WEEKEND RECAP

This is the way the season ends
This is the way the season ends
This is the way the season ends
Not with a whimper but a bang*

And so it will end. The only bigger bang would be if the two leaders faced each other next Saturday, both at 13-2 in conference play.

We have the next best thing, however, with Colorado’s improbable victory over UT on Saturday, in which it scored 58 second half points against the conference’s top ranked defense. As a result, we enter the final week of conference play with both UT and KU facing two interesting challenges in their quest to grab a share or more of the Big 12 Championship.

The question is: which of the two is more likely to win out and hoist the trophy by its lonesome? I say, “by its lonesome,” because the odds are against both teams ending the season at 14-2.

Objectively, according ot the REAL Standings formula, UT has the inside track, with both remaining games (Tier Two K-State in Austin and Tier Three Baylor in Waco) being projected W’s. KU, on the other hand, is facing an at risk game vs. Tier Two Mizzou in Columbia in addition to A&M in Lawrence (a Projected W). Which is why the current REAL Standings have UT with a ½ game lead over the Jayhawks (14-2 to 13.5-2.5).

Subjectively, however, I give KU a slight edge:

UT’s game against K-State at Home is slightly more difficult than KU playing A&M in AFH. The Aggies (Texas variety) are an overachieving team that has done a good job pulling out close games. To do that Wednesday night, the game will have to be close. It shouldn’t be in Lawrence–not on Tyrel’s, Brady’s, and Mario’s Senior Night.

K-State, on the other hand, is an underachieving team that has started to hit its stride after shedding itself of unnecessary parts that simply clogged its engine and revamping its offense. Regardless of conference records, K-State is a better team than A&M at this point in time.

Does this mean K-State will beat UT? Of course not. I rate K-State’s chances of pulling that off at 20%. They are on the Road, where they have lost to lesser teams than UT, they are facing a team on its senior night (two of whom are regular starters), as well as a team fuming from letting a 22 point lead slip through their fingers Saturday. Not to mention still stinging from last year’s loss in Manhattan that started its fall from grace.

However, between K-State and A&M, K-State is the more likely to pull the upset. I generously rate A&M’s chances in Lawrence at 10%.

Then we have Saturday. Again, I rate KU’s chances slightly higher than UT’s. Mizzou is a Tier higher in the REAL Standings pecking order than Baylor, and is undefeated at Home—as opposed to Baylor, which has a Home loss to Texas Tech (not a typo). Further, it is KU/Mizzou. ‘Nuf said. Plus the prospect of beating the nation’s No. 1 ranked team before a rare capacity crowd.

Baylor, on the other hand, has better talent than Mizzou, which translates into a higher ceiling. They are impressive when they play to their ability level—which, unfortunately for them, has not been often. But if they do not play at that level for 40 minutes this Saturday, Lacedarius Dunn will likely be Merely Done. Unless, of course, he takes the path Jacob Pullen says he would not—i.e., playing in the NIT.

More importantly, Baylor matches up better talent-wise with UT than Mizzou does with KU. The Bears can bang inside and stroke it outside. Mizzou can stroke it outside, but inside its only hope is that the refs bail them out, bringing Withey into play.

Because of the matchups, locations, and intangibles, I rate UT’s chances of winning in Waco at 55% and KU’s in Columbia at 60%.

If my assessments are correct, the likelihood of KU winning both games this week is 54%, as opposed to UT’s 44%. In other words, KU is 10% more likely to go 14-2 than UT. A negligible advantage at best.

The more important consideration is that the possibility that KU and UT will prevail in all four games is 24%. Stated differently, there is a 76% chance that the two teams will incur at least one loss between them, leaving the other (if it goes 2-0) as the uncontested Big 12 Champ.

As an aside, Kenpom.com objectively views three of the four games similarly to my subjective analysis: Giving KU a 92% probability of downing A&M at Home and 65% at Mizzou—or a 55.2% chance of jogging the table.

Kenpom’s analysis, which does not take into account intangibles like rivalries and the desperation factor, rates UT’s chances vs. K-State at 88%. The major difference between Kenpom’s numbers and mine is that Kenpom rates UT’s chances of beating Baylor in Waco at 79%–making a 2-0 finish 65.2% likely. That is 10% better than KU.

Kenpom, then has the likelihood of a flat-footed tie at 14-2 at 36%. Meaning there is a 64% chance that it will not happen.

So pick your poison. KU is more likely to finish 14-2 than UT (man); or UT is more likely (machine).

We all know what happened with John Henry, Paul Bunyan, and Ken Jennings.

Here’s to man reclaiming some modicum of respectability.

In other action Saturday, aside from Colorado turning a 22 point deficit into an 11 point lead and ultimate 2 point victory, nothing much of note happened, with the minor exception of Baylor downing A&M in Waco. Being an at risk game, however, that came as no surprise to anyone paying attention.

The rest of the games went strictly as projected: KU over OU in Norman; Iowa St defeating NU in Ames; Okie St eking out a victory over Tech in Stillwater; and K-State adding to Mizzou’s Road futility in Manhattan.

REAL STANDINGS: 2-27-11

Tier One (Contenders): KU, UT
Tier Two (Competitors): K-State, Mizzou, Texas A&M
Tier Three (Also rans): Baylor, Colorado, Iowa St, Nebraska, Okie St, Oklahoma, Tech

1. 14-2

UT (12-2) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: None

2. 13.5-2.5

KU (12-2) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at Mizzou

3. 10-5

A&M (9-5) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: None

4. 9-7

K-State (8-6) Projected L’s: at UT
Losable games: None

Mizzou (8-6) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at NU, vs. KU

6. 8-8

Colorado (7-7) Projected L’s: at ISU
Losable games: None

7. 6.5-9.5

Baylor (6-7) Projected L’s: at Okie St, vs. UT
Losable games: vs. A&M

Nebraska (6-8) Projected L’s: at CU
Losable games: vs. Mizzou

9. 6-10

Okie St (5-9) Projected L’s: at OU
Losable games: None

10. 5-11

Oklahoma (4-10) Projected L’s: at Tech
Losable games: None

Texas Tech (4-10) Projected L’s: at A&M
Losable games: None

12. 3-13

Iowa St (2-12) Projected L’s: at K-State
Losable games: None

WHAT TO WATCH (or not)

MONDAY

1. K-State at UT (8:00)****(Projected W: UT)

Major implications for both teams, both in the league standings and NCAA seedings. A loss here, and UT will start to feel San Antonio slip-sliding away.

TUESDAY

2. Baylor at Okie St (6:00)**1/2 (Projected W: Okie St)

Baylor tunes up for UT. A loss here, however, and the Texas game might not be able to salvage the Bears’ season.

3. Mizzou at Nebraska (7:00) *** (Projected W: At risk game)

Mizzou did not want to play a team good enough to beat UT on its Home court, and one desperate to get back into the bubble conversation, just before ending its season with KU. But that is its lot.

WEDNESDAY

4. Oklahoma at Texas Tech (6:30)* (Projected W: Tech)

And you thought Tech at Okie St was a bad game. At least there were a handful of fans in the Stillwater stands.

5. Colorado at Iowa St (6:30) **1/2 (Projected W: ISU)

Now that the Buffs are back on the bubble, this game is huge. And a number of teams can tell you that Iowa St is tough to beat in Ames.

6. Texas A&M at KU (8:00)**** (At risk game)

A&M will come to play with a purpose. But it has been a while since KU has lost on senior night.

–Mark

*Props to Thomas Stearns Eliot

MIDWEEK RECAP

For thirty nine and a half minutes, K-State and Nebraska engaged in a desperate struggle between teams that, between them, had gone 2-0 the previous week against the Nos. 1 and 2 ranked teams in all the land.

Then, suddenly, it was like ESPN switched to Dumb and Dumber, as each coach futilely attempted to out-stupid the other. The only question was who was Jim Carrey and who was Jeff Daniels. Or did it matter?

With 21 seconds remaining on the game clock and approximately 17 on the shot clock, K-State held a two point lead and had possession of the ball. Nebraska was, for some dumb reason, exhibiting no interest in fouling to stop the relentless momentum of the clock, apparently hoping K-State would miss a shot with 5-6 seconds remaining in the game, and the Huskers would grab the rebound, go the length of the court, and tie or win the game at the buzzer.

Heck of a plan. Right up there with investing for retirement in lottery tickets.

But K-State was playing it smart, keeping the ball on the perimeter and in the hands of two good free throw shooters—Pullen and Spradling–just in case Jim (or Jeff) Sadler came to his senses and signaled his team to foul.

Oh, wait. Did I say K-State was playing it smart?? For some inexplicable (that means “beyond dumb”) reason, Jim (or Jeff) Martin called a time out, stopping the clock for Nebraska: not only lengthening the game, but giving , Jim (or Jeff) Sadler an unexpected free opportunity to gather his team around him and discuss, a plan for the next 21 seconds. And that plan was, surprisingly, not entirely dumb: force K-State to in bounds the ball to anyone other than Pullen or Spradling. A plan they executed perfectly.

The ball was thrown into into Henriquez-Roberts, a 51% Free Throw shooter. The Huskers gleefully fouled him immediately. He missed the first free throw, meaning that NU would have plenty of time to at least tie the game in regulation.

After the second FT was made, the Huskers quickly moved the ball into K-State territory, where K-State fouled with 13 seconds on the clock. . It was a stupid foul, but, not giving discredit where discredit is not due, it did not appear too be planned.

Ah, plan planned stupidity was not dead, After missing the first free throw, NU missed the second intentionally. As a result, the Huskers were down three instead of two eight seconds later, when Jim (or Jeff) Martin ordered an intentional foul.

This time, NU made the first free throw. Down two point at the 4.9 second mark, Doc Sadler wisely told his man at the line miss the second–the same ploy, you might recall, that brought K-State to within a tenth of a second of beating Colorado in Boulder in regulation eleven days earlier. Unfortunately, Jim (or Jeff) Sadler had, evidently, failed to explain to his charges that the shot needed to touch the rim in order to be in play and allow NU the opportunity to grab the rebound for a chance to win the game outright or send it into overtime.

In short, Jim (or Jeff) Martin wound up with a huge W in spite of himself (not even mentioning the technical he had incurred earlier that led to a five point lead shrinking to one on a single NU trip down court), picking up a full game in the REAL Standings in the process. Meanwhile, Jim (or Jeff) Sadler’s team fell by the wayside ( and by “wayside,” I mean the NIT)—at least for the time being.

The only other marginally interesting result from the Midweek slate came out of Lubbock, where Colorado picked up a Road victory on the High Plains, not being affected at all by 3,200 feet of elevation. The win, a big plus one in the REAL Standings, kept the Buffs theoretically alive for a first round bye in the Big 12 tournament.

Texas A&M also picked up ground (1/2 game) in the REAL Standings with its victory at Oklahoma in an at risk game.

The remaining games all went as projected to the Home teams: KU over Okie ST, UT over ISU, Mizzou taking down Baylor (though by a surprising margin). That margin, along with Baylor’s overall performance recently, resulted in a downward reclassification of the Bears to Tier 3, trading places with K-State, which climbed over the .500 mark in the Newspaper standings for the first time this season.

REAL STANDINGS: 2-20-11

Tier One (Contenders): KU, UT
Tier Two (Competitors): K-State,Mizzou, Texas A&M
Tier Three (Also rans): Baylor, Colorado, Iowa St, Nebraska, Okie St, Oklahoma, Tech

1. 15-1

UT (12-1) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: None

2. 13.5-2.5

KU (12-2) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at Mizzou

3. 10.5-5.5

A&M (9-4) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at Baylor

4. 9-7

K-State (7-6) Projected L’s: at Nebraska, at UT
Losable games: None

Mizzou (8-5) Projected L’s: at K-State
Losable games: at NU, vs. KU

5.​7-9

Colorado (6-7) Projected L’s: vs. UT, at ISU
Losable games: None

7. 6.5-9.5

Baylor (6-7) Projected L’s: at Mizzou
Losable games: at Okie St, vs. UT

Nebraska (6-7) Projected L’s: at ISU, at CU
Losable games: vs. Mizzou

9.​6-10

Okie St (4-9) Projected L’s: at OU
Losable games: None

10. 5-11

Oklahoma (4-9) Projected L’s: vs. KU, at Tech
Losable games: None

Texas Tech (4-9) Projected L’s: at OSU, at A&M
Losable games: None

12.​ 3-13

Iowa St (1-12) Projected L’s: at K-State
Losable games: None

WHAT TO WATCH (or not)

SATURDAY

1. Mizzou at K-State (11:00)****(Projected W: K-State)
A Fight to the Finish For Fourth place. Which, as you know, comes with a bye in Kansas City.

2. Nebraska at Iowa St (12:30)** (Projected W: ISU)
Nebraska was briefly on the bubble. A win here will not put it back on, but will keep it within shouting distance.

3. Texas Tech at Okie St (12:30) * (Projected W: Okie St)
If this is not the worst game of the Big 12 season, it is within shouting distance.

4. Texas at Colorado (2:00)***1/2 (Projected W: UT)
If Burks, Higgins, and Knutson are all hot at the same time and UT succumbs to the altitude. . .
Which will all happen before pigs fly.

KU at Oklahoma (3:00) *1/2 (Projected W: KU)​If a KU fan is ever going to miss a game, this is it.

6. Texas A&M at Baylor (8:00)***1/2 (At risk game)

Does any A&M game not fall in the at risk category?

–Mark

​​​
​​​ WEEKEND RECAP

What a stunner. Clearly the upset of the year in the Big 12. I doubt that anyone saw this coming. Certainly, the head coach envisioned it–or tried to. But to actually believe it might happen? That realm of fantasy is the province of Pixar animators, not down to earth basketball coaches immersed in REALity.

But, unbelievable as it was, it did happen. And Scott Drew is going to have to deal with it. Farewell, First Round Big 12 bye. Hello, NCAA Bubble.

Honestly, Texas Tech at Home? The worst team south of Ames–unless you consider OU south of Ames? Which it is. But the second worst team south of Ames? To quote the Monday Night Football preview guys: “C’mon, man!”

On the bright side of this equation, who cares about Baylor anyway? Scott Drew is reputedly the most disliked coach in the conference by his peers. It is unlikely any of them shed a tear for his predicament.

Not to mention that KU needs a second UT loss to have a chance at a share of it’s seventh consecutive Big 12 title. UT visits Baylor on the final day of the season, and Baylor is now, officially, a desperate team, a team scouring the countryside in search of a Big W every bit as fervently as Spencer Tracy, Milton Berle, Sid Caesar, Jim Backus, Mickey Rooney, Phil Silvers, Ethel Merman, and Buddy Hackett.

In other words, there could be a major silver lining for KU in Baylor’s loss to Tech if the Jayhawks take care of their own business from here on.

Oh, almost forgot in the excitement of assessing the significance of Baylor’s incredible loss: UT’s quest to join the 2002 Jayhawks as teams of underrated legend was derailed in its final visit to Lincoln in conference play–perhaps ever. That result, while of utmost importance to KU’s ‘02 and ‘11 teams, did not carry the same surprise factor as did Baylor’s. The Bears, after all, lost at Home to a truly pathetic team it defeated handily on the Road earlier in the season.

UT’s loss, being on the Road, to a respectable team, as desperate as K-State was last Monday, was easier to visualize beforehand. For instance, in the Midweek REAL Standings commentary, I noted that this would be “Perhaps UT�s best remaining chance for a loss in conference play.”

Going even further, my bff Dave T stated flatly, for all to see, “Texas will lose to Nebraska on Saturday.” http://rockchalk.com/forum/read.php3?num=2&id=221540&loc=0&thread=221540.

In other Saturday activity, Mizzou eked out its first conference Road victory in an at risk game against the ever tough, but almost always winless, Cyclones of Iowa State. But even Tech managed that. Nevertheless, the first Road win is always the toughest, and winning on the Road anywhere makes a team tougher everywhere, on the Road, at Home, and on neutral courts.

A&M also picked up yet another Road victory in it’s latest in a string of Houdini caliber escapes, taking out an Okie St team that is beginning to approach ISU and OU in futility.

In Saturday’s other two games, KU and K-State both managed to avoid any of the weekend’s drama with fairly easy wins, as projected, over Colorado and Oklahoma, respectively.

​​ REAL STANDINGS: 2-20-11

Tier One (Contenders): KU, UT
Tier Two (Competitors): Baylor, Mizzou, Texas A&M
Tier Three (Also rans): Colorado, Iowa St, K-State, Nebraska, Okie St, Oklahoma, Tech

1. ​​ 14.5-1.5

UT (11-1) Projected L�s: None
Losable games: at Baylor

2. ​​ 13.5-2.5

KU (10-2) Projected L�s: None
Losable games: at Mizzou

3. 10-6

A&M (8-4) Projected L�s: at Baylor, at KU
Losable games: None

4. ​​ 9.5-6.5

Mizzou (7-5) Projected L�s: None
Losable games: at K-State, at NU, vs. KU�

5. 8-8

Baylor (6-6) Projected L�s: at Mizzou
Losable games: at Okie St, vs. UT

6.​ 7.5-8.5

K-State (6-6) Projected L�s: �at Nebraska, at UT
Losable games: vs. Mizzou

Nebraska (6-6) Projected L�s: at ISU, at CU
Losable games: vs. Mizzou

8. �​ 6-10

Colorado (5-7) Projected L�s: �at Tech, vs. UT, at ISU
Losable games: None

Texas Tech (4-8) Projected L�s: at OSU, at A&M
Losable games: None ​​

10. 5.5-10.5

Okie St (4-8) Projected L�s: at KU, at OU
Losable games: vs. Baylor�

11. 5-11

Oklahoma (4-8) Projected L�s: �at A&M, vs. KU, at Tech
Losable games: None

12.​ ​3-13

Iowa St (1-11) Projected L�s: at UT, at K-State
Losable games: None

�​ WHAT TO WATCH (or not)

MONDAY

1. Okie St at KU (8:00)**(Projected W: KU)
Big Monday? Half true: It is Monday.

TUESDAY

2. ​ Iowa St at UT (7:00)* (Projected W: UT)
The sins of the Huskers are visited on the Clones. Oh, the humanity.

WEDNESDAY

3. Colorado at Texas Tech (6:30) **1/2 (Projected W: Tech)
A golden opportunity for Colorado to take a stranglehold on 8th place.

4. �​ Oklahoma at Texas A&M (6:30)**(Projected W: A&M)
​ A&M struggled with Iowa State at Home lady week. This game might not be as easy as you would normally expect from a 3rd place team hosting the 11th.

5. ​ Baylor at Mizzou (8:00)**** (Projected W: MU)
​This must be what Baylor was looking ahead to on Saturday. Mizzou’s unbeaten record at Home is in jeopardy if the Bears’ front line decides to show up.

6.​ K-State at Nebraska (8:00)**** (Projected W: NU)
Which team gets it’s feet back on the ground first? The winner takes a big step closer to March Madness.

​��Mark

MIDWEEK RECAP

Remember when I surmised that KU, after stating all season that it was the second best team in the Big 12, had improved to the extent that it was the best, notwithstanding losing at Home to UT and occupying second place in both the REAL and newspaper standings?

Remember that? It was like a whole four days ago.

Well, as Emily Litella would say: Never mind.

As Arthur Fonzarelli would say: I was wr. . .

Wr. . .

Wr. . .

Well, you know.

Unless you’re too high class to admit to knowing of Emily and Arthur.

Or too young.

At any rate, I didn’t back off my assertion as to the Jayhawks’ prowess because they lost at K-State. The best team in the conference could have lost in Manhattan Monday night. In fact, the best team in the country—which is what KU was supposed to have been according to the polls—could have suffered that fate. There is no shame in losing on the Road to a team that was supposed to be a Top 5 team that has dropped out of the Top 25 and is desperate to save its season, led by a player who was supposed to be an All-American and Big 12 POY.

No, it is not that the Jayhawks lost. It is that they didn’t put up a fight. They appeared to panic when things did not go their way early, hurrying (one of John Wooden’s mortal sins) as if they thought they would be awarded 7 or 8 points each trip down court if they only scored fast enough.

So, congratulations to UT on its Big 12 championship. The only REAL question remaining is whether they will match KU’s 2002 undefeated season in conference play, or finish as just another 15-1 team if they get ambushed by Nebraska, Colorado, or Baylor. Or continue to get owned by K-State in both sports that matter.

As for the Jayhawks, there is still time for them to catch UT on the court if not in the standings. But first, they will have to learn from the K-State game to play 40 minutes every game, each possession indistinguishable from the next one and the last one, whether in front by 15 points or trailing by that many.

And there is time.

There is always time. At least until the final buzzer of the final game.

The other result of significance in the M-W games was Nebraska taking down Oklahoma 59-58 for its first Road win of the conference season. Of course, they owe a debt of gratitude to the Sooners, who, trailing by three points in the final five seconds, made no attempt to foul in order to stop the clock after Cade Davis knocked down a two point er from the corner.

In fairness to the OU players, they all thought the shot was a three pointer and that the game had been tied, ignoring both the placement Davis’s right foot, smack dab on the three point line, and the official’s signal to the official scorer that the basket counted for two, not three, points.

I mean, when did paying attention become part of a basketball player’s job description?

Regardless of how it came about, the Cornhuskers, like K-State, picked up a full game in the REAL Standings.

In other games, the Home teams all won as projected: Mizzou over Tech, A&M over Iowa St, and UT over Okie St.

REAL STANDINGS: 2-17-11

Tier One (Contenders): KU, UT
Tier Two (Competitors): Baylor, Mizzou, Texas A&M
Tier Three (Also rans): Colorado, Iowa St, K-State, Nebraska, Okie St, Oklahoma, Tech

1. 15.5-0.5

UT (11-0) Projected L’s: None
Losable game: at Baylor

2. 13.5-2.5

KU (9-2) Projected L’s: None
Losable game: at Mizzou

3. 9.5-6.5

A&M (7-4) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at KU
Losable game: at Okie St

4. 9-7

Mizzou (6-5) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at ISU, at K-State, at NU, vs. KU

Baylor (6-5) Projected L: at Mizzou
Losable games: at Okie St, vs. UT

6. 7.5-8.5

K-State (5-6) Projected L’s: at Nebraska, at UT
Losable game: vs. Mizzou

7. 6.5-9.5

Nebraska (5-6) Projected L’s: vs. UT, at ISU, at CU
Losable games: vs. Mizzou

8. 6-10

Colorado (5-6) Projected L’s: at KU, at Tech, vs. UT, at ISU
Losable games: None

Okie St (4-7) Projected L’s: at KU, at OU
Losable games: vs. A&M, vs. Baylor

10. 5-11

Oklahoma (4-7) Projected L’s: at K-State, at A&M, vs. KU, at Tech
Losable games: None

Texas Tech (3-8) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at OSU, at A&M
Losable games: None

12. 3.5-12.5

Iowa St (1-10) Projected L’s: at UT, at K-State
Losable game: vs. Mizzou

WHAT TO WATCH (or not)
SATURDAY
1. Mizzou at Iowa St (12:30) **1/2

Can Mizzou claim its first Road win of the conference season? Maybe, but the way ISU has competed all year, MU had better come to play every second for 40 minutes (or longer).

2. UT at Nebraska (12:30) ***1/2 (Projected W: UT)

Perhaps UT’s best remaining chance for a loss in conference play.

3. Colorado at KU (1:00) **1/2 (Projected W: KU)

Fortunately, for the Jayhawks, they have a Home game vs. a non-contender to try to get their—uh—stuff together.

4. Oklahoma at K-State (3:00) **1/2 (Projected W: K-State)

If there was ever a game that a team could not afford to lose, this game is it for K-State.

5. Texas Tech at Baylor (7:00)*1/2 (Projected W: BU)

Baylor beat Tech in Lubbock, and the Bears weren’t even playing competently then. . .

6. Texas A&M at Okie St (8:00) **1/2 (At risk game)

Will the Cowboys ever win again?

–Mark

WEEKEND RECAP

In the pre-season REAL Standings, I opined that UT was the best team in the Big 12, notwithstanding their loss to commone opponent USC and their loss at Home to UConn. I felt this way because they had contributors at every position. They had three players—Corey Joseph, J’Covan Brown, and Jordan Hamilton—who could create their own shots; and a point guard, freshman though he be, who could create for his teammates. Plus, they played tough D.

The Jayhawks, on the other hand, while having an abundance of talented athletes, were too reliant on the Marcus Twins (as one TV commentator recently dubbed them), and had one consistent perimeter threat in Tyrell Reed, who was not a threat to create his own shot off the dribble.

So I was not surprised when UT happened to be the team to break the Jayhawks’ Home court win streak. They were simply a better team.

But that was then. This is now. Although UT has the inside track to the Big 12 championship, they are not, at this point in time, clearly the best team in the conference. In fact, in my opinion, they are not the best team at all, notwithstanding their 10-0 record and W in Lawrence.

Times have changed. Whereas UT is every bit as good as they were that Saturday in Lawrence, the Hawks are an entirely different team. They have gone from a team that would stagnate for long periods of time, resulting in the loss of numerous double digit leads, to a team with superb ball movement at every position. It seems that everyone who starts or enters the game is a threat to score or find someone in position to do so.

In short, this team has better ball movement than any KU team I can recall. Not that the ’97, ’02, or ’08 teams were slouches. But it reminds me most of the ’88 Jayhawks once that National Championship to be team hit its stride.

What this type of movement does, along with the patience that comes from having three seniors and three juniors among your top eight players, is ensure that you will not go long stretches without scoring an easy basket or two. You will not be on the receiving of 10-0 or 13-2 runs. Fifteen point leads will not disappear quickly. They will have to be whittled away, at the same time that you are a threat to score on numerous consecutive possessions yourself. Such is the beauty of getting a high percentage shot virtually every trip down court, as opposed to making unforced turnovers or settling for a guarded three pointer in the final seconds of the shot clock.

Not to mention that it frustrates the hell out of the defense. And no defense can keep a team with the kind of ball movement the Hawks have displayed recently from getting high percentage shots in 35 seconds. All they can do is prolong the inevitable—a hollow victory, which, ultimately, is frustrating and draining, both physically and emotionally.

Nor are the Jayhawks likely to go backward in this respect. The type of team cohesiveness and ball movement they are now demonstrating is harder to master than riding a bicycle (if it weren’t, everyone would do it), but, like bike riding, it is not something you forget. Especially when doing it right is so rewarding and so much fun.

The question, then, is what about the Jayhawks’ D? It is still a work in progress, and will need to improve to make a serious run at winning it all in April. But, while not a lock-down D by any means, it, too, is headed in the right direction. In the meantime, it is good enough to keep its offense from being outscored. If it progresses the way the offense has in the next few weeks. . .

As for Saturday’s games, KU alumnus Tad Boyle was a tenth of a second from being dubbed Tad Bozo, as he deliberately took a situation in which the worst case scenario was overtime and turned it into an apparent loss in regulation.

With a three point lead and 3.9 seconds on the clock, he called for a foul on Jacob Pullen, which was effected 30 feet from the basket, while Pullen, his back to the basket, was dribbling toward the sideline. His chances of getting off anything resembling a decent shot attempt before the buzzer was somewhere between slim and none. And even if he had somehow contorted his body into position where he could convert a miracle last second three point heave while being heavily guarded, the Buffs would still have been vertical, having five additional minutes in which to claim victory against a team that had spent 39 minutes, 56.1 seconds floundering around like—well, like they did for 39:56 in their most recent game at Iowa St.

Instead? Pullen is bailed out. He is allowed to score with the clock stopped. He hits his first free throw to cut the lead to two. He misses the second, and a scramble results in the ball going out of bounds and back to K-State with 1.1 seconds on the clock. Suddenly, playing an additional five minutes is not the worst that can happen to the Buffs. Suddenly, the worst that can happen is a three point basket at the buzzer sending Colorado off the court with an immediate loss.

And guess what? The ball gets thrown in, and K-State hits a three pointer. Game over. Colorado loses in regulation.

Except for the beauty that is instant replay.

Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good.

Or smart.

Not to say that there is never a time for the strategy of fouling while up three. There is. It is when the team with the lead cannot afford going into OT. Where a tie is essentially the same thing as a loss. As in when the other team is clearly superior, your guys have given everything they have, and they don’t have another five minutes left in them. Or when your key player—think Danny Manning—has just fouled out.

But if you have a fighting chance in OT—or, in this case, you are a comparable team AT HOME—you play straight up D and say, “Catch us if you can. If you’re good enough to make the shot—and we will have five players zealously protecting the three point line–we’ll take our chances in overtime.”

You don’t say, “How would you like a chance to beat us in regulation?”

In other games, the only meaningful outcome Saturday, as measured by the REAL Standings, was Texas A&M picking up its second Road W of the week, following its overtime win at Colorado, with a hard fought victory in Lubbock, as Tech failed to connect on its attempt at a last second game tying three pointer.

The other four games all went as projected with Home court victories by KU over ISU, UT squeaking past Baylor, Nebraska controlling the game against Okie St from start to finish, and Mizzou having no trouble with Oklahoma.

REAL STANDINGS: 2-13-11
Tier One (Contenders): KU, UT
Tier Two (Competitors): Baylor, Mizzou, Texas A&M
Tier Three (Also rans): Colorado, Iowa St, K-State, Nebraska, Okie St, Oklahoma, Tech

1. 15.5-0.5

UT (10-0) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at Baylor

2. 14.5-1.5

KU (9-1) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at Mizzou

3. 9.5-6.5
A&M (6-4) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at KU
Losable games: at Okie St

4. 9-7

Mizzou (5-5) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at ISU, at K-State, at NU, vs. KU

Baylor (6-5) Projected L’s: at Mizzou
Losable games: at Okie St, vs. UT

6. 6.5-9.5

K-State (4-6) Projected L’s: vs. KU, at Nebraska, at UT
Losable games: vs. Mizzou

7. 6-10

Colorado (5-6) Projected L’s: at KU, at Tech, vs. UT, at ISU
Losable games: vs. A&M

Oklahoma (4-6) Projected L’s: at K-State, at A&M, vs. KU, at Tech
Losable games: None

Okie St (4-6) Projected L’s: at UT, at KU, at OU
Losable games: vs. A&M, vs. Baylor

10. 5-11

Texas Tech (3-7) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at Baylor, at OSU, at A&M
Losable games: None

11. 5.5-10.5

Nebraska (4-6) Projected L’s: at OU, vs. UT, at ISU, at CU
Losable games: vs. Mizzou

12. 3.5-12.5

Iowa St (1-9) Projected L’s: at A&M, at UT, at K-State
Losable games: vs. Mizzou

WHAT TO WATCH (or not)

MONDAY

1. KU at K-State (8:00)*** (Projected W: KU)
Once upon a time, there was a rivalry. Long, long ago in a galaxy far, far away. . .

TUESDAY

2. Tech at Mizzou (6:00)* (Projected W: Mizzou)
Snooze city, . .

3. Wayland Baptist at Baylor (7:00)-1* (Projected W: Baylor)
Why? Just why?

WEDNESDAY

4. Iowa St at A&M (7:00)*1/2 (Projected W: A&M)
As they say in Paris (France, not Texas), “Pathetique.”

5. Okie St at UT (8:00)*1/2 (Projected W: UT)
If this were a movie, it would be The Roommate.

6. Nebraska at OU (8:00)*1/2 (Projected W: OU)
Can’t these two schools give us one more football game before NU joins the Big 10, instead of this aberration?

–Mark

MIDWEEK RECAP

The schizophrenic Aggies of Texas A&M made the only noise in the Monday/Wednesday games this week. Their overtime win at Boulder, a game in which they trailed by three points with three seconds remaining in regulation, compensated for their loss four days earlier to Baylor at Home. Minus 1game in the REAL Standings on Saturday; Plus 1 on Wednesday.

In other action, the Projected winners all–guess what–won. KU defeated Mizzou handily in Lawrence, Baylor took down Nebraska in Waco, and UT knocked OU for a loop in Norman.
All in all, no change at the top of REAL Standings, other than the conference season getti
ng one game closer to its end. Not that anyone was pinning his or hopes on OU bringing UT back to the two team pack in contention for the Big 12 title. . .

Otherwise, the primary battle is the three way race between Mizzou, Baylor, and A&M for the other two byes in the first round of the conference’s post-season tournament. Or can K-State, with Curtis Kelly back in the picture, make a run for the prestigious final bye?

REAL STANDINGS: 2-11-11

Tier One (Contenders): KU, UT
Tier Two (Competitors): Baylor, Mizzou
Tier Three (Also rans): Colorado, Iowa St, K-State, Nebraska, Okie St, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Tech

1. 15.5-0.5
UT (9-0) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at Baylor

2. 14.5-1.5
KU (8-1) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at Mizzou

3. 9-7
Mizzou (4-5) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at ISU, at K-State, at NU, vs. KU

Baylor (6-4) Projected L’s: at UT, at Mizzou
Losable games: at Okie St, vs. UT

5. 8-8
A&M (5-4) Projected L’s: at Tech, at Okie St, at Baylor, at KU
Losable games: None

6. 7-9
Colorado (4-5) Projected L’s: at KU, at Tech, vs. UT, at ISU
Losable games: vs. A&M

7. 6.5-9.5
K-State (4-5) Projected L’s: at CU, vs. KU, at Nebraska, at UT
Losable games: vs. Mizzou

Okie St (4-5) Projected L’s: at NU, at UT, at KU, at OU
Losable games: vs. Baylor

9. 6-10
Oklahoma (4-5) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at K-State, at A&M, vs. KU, at Tech
Losable games: None

Texas Tech (3-6) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at Baylor, at OSU, at A&M
Losable games: None

11. 5.5-10.5
Nebraska (3-6) Projected L’s: at OU, vs. UT, at ISU, at CU
Losable games: vs. Mizzou

12. 3.5-12.5
Iowa St (1-8) Projected L’s: at KU, at A&M, at UT, at K-State
Losable games: vs. Mizzou
WHAT TO WATCH (or not)

SATURDAY

1. A&M at Tech (12:30)*** (Projected W: Tech)
How many overtime games can A&M play in one season? This certainly has the potential of being another one.

2. . Oklahoma at Mizzou (12:30)*** (Projected W: Mizzou)
Mizzou’s formula is simple: Win at Home games, Lose on the Road. Unfortunately for OU, this is a Home game for the Tigers.

3. Baylor at Texas (3:00)***1/2 (Projected W: UT)
Baylor’s chance against UT will be in Waco, not Saturday afternoon in Austin. But this game provides an opportunity to assess their progress .

4. Iowa St at KU (3:00)** (Projected W: KU)
Iowa St has led or been tied in the final minute in six of their eight conference losses. In fact, Frank Martin was almost apologetic for subjecting the Cyclones to a last second loss last Saturday. There will be no near-apologies this week. ISU will be lucky to be tied or ahead in the FIRST minute.

5. Okie St at Nebraska (6:00)**1/2 (Projected W: NU)
This game could be huge when it comes time for seeding the NIT.

6. K-State at Colorado (7:00)*** (Projected W: CU)
Riddle me this, Batman: Does Curtis Kelly have two first names or two last names? More importantly, does he still matter? Tune in and find out.

–Mark

WEEKEND RECAP

The two biggest winners of the weekend were K-State and Baylor, both picking up rare Road W’s. K-State picked up its first conference victory away from the Octagon of Doom, downing Iowa St by a point on a busted play in the game’s final three seconds, while Baylor secured a two point victory in overtime at A&M. But, as they say in golf, they don’t ask how, only how many.

As a result, K-State picked up a full game in the REAL Standings, improving to 6.5-9.5, and keeping alive its hopes of sneaking into the NCAA tournament five weeks from now.

Baylor, with its second Road W of the season, moves from a projection of 6.5 W’s to 9, as the result of trading Tiers with A&M, losers of two Home games in six days.

One side effect of this turn of events is that UT is no longer projected to go undefeated: Baylor, playing at the level of a Tier Two team, looks to pose some level of challenge to the Longhorns in Waco