games: OSU, NU, ksu

FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE

Big XII Weekend Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient):

SATURDAY

1. OSU at ISU (12:30p.m.)**

Both teams have looked better than I anticipated. Should be a watchable game, a close game, even if not an Instant Classic.

Projected W: None

2. A&M at ksu (3:00p.m.)****

This one could be an Instant Classic. A&M coming in off an embarrassingly futile effort in Lubbock. Mark Turgeon, who was there when the Jayhawks started their generational-long winning streak in Manhattan, returns to the scene of the crime. k-state with an opportunity to not only improve on its impressive start vs. the RSP by another ½ game, but to become a factor in the race for third—or even second–place.

Projected W: None

3. Tech at OU (3:00p.m.)***

Can Tech take its game on the Road? Against a winless team without its best player?

Projected W: OU

WEDNESDAY

4. Baylor at Nebraska (5:00p.m.)***

After losing in Boulder, the Huskers are another Home team desperate to get off the schneide. Baylor, on the other hand, gets its first taste of life away from Waco. Don’t think they haven’t been looking forward to it.

Projected W: NU

5. Colorado at UT (7:30p.m.)*

Is this game REALly necessary?

Projected W: UT

6. KU at Mizzou (7:00p.m.)****

If Mizzou were good, this game could eclipse the football game in Arrowhead. In that game, no one, including REAListic fans of both teams, thought that the best team in the country was on that field.

There are many who believe that KU is the best team in the country in basketball. The question is whether Mizzou has enough talent to give the Hawks a game at the Paige. They certainly will not lack incentive. Despite their relegation to the Cotton Bowl after being twice taken to the cleaners by OU in football, and despite being a non-factor in the basketball world, they have an opportunity to do something that is probably unique in the world of college athletics: i.e., give its arch-rival their only losses in the two sports that matter through a combined 30 games. At the moment, KU is 29-0 since Labor Day against every team in the world not named Missouri. Don’t think for a minute that Mizzou’s greatest goal in life—a rung or two above bringing about world peace—isn’t making the Jayhawks’ record against the team named Missouri 0-2.

The Jayhawks, however, appear to be a team that simply brings its game night after night, regardless of the opponent, regardless of artificial motivations. They simply have—with apologies to Jimmie Dykes, who has recently behaved as if he owns proprietary rights to the word—“it.”

My prediction is that KU will be respectful of Mizzou as an opponent, and methodically put them away.

Because this game involves a Tier Two team on its Home court vs. a Tier One Team, it is, for the objective purposes of the REAL Standings, an at-risk game for both teams.

Projected W: None.

–Mark

Bold statement from OU’s coach:

Oklahoma has a good perspective on the three nation’s unbeaten teams, having played two of them. The Sooners lost to No. 2 Memphis 63-53 on Nov. 15.

‘’I think (the Jayhawks) are better,'’ Capel said. ‘’They are the best team we’ve played and we have played some really good teams. They are so balanced. They shoot better than Memphis. They are bigger. They are probably equally as good in transition but this team passes the ball better.

‘’I don’t think it’s close, this is the best team in the country.'’