WEEKEND RECAP

Just the other day, I was asked, “What has to happen for Kansas State to be reclassified as a Tier Two Team?”

As luck would have it, K-State’s putrid (a word that connotes something beyond pathetic) performance in Lawrence Saturday night did not result in demotion to Tier Two status.

No, 40 minutes of basketball worthy of the Washington Generals on a bad day merited a well-deserved demotion directly to Level Three, without passing Go, without collecting two hundred dollars.

In fact, as we approach the mid-point of the conference season, it is time to reassess the Big 12 as a whole. And that reassessment results in numerous changes of status:

1. Two teams stand above the rest. You can either guess who they are (only one guess allowed) or peek below to discover their identities. As a hint, they are the only two teams worthy of Tier One status and the label “Contender.” In fact, no other team has even a remote chance of claiming a share of the Big 12 Title.

2. Two other teams are clearly a step behind the Tier One teams. One of them, Mizzou, appears to be a step ahead of the eight remaining teams. The other, A&M, is not necessarily ahead of the rest of the pack, but has done nothing yet to play itself out of both Levels One and Two, as K-State has done.

3. The other eight teams are interchangeable. If they played an eight team tournament eight times, you might see eight different winners. The main difference between these teams this far being a play here and a play there in games decided in the last minute or overtime. All eight could easily miss hearing their names called on Selection Sunday, unless they stay up for the NIT and CBI announcements. Of these eight, only Baylor looks like a team with a ceiling higher than your average double-wide.

As for Saturday’s games, the only mild surprise was Nebraska taking out A&M in Lincoln. In one sense, this was not a surprise at all, being an At-Risk game for both teams. What was surprising was that Nebraska, a team not built for coming back, even at Home, was able to dominate the second half, outscoring A&M to the tune of 33-17 to ultimately prevail 57-48.

In other games, the Home teams won as projected in four: KU over hapless K-State; UT over a Mizzou team that, a la K-state, did not show up; Baylor, trailing throughout and trailing big, overtaking Colorado in the final moments of the game; and Tech, in Overtime,overcoming an outrageous foul call that allowed Keiton Page (not to be confused with Page Keaton, legendary law school dean at UT) to tie the game in regulation with three free throws in the final twenty seconds of regulation.

The only game that actually went contrary to its projection resulted in an Overtime victory for OU at Iowa St. Hilton Magic appears to be going the way of Puff after Jackie Paper came no more. . .

REAL STANDINGS: 1-30-11
Tier One (Contenders): KU, UT
Tier Two (Competitors): Mizzou, Texas A&M
Tier Three (Bottom-feeders): Baylor, Colorado, Iowa St, K-State, Nebraska, Okie St, Oklahoma, Texas Tech

1. 15.5-.5
UT (6-0) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at A&M

2. 14.5-1.5
KU (5-1) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at Mizzou

3. 10.5-5.5
A&M (4-2) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: vs. UT, at CU, at Tech, at Okie St, at Baylor

4. 9.5-6.5
Mizzou (3-3) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at OSU, at ISU, at K-State, at NU, vs. KU

5. 6.5-9.5
Baylor (4-3) Projected L’s: at OU, at A&M, at UT, at Mizzou, at OSU, vs. UT
Losable games: vs. A&M

Colorado (3-4) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at KU, at Tech, vs. UT, at ISU
Losable games: vs. A&M

7. 6-10
Okie St (2-5) Projected L’s: at NU, at UT, at KU, at OU
Losable games: vs. Mizzou, vs. A&M

Oklahoma (3-3) Projected L’s: at OSU, vs. UT, at Mizzou, at K-State, at A&M, vs. KU, at Tech Losable games: None

9. 5.5-10.5
K-State (2-5) Projected L’s: at ISU, at CU, vs. KU, at Nebraska, at UT
Losable games: at Okie St

Nebraska(3-3) Projected L’s: at K-State, vs. KU, at BU, at OU, vs. UT, at ISU, at CU
Losable games: vs. Mizzou

Texas Tech (3-4) Projected L’s: vs. KU, at UT, at Mizzou, at Baylor, at OSU, at A&M
Losable games: vs. A&M

12. 4.5-11.5

Iowa St (1-6) Projected L’s: at CU, at KU, at A&M, at UT, at K-State
Losable games: vs. Mizzou

WHAT TO WATCH
MONDAY
1. Texas at A&M (8:00)****(At-Risk Game)
UT’s last At-Risk game of the season. If they don’t lose this game, when will they? Time for Nick, Kirk, A-Ron, Keith, Drew, et al., to start paying attention a la the ‘72 Miami Dolphins.

TUESDAY
2. Baylor at OU (6:00)***(Projected W: OU)
Whoda thunk just two weeks ago that this would be a projected W for the Sooners? But a three game winning streak, including one on the Road, is nothing for a team that has underachieved like the Bears to sneeze at.

3. Iowa St at Colorado (7:00)**1/2 (Projected W: Colorado)
Should be a lot of points scored.

4. KU at Tech (8:00)***1/2(Projected W: KU)
Bill Self has never won at Tech. He is 0-3, including the A-Ron getting called for traveling while being mugged game (’04), and the losing to one of the worst teams in the history of the Big 12 while winning the Big 12 handily game. Not to mention that Tech is currently on a longer winning streak (3) at Home and Overall than the Jayhawks. The Hawks better come to play.

WEDNESDAY

5. Nebraska at K-State (7:00)***(Projected W: K-State)
One of K-State’s last chances to regain any semblance of self (lower case “s”) respect.

6. Mizzou at Okie St (8:00)***1/2 (At-Risk Game)
When I was a child, my grandfather would regale me with tales about walking to grade school in a blinding snowstorm, paying a nickel to attend a silent movie, watching Will Rogers perform at the Electric Theater in Kansas City, Kansas, buying products with the words “Made in USA” stamped on them; along with scarier stories, like how hard it was to win a basketball game at Oklahoma St. I recall those days. Well, at least the part about Oklahoma St. That is lore I hope to pass along someday to my own grandchildren.

–Mark

MIDWEEK RECAP

Yeah, yeah, yeah. KU and UT both picked up ½ game in the REAL Standings by taking down Second Tier opponents on the Road (Colorado and Okie State respectively). But that is by the bye: these feats, while impressive in a vacuum, merely resulted in the two teams treading the proverbial H20 vis-à-vis each other; i.e., the REAL Standings gap between the two remained one full game—13.5-12.5 instead of 13-12.

The REAL move was made by Texas Tech, the third ROAD Runner beep-beeping its way through MTW portion of this week’s schedule. The Red Raiders treated Iowa St the way Acme Products treats Wile E. Coyote. In achieving the rarest of REAL Standings outcomes–prevailing on the Road to a Higher Tier team, the Techsters picked up a full game in the RS. Heck, I’d give them two games were it mathematically possible.

Or is it possible? A promotion to Tier 2 would result in an additional improvement of two full games in the REAL Standings: Projected Losses vs. KU and A&M being reclassified as at-risk games; and at-risk games vs. Okie St and Colorado being changed to Projected W’s.

A win by Tech on Saturday, vs. Okie St, will erase any concern about elevating it into the rarefied (and relatively better smelling) Tier Two Air.

As a corollary, because a lot of actions have a reaction, Iowa St is looking at movement in the opposite direction with another Home loss to another Tier Three Team (Oklahoma).

The only one of the four early week games of no consequence in the REAL Standings was K-State, as projected, outlasting Baylor in a Manhattan Foul Fest.

REAL STANDINGS: 1-27-11

Tier One (Contenders): KU, K-State, Mizzou, Texas A&M, UT.

Tier Two (Competitors): Baylor, Colorado, Iowa St, Okie St, Nebraska.

Tier Three (Bottom-feeders): Oklahoma, Texas Tech.

1. 13.5-2.5

UT (5-0) Projected L’s: at A&M

Losable games: at NU, at CU, at BU

2. 12.5-3.5

KU (4-1) Projected L’s: at K-State, at Mizzou

Losable games: at NU

3. 12-4

A&M (4-1) Projected L’s: at KU

Losable games: at NU, at CU, at OSU, at BU

4. 9.5-6.5

Mizzou (3-2) Projected L’s: at UT, at KU, at K-State

Losable games: at OSU, at ISU, at NU

5. 8.5-7.5

K-State (2-4) Projected L’s: at KU, at UT

Losable games: at ISU, at CU, at NU

6. 7.5-8.5

Baylor (3-3) Projected L’s: at A&M, at UT, at Mizzou, at OSU

Losable games: at OU, vs. A&M, vs. UT

7. 7-9

Colorado (3-3) Projected L’s: at BU, at Mizzou, at KU, at ISU

Losable games: vs. A&M, vs. K-State, at Tech, vs. UT

Okie St (2-4) Projected L’s: at NU, at UT, at KU

Losable games: at Tech, vs. Mizzou, vs. A&M, at OU

9. 6-10

Nebraska(2-3) Projected L’s: at K-State, at BU, at ISU, at CU

Losable games: vs. A&M, vs. KU, at OU, vs. UT, vs. K-State, vs. Mizzou

10. 5-11

Iowa St (1-5) Projected L’s: at CU, at KU, at A&M, at UT, at K-State

Losable games: vs. K-State, vs. Mizzou

11. 4-12

Texas Tech (2-4) Projected L’s: vs. KU, vs. A&M, at UT, at Mizzou, at Baylor, at OSU, at A&M

Losable games: vs. OSU, vs. CU

12. 3.5-12.5

Oklahoma (2-3) Projected L’s: at ISU, at OSU, vs. UT, at Mizzou, at K-State, at A&M, vs. KU, at Tech

Losable games: vs. BU, vs. NU, vs. OSU

WHAT TO WATCH

SATURDAY

1. Colorado at Baylor (12:30)***(Projected W: Baylor)

Shot clock? We don’t need no stinkin’ shot clock.

2. Texas A&M at Nebraska (1:00)***1/2 (At risk game)

A&M cannot afford to lose any game against a Tier Two Team anywhere. KU and UT have not lost one yet and don’t appear to be planning to do so any time soon.

3. Okie State at Texas Tech (3:00)***(At risk game)

A W for Tech, and it will be tough to keep them down in the Tier Three dregs. And raise some serious questions about Okie St.

4. K-State at KU (6:00)****(Projected W: KU)

Jayhawks. Wildcats. ‘Nuf said.

5. Mizzou at UT (8:00)**** (Projected W: UT)

If UT continues to play solid team basketball, with effective if not spectacular point guard play, and with Brown and Hamilton playing under control and threatening to get hot at any moment, there are precious few conference games remaining that pose a threat to them. Which raises the question: Is UT that good, or does the Big 12 kinda suck?

Regardless, although this game is a Projected W for UT, it could well be one of the two most challenging games remaining on its schedule. Mizzou has the ability to get hot and stay hot long enough to steal this game. A result which is exactly what any KU fan who cares more about his or her team than he or she disdains Mizzou will hope for. Could be a run on clothes pins in Lawrence. And yes, we are talking the REAL world, not the Bizarro kind.

Not a prediction. The prediction is the same as the projection. UT can handle MU’s press and is stronger up front. But this game is not automatic.

6. Oklahoma at Iowa St (8:00)** (Projected W: ISU)

A loss for the Cyclones, and they can hide their heads in shame. Maybe follow Nebraska and Colorado out of the conference. Petition the Big Sky for admission, so they can compete. Or we could add a Tier Four to the Big 12.

And if the Cyclones win?

Well, actually, what if they do?

–Mark

PRELUDE
Condolences to Thomas Robinson. No one should ever lose a child. Or, if a child, as we all are, a parent before the parent is 40.

Or 50.

Actually, 75.

Come to think of it, there is no good time.

Unfortunately, REAL Life is not always as fun as the REAL Standings. And much less certain.

Here’s to you, Ms. Robinson.

WEEKEND RECAP

Two weeks ago, I wrote here that:

“Jason (King) tweeted after the KU/Michigan game that KU is not the best team in the Big 12 right now: He says UT is, but KU will catch and pass them as the year progresses. I agree on both counts, IF KU can find someone with a handle to run the offense. . .”

It was not likely that the Hawks would find a white knight at the point in a mere thirteen days, but after the Baylor game, there was reason to at least hope that their point guard by committee might be good enough if they could dominate inside and hit enough perimeter shots to keep the lane unclogged for the big guys. Moments after the Baylor game, before leaving the arena. Growl Towel for my golf bag in hand (not hanging on a clip outside the bag where it could be seen, but kept in the full length pocket for REALly filthy situations, such as when the ball lands in deer droppings), I allowed that, for the first time, I was encouraged about the Jayhawks’ chances vs. UT.

But it was not to be. Subjectively, and unfortunately, I still view UT as the best team in the conference. Can KU catch them?

Maybe. But I don’t see that as likely as I did before Saturday. UT has three perimeter players who can consistently either make and hit their own shots or create easy chances for their teammates. Right now, KU has none of the former and not what they need of the latter. Don’t know if there is a solution. If there is, it will likely involve one Josh Selby taking his talents from first semester basketball freshman IQ and ball handling skills to second semester sophomore levels ASAP.

The likelihood of that happening? I don’t pretend to know the answer. However, with Bill Self on the bench, it is at least conceivable.

but that is all subjective. As for the objectivity that is the REAL Standings, the winner of Saturday’s game in Allen Fieldhouse, as foretold in the most recent edition of the RS, is your 2011 Big 12 Champion. At the very least, the title is now UT’s to lose.

And they will have to figure out a way to lose it. With its victory, UT took a stranglehold on the Big 12 race. Not only did it vault over KU with a two game swing in the REAL Standings, the Longhorns have an easier remaining schedule. Their most difficult remaining game is at A&M, whereas KU has two Projected Losses, both vs. its arch-rivals: at K-State and at Mizzou.

In fact, what was previously KU’s scheduling advantage–playing UT in Lawrence with no return trip to Austin–now works against it: Even though the Hawks would be a decided underdog in Austin, they would at least be in control of their own destiny. They would at least have an opportunity to place a 1 in UT’s L column themselves, instead of, as mentioned last time, having to rely on the kindness of strangers.

Instead, guess who Hawk fans will be reduced to cheering for when K-State and Mizzou make their treks to the Erwin Center.

Of course, Texas A&M is also alive, and in a better position than KU. Although the Aggies’ projected record is the same as the Jayhawks’, the team of the 12th Man (which would make for an awfully crowded court were it REALity), has but one Projected Loss left on its schedule (at KU) and has the opportunity to pin an L on UT itself in College Station. Win out, and the Aggies are guaranteed to be no worse than co-champions.

It should be noted that beating UT in College Station does nothing for A&M but maintain the status quo in the REAL Standings. If they accomplish that feat, they will then be required to match UT’s W in Lawrence to catch up in the RS.

Two other amusing, but not earth-shattering, developments Saturday were the woefulness of Texas Tech and Oklahoma both claiming victories at Home vs. Nebraska and Colorado, respectively. Both pick up 1/2 game in the REAL Standings, thus eliminating the possibility of both going 1-15 for the season. Drat!

The other three Saturday games all went as projected, meaning they had no effect on the REAL Standings: A&M over K-State in College Station; Baylor over Okie St in Waco; and Mizzou over Iowa St in Columbia.

REAL STANDINGS: 1-20-11

Tier One (Contenders): KU, K-State, Mizzou, Texas A&M, UT.
Tier Two (Competitors): Baylor, Colorado, Iowa St, Okie St, Nebraska.
Tier Three (Bottom-feeders): Oklahoma, Texas Tech.

1. 13-3
UT (4-0) Projected L’s: at A&M
Losable games: at OSU, at NU, at CU, at BU

2. 12-4
KU (3-1) Projected L’s: at K-State, at Mizzou
Losable games: at CU, at NU

A&M (4-1) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at NU, at CU, at OSU, at BU

4. 9.5-6.5
Mizzou (3-2) Projected L’s: at UT, at KU, at K-State
Losable games: at OSU, at ISU, at NU

5. 8.5-7.5
K-State (1-4) Projected L’s: at KU, at UT
Losable games: at ISU, at CU, at NU

6. 7.5-8.5
Colorado (3-2) Projected L’s: at BU, at Mizzou, at KU, at ISU
Losable games: vs. KU, vs. A&M, vs. K-State, at Tech, vs. UT

Baylor (3-2) Projected L’s: at K-State, at A&M, at UT, at Mizzou, at OSU
Losable games: at OU, vs. A&M, vs. UT

Okie St (2-3) Projected L’s: at NU, at UT, at KU
Losable games: vs. UT, at Tech, vs. Mizzou, vs. A&M, at OU

9. 6-10
Nebraska(2-3) Projected L’s: at K-State, at BU, at ISU, at CU
Losable games: vs. A&M, vs. KU, at OU, vs. UT, vs. K-State, vs. Mizzou

Iowa St (1-4) Projected L’s: at CU, at KU, at A&M, at UT, at K-State
Losable games: vs. K-State, vs. Mizzou

11. 3.5-12.5
Oklahoma (2-3) Projected L’s: at ISU, at OSU, vs. UT, at Mizzou, at K-State, at A&M, vs. KU, at Tech Losable games: vs. BU, vs. NU, vs. OSU

12. 3-13
Texas Tech (1-4) Projected L’s: at ISU, vs KU, vs. A&M, at UT, at Mizzou, at Baylor, at OSU, at A&M Losable games: vs. OSU, vs. CU

WHAT TO WATCH

Monday

1. Baylor at K-State (8:00)***(Projected W: K-State)
Big Monday, Down-sized edition.

Tuesday

2. KU at Colorado (6:00)***1/2 (At risk game)
The Jayhawks look to add to their seven game Home Court winning streak at Allen Fieldhouse Far West.

Wednesday

3. UT at Okie State (6:30)***1/2(At risk game)
First at risk game of the year for UT.

4. Texas Tech at Iowa State (8:00)**(Projected W: Iowa St)
If Iowa St uses any of Hilton’s magic in this one, it will be a waste of good supernatural energy that would be better kept in reserve for a later date. For when Mizzou visits, perhaps.

–Mark

MID-WEEK RECAP

Out of the six Mid-Week games in the Big 12, one game and one game only made a difference in the latest edition of the REAL Standings. I am referring, of course to KU’s victory in Waco, giving the Jayhawks their second W in an at risk game (Iowa State being the first). As a result, KU has taken a full game lead over their other two primary contenders, UT and A&M, neither of which has played either an at risk game nor a game in which either was projected to lose.

That,of course, changes Saturday when UT spends a few thousand of its newly minted 300 million dollars traveling to Lawrence. A KU victory, being the projected outcome, will not affect the REAL Standings at all. However, a UT win, turning a Projected Loss on its head, would result in a two game swing, making the Big 12 title theirs to lose.

As for the other five Mid-Week games, all went as projected, with the Home team winning in every case: Mizzou over K-State; Nebraska over Colorado; Oklahoma at Tech; Okie St over Iowa St (in OT); and UT over A&M.

And yes, I hear the grumbling: as in “Why is K-State still treated as a Tier One team?” Well, they might not be much longer; but I am, as a rule, slow to adjust the tiers unless there is no argument for keeping them as is. At any rate, K-State was projected to go 1-1 during the past week (W over Tech at Home, L to Mizzou on the Road), and that’s exactly what they did.

REAL STANDINGS: 1-20-11

Tier One (Contenders): KU, K-State, Mizzou, Texas A&M, UT.

Tier Two (Competitors): Baylor, Colorado, Iowa St, Okie St, Nebraska.

Tier Three (Bottom-feeders): Oklahoma, Texas Tech.

1. 13-3

KU (3-0) Projected L’s: at K-State, at Mizzou

 Losable games: at CU, at NU

2. 12-4

UT (3-0) Projected L’s: at KU, at A&M

Losable games: at OSU, at NU, at CU, at BU

A&M (3-1) Projected L’s: at KU

Losable games: at NU, at CU, at OSU, at BU

4. 9.5-6.5

Mizzou (2-2) Projected L’s: at UT, at KU, at K-State

 Losable games: at OSU, at ISU, at NU

5. 8.5-7.5

K-State (1-3) Projected L’s: at A&M, at KU, at UT

Losable games: at ISU, at CU, at NU

6. 8-8

Colorado (3-1) Projected L’s: at BU, at Mizzou, at KU, at ISU

 Losable games: at OU, vs. KU, vs. A&M, vs. K-State, at Tech, vs. UT

7. 7.5-8.5

Baylor (2-2) Projected L’s: at K-State, at A&M, at UT, at Mizzou, at OSU

 Losable games: at OU, vs. A&M, vs. UT

Okie St (2-2) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at NU, at UT, at KU

Losable games: vs. UT, at Tech, vs. Mizzou, vs. A&M, at OU

9. 6.5-9.5

Nebraska(2-2) Projected L’s: at K-State, at BU, at ISU, at CU

Losable games: at Tech, vs. A&M, vs. KU, at OU, vs. UT, vs. K-State, vs. Mizzou

10. 6-10
Iowa St (1-3) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at CU, at KU, at A&M, at UT, at K-State

Losable games: vs. K-State, vs. Mizzou

11. 3-13

Oklahoma (1-3) Projected L’s: at ISU, at OSU, vs. UT, at Mizzou, at K-State, at A&M, vs. KU, at Tech

 Losable games: vs. CU, vs. BU, vs. NU, vs. OSU

12. 2.5-13.5

Texas Tech (0-4) Projected L’s: at ISU, vs KU, vs. A&M, at UT, at Mizzou, at Baylor, at OSU, at A&M

Losable games: vs. NU, vs. OSU, vs. CU

WHAT TO WATCH

Saturday

1. Colorado at Oklahoma (12:30)*1/2 (At risk game)

It’s on the schedule. They have to play it. You can watch it if you want.

2. K-State at A&M (1:00)***1/2 (Projected W: A&M)

It’s desperation time for K-State. If they don’t pick up an unexpected win somewhere, they will be playing on Wednesday the week of the Big 12 Tourney.

3. UT at KU (3:00)****(Projected W: KU)

Ladies and gentlemen: I give you the Big 12 Champion. Not guaranteed, of course, but, unlike next year, the loser will get no second chance against the winner and will be dependent, as of late Saturday afternoon, on the kindness of strangers.

4. Okie St at Baylor (3:00)**1/2 (Projected W: Baylor)

Baylor can’t afford another loss at Home. At least not a
second one in six days–and to a fellow Tier Two team at that.

5. Nebraska at Tech (6:30)*1/2 (At risk game)

See Colorado at Oklahoma, above.

6. Iowa St at Mizzou (8:00)*** (Projected W: MU)

Not technically an at risk game, but with Iowa State coming off an overtime loss in Stillwater and taking NU to the wire in Lincoln, it is conceivable that the Cyclones could make a run at exposing Mizzou. If you’re into that sort of thing. . .

–Mark

WEEKEND RECAP

Talk about anti-climactic. Saturday was a rarity in the REAL world: All six Home teams were projected winners; not an at-risk game in the bunch. And all six Home teams won: KU over Nebraska, K-State over Tech, Colorado over Okie St, A&M over Mizzou, UT over Oklahoma, and Iowa St over Baylor.

Nor was KU’s narrow escape vs. Nebraska surprising. My pre-game comment about that game was: “The way KU has played with fire this year–vs. UCLA and USC, at Cal, Michigan, and Iowa St–it would not be a shock to see NU hang around to the bitter end.” Personally, I consider taking a three at the buzzer to force Overtime hanging around to the bitter end.

I did add, “Or not, if the Hawks decide to take care of the ball and reduce their infatuation with the three pointer.”

Yeah, like that was going to happen.

Probably the biggest surprise of the day was the margin by which Iowa St took out Baylor. Either KU’s close call in Ames is suddenly more impressive than previously thought, or the Hawks’ prospects in Waco Monday night are rosier than they had been.

With all six projected winners following script, no team’s REAL record changed in the slightest. Not by a game. Not by half a game. Not by nothin’.

Notwithstanding that Mizzou and Nebraska almost caused a major seismic event in the REAL Standings. But, as we all know, “almost” means it did not REALly happen.”

As a result, the Jayhawks maintain their half game advantage over their closest pursuers, UT and A&M.

MLK DAY REAL STANDINGS

Tier One (Contenders): KU, K-State, Mizzou, Texas A&M, UT.

Tier Two (Competitors): Baylor, Colorado, Iowa St, Okie St, Nebraska.

Tier Three (Bottom-feeders): Oklahoma, Texas Tech.

1. 12.5-3.5

KU (2-0) Projected L’s: at K-State, at Mizzou
Losable games: at BU, at CU, at NU

2. 12-4

UT (2-0) Projected L’s: at KU, at A&M
Losable games: at OSU, at NU, at CU, at BU

A&M (3-0) Projected L’s: at UT, at KU
Losable games: at NU, at CU, at OSU, at BU

4. 9.5-6.5

Mizzou (1-2) Projected L’s: at UT, at KU, at K-State
Losable games: at OSU, at ISU, at NU

5. 8.5-7.5

K-State (1-2) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at A&M, at KU, at UT
Losable games: at ISU, at CU, at NU

6. 8-8

Baylor (2-1) Projected L’s: at K-State, at A&M, at UT, at Mizzou, at OSU
Losable games: vs. KU, at OU, vs. A&M, vs. UT

Colorado (3-0) Projected L’s: at NU, at BU, at Mizzou, at KU, at ISU
Losable games: at OU, vs. KU, vs. A&M, vs. K-State, at Tech, vs. UT

8. 7.5-8.5

Okie St (1-2) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at NU, at UT, at KU
Losable games: vs. UT, at Tech, vs. Mizzou, vs. A&M, at OU

9. 6.5-9.5

Nebraska(1-2) Projected L’s: at K-State, at BU, at ISU, at CU
Losable games: at Tech, vs. A&M, vs. KU, at OU, vs. UT, vs. K-State, vs. Mizzou

10. 6-10

Iowa St (1-2) Projected L’s: at OSU, at Mizzou, at CU, at KU, at A&M, at UT, at K-State
Losable games: vs. K-State, vs. Mizzou

11. 3-13

Oklahoma (0-3) Projected L’s: at ISU, at OSU, vs. UT, at Mizzou, at K-State, at A&M, vs. KU, at Tech
Losable games: vs. CU, vs. BU, vs. NU, vs. OSU

12. 2.5-13.5

Texas Tech (0-3) Projected L’s: at OU, at ISU, vs KU, vs. A&M, at UT, at Mizzou, at Baylor, at OSU, at A&M
Losable games: vs. NU, vs. OSU, vs. CU

WHAT TO WATCH

Monday

1. K-State at Mizzou (4:30)**** (Projected W: Mizzou)

K-State has a dream: To avoid the NIT. They can take a big step toward REALizing that dream Monday afternoon in Columbia.

2. KU at Baylor (8:30)**** (At risk game)

As the great Kenny, Gee! might say, “It’s not like we almost lost to Baylor. . .”

Tuesday

3. Colorado at Nebraska*** (6:00)***(Projected W: Nebraska)

Colorado’s opportunity to move to the head of the Tier Two class as the Pac-12/Big 10 duo prepare to go their different ways. It is the Buffaloes’ first game played both away from Home and against a team at full strength.

4. Texas Tech at Oklahoma (7:00)* (Projected W: OU)

A four hands game: You need two hands to cover both eyes and another two to cover both ears.

Wednesday

5. Iowa St at Okie St (8:00)**1/2 (Projected W: Okie St)

Not a bad game, but why would you watch this, when, at the same time, there is:

6. Texas A&M at UT (8:00)**** (Projected W: UT)

Perhaps the two teams playing the best basketball in the conference right now. I say “perhaps,” because neither has played either a Projected Loss or At-Risk game. Still, applying the eyeball test, UT is one of the two most talented teams in the Big 12, and A&M has, to this point, demonstrated the best execution. A&M’s edge is that UT might be looking ahead: Rick Barnes’ greatest dream in his professional life—above winning a National Championship–is to beat KU in Lawrence, a feat he believes will elevate his team in status to KU’s level, allowing him to play Duke to KU’s Carolina. Maybe, even, get mentioned by Dickie V during an ACC or Big East game. . .

–Mark

MIDWEEK RECAP

Following K-State’s loss to Colorado in Manhattan on Wednesday night, Jacob Pullen was report as saying, “”We’ve just got to grow up. That’s the biggest thing. The Big 12 is 16 games. We lost our first two. Nothing says we can’t win the rest.”

Actually, Jacob, there is something that says you can’t win the rest. It’s called the REAL Standings.

Because of the Big 12’s unbalanced schedule, K-State was behind the proverbial 8 ball before conference play even started. Playing all four of the other pre-season Tier One teams on the Road placed K-State at a two game disadvantage compared to KU, UT, and Texas A&M, each of whom play only two. Its chances of winning the conference title were, under these circumstances, remote, even if they were, indeed, the best team in the Big 12, as forecast by the league’s coaches. They would have had to be head and shoulders above everyone else to erase this handicap.

After two games, you can change “remote” to “virtually impossible.” Nor is it the 0-2 start that has been fatal to K-State’s championship hopes. Had they started conference play with defeats at Lawrence and Austin, two of their projected losses, they would have given up no ground in the REAL Standings: their projected record would be where it was pre-season (10-6). Instead, by losing at Okie St and to Colorado at Home, they have gone .5-1.5 in games in which they had been projected to do the opposite.

As a result, K-State’s projected record over the 16 game season has dropped from 10-6 to 8.5-1.5. REAListically, they are no longer a threat to win the Big 12, even with the impending return of Curtis Kelly.

As for Colorado, does their win in Manhattan merit a battlefield promotion to Tier One status? Just asking the question is a major step forward for the perennial Mediocrities of the Mountains. In addition to wins over two Tier One teams, they have two of the conference’s best players. So it is a fair question. However, the win vs. Mizzou was at Home, and the win at Manhattan was against a K-State team that is no better than Tier Two quality itself in the absence of its No. 1 inside threat. So, we will keep a close eye on the Buffaloes; but it is premature to draw any long term conclusions based on their two games to this point. Ditto K-State’s in its two losses without one of its two mainstays.

There were no other major story lines from the mid-week action. KU held on for an at-risk W in Ames. The other four contests went as projected, with wins by UT at Tech, Baylor vs. OU in Waco, A&M over Okie St in College Station, and Mizzou downing Nebraska in Columbia.

THE 1/13/11 REAL STANDINGS

1. Tier One (Contenders): KU, K-State, Mizzou, Texas A&M, UT.

2. Tier Two (Competitors): Baylor, Colorado, Iowa St, Okie St, Nebraska.

3. Tier Three (Bottom-feeders): Oklahoma, Texas Tech.

1. 12.5-3.5

KU (1-0) Projected L’s: at K-State, at Mizzou
Losable games: at BU, at CU, at NU

2. 12-4

UT (1-0) Projected L’s: at KU, at A&M
Losable games: at OSU, at NU, at CU, at BU

A&M (2-0) Projected L’s: at UT, at KU
Losable games: at NU, at CU, at OSU, at BU

4. 9.5-6.5

Mizzou (1-1) Projected L’s: at A&M, at UT, at KU, at K-State
Losable games: at OSU, at ISU, at NU

5. 8.5-7.5

K-State (0-2) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at A&M, at KU, at UT
Losable games: at ISU, at CU, at NU

6. 8-8

Baylor (2-0) Projected L’s: at ISU, at K-State, at A&M, at UT, at Mizzou, at OSU
Losable games: vs. KU, at OU, vs. A&M, vs. UT

Colorado (2-0) Projected L’s: at NU, at BU, at Mizzou, at KU, at ISU
Losable games: at OU, vs. KU, vs. A&M, vs. K-State, at Tech, vs. UT

8. 7.5-8.5

Okie St (1-1) Projected L’s: at CU, at Baylor, at NU, at UT, at KU
Losable games: vs. UT, at Tech, vs. Mizzou, vs. A&M, at OU

9. 6.5-9.5

Nebraska(1-1) Projected L’s: at KU, at K-State, at BU, at ISU, at CU
Losable games: at Tech, vs. A&M, vs. KU, at OU, vs. UT, vs. K-State, vs. Mizzou

10. 6-10

Iowa St (0-2) Projected L’s: at OSU, at Mizzou, at CU, at KU, at A&M, at UT, at K-State
Losable games: vs. K-State, vs. Mizzou

11. 3-13

Oklahoma (0-2) Projected L’s: at UT, at ISU, at OSU, vs. UT, at Mizzou, at K-State, at A&M, vs. KU, at Tech
Losable games: vs. CU, vs. BU, vs. NU, vs. OSU

12. 2.5-13.5

Texas Tech (0-2) Projected L’s: at K-State, at OU, at ISU, vs KU, vs. A&M, at UT, at Mizzou, at Baylor, at OSU, at A&M
Losable games: vs. NU, vs. OSU, vs. CU

WHAT TO WATCH

Saturday:

1. Okie St at Colorado (11:30)***1/2 (Projected W: CU)

Okie St’s stock fell dramatically in College Station. Not because they lost: that was projected. Because they were not competitive. They better come ready to compete in Boulder or risk being exposed in the cold, mile high air.

2. Mizzou at A&M (Noon)**** (Projected W: A&M)

Mizzou needs to win at least 3 of its four Road games against Tier One teams. A loss here, and the Tigers will need to sweep the games in Austin, Manhattan, and Lawrence.

3. Texas Tech at K-State* (12:30)*(Projected W: K-State)

K-State better win this one, or even the dreaded NIT might lose interest.

4. Nebraska at KU (1:00)** (Projected W: KU)

The way KU has played with fire this year–vs. UCLA and USC, at Cal, Michigan, and Iowa St–it would not be a shock to see NU hang around to the bitter end. Or not, if the Hawks decide to take care of the ball and reduce their infatuation with the three pointer.

5. Oklahoma at UT (3:00)* (Projected W: UT)

K-State would kill for UT’s early schedule: at Tech and Home to OU.

6. Baylor at Iowa St (5:00)*** (Projected W: ISU)

What is the conference record for most three point shots attempted by two teams in one game?

–Mark

MEDIA REPORT

First, some amusing media moments from the past week:

• Kirk Bohls of the Austin American-Statesman wrote last Sunday:

The bet here is Missouri wins the Big 12 basketball title. Love their intensity, athleticism and Mike Anderson’s coaching.

Kirk, apparently, is not a REAL Standings aficionado. Which is surprising, being the No. 1 columnist on a fairly large newspaper, notwithstanding that his readership is lacking in basketball fanatics. Had Kirk heeded the lessons of the REAL Standings, he would have REALized that Mizzou, whatever you think of its intensity, athleticism and coaching, was always a long shot, at best, to win the Big 12 title. As noted in the pre-season REAL Standings, Mizzou (along with K-State), started the conference season two full games behind KU, UT, and A&M. They would need to be head and shoulders above the rest of the pack to make up that kind of disadvantage.

• Fran Fraschilla, during the K-State/Okie St game, stated ad nauseum that its victory would give the Cowboys their first quality win this season. Fran makes the common mistake of giving a team credit for winning a game on its Home Court. Repeat after me, Fran: “Home Wins prove nothing.” You win championships and earn respect on the Road and on neutral courts. Call me when Okie St beats a good team somewhere other than Gallagher-Iba Arena.

• Jason King (former KU beat writer) tweeted: “The Big 12 is 11 deep this year.”

Two problems with this comment: First, what does he mean by “deep”? If he means “adequate,” he might be close. Second, even assuming he means “adequate,” where does he find 11 teams that fit that description? Tech and Oklahoma both suck out loud. Twelve minus two equals ten. Plus, Iowa St and Nebraska still need to demonstrate that they are even adequate. Playing each other to a standstill is hardly persuasive. Not saying they aren’t adequate. But who knows?

As an aside, Jason tweeted after the KU/Michigan game that KU is not the best team in the Big 12 right now: He says UT is, but KU will catch and pass them as the year progresses. I agree on both counts, IF KU can find someone with a handle to run the offense. . .

WEEKEND RECAP

Nothing particularly noteworthy happened Saturday. Colorado and Okie St both picked up ½ game in the REAL Standings by taking out Mizzou and K-State respectively in games that were labeled as at-risk games for all parties prior to those games. The only REAL significance of these games is that Mizzou and K-State, already two games back before setting foot on the court in their season openers, already trailed the three leaders by two full games. Both were in dire need of winning all four of their at-risk games–a tall order, indeed. Now, they are faced with the even taller order of going at least 3-1 in their four Road games vs. their other Tier One opponents. Their title hopes, one game into the sixteen game season, are now hanging by a thread. A flimsy thread.

Baylor picked up ½ game with a W in Lubbock in an at-risk game. That’s the one good thing about Tier Two status: you get credit for taking down a Bottom Feeder on the Road.

Meanwhile, A&M, taking out Oklahoma, the other Tier Three team, was of no REAL consequence. A Tier one team beating a Level Three team, even on the Road, is meaningless. It is merely knocking a projected W off the schedule.

Likewise, Nebraska’s Home court victory over Iowa St, a fellow Level Two team, also a projected W, had no effect on the REAL Standings.

THE 1/9/11 REAL STANDINGS

1. Tier One (Contenders): KU, K-State, Mizzou, Texas A&M, UT.

2. Tier Two (Competitors): Baylor, Colorado, Iowa St, Okie St, Nebraska.

3. Tier Three (Bottom-feeders): Oklahoma, Texas Tech.

1. 12-4

KU (0-0) Projected L’s: at K-State, at Mizzou
Losable games: at ISU, at BU, at CU, at NU

UT (0-0) Projected L’s: at KU, at A&M
Losable games: at OSU, at NU, at CU, at BU

A&M (1-0) Projected L’s: at UT, at KU
Losable games: at NU, at CU, at OSU, at BU

4. 9.5-6.5

K-State (0-1) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at A&M, at KU, at UT
Losable games: at ISU, at CU, at NU

Mizzou (0-1) Projected L’s: at A&M, at UT, at KU, at K-State
Losable games: at OSU, at ISU, at NU

6. 8-8

Baylor (1-0) Projected L’s: at ISU, at K-State, at A&M, at UT, at Mizzou, at OSU
Losable games: vs. KU, at OU, vs. A&M, vs. UT

7. 7.5-8.5

Okie St (1-0) Projected L’s: at A&M, at CU, at Baylor, at NU, at UT, at KU
Losable games: vs. UT, at Tech, vs. Mizzou, vs. A&M, at OU

8. 7-9

Colorado (1-0) Projected L’s: at K-State, at NU, at BU, at Mizzou, at KU, at ISU
Losable games: vs. Mizzou, at OU, vs. KU, vs. A&M, vs. K-State, at Tech, vs. UT

9. 6.5-9.5

Iowa St (0-1) Projected L’s: at OSU, at Mizzou, at CU, at KU, at A&M, at UT, at K-State
Losable games: vs. KU, vs. K-State, vs. Mizzou

Nebraska(1-0) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at KU, at K-State, at BU, at ISU, at CU
Losable games: at Tech, vs. A&M, vs. KU, at OU, vs. UT, vs. K-State, vs. Mizzou

11. 3-13

Oklahoma (0-1) Projected L’s: at BU, at UT, at ISU, at OSU, vs. UT, at Mizzou, at K-State, at A&M, vs. KU, at Tech
Losable games: vs. CU, vs. BU, vs. NU, vs. OSU

12. 2.5-13.5

Texas Tech (0-1) Projected L’s: vs. UT, at K-State, at OU, at ISU, vs KU, vs. A&M, at UT, at Mizzou, at Baylor, at OSU, at A&M
Losable games: vs. NU, vs. OSU, vs. CU

:

What to Watch

Tuesday:

1. UT at Tech (6:00)* (Projected W: UT)

The Longhorns can leave their anti-perspirant in Austin. They shouldn’t work up a sweat in this game.

2. Oklahoma at Baylor (8:00)* (Projected W: Baylor)

An H&H game. A REAL Ho-Hummer.

Wednesday:

3. Nebraska at Mizzou (6:00)**( (Projected W: Mizzou)

How good is Mizzou, REALly? And is Nebraska REALly adequate? This game could offer some clues both ways.

4. Okie St at A&M (7:00)*** (Projected W: A&M)

Okay, Okie St. This is your chance to pick up your first quality win of the season. If you do, tell Fran to call me.

5. Colorado at K-State (8:00)*** (Projected W: K-State)

K-State desperately needs to figure out some way of winning its final game before Curtis Kelley returns from Dillard’s—errr, suspension. If they don’t, the conference season will be past the point of no return.

6. KU at Iowa St (8:00)**** (At risk game)

I don’t know if Iowa St is adequate. I imagine, however, that they are as good as Michigan. The Hawks better come ready to play 40 minutes of energetic and smart basketball—something they have not done yet this season. If they don’t, the Basketball Gods might not smile on them in the closing seconds this time. . .

–Mark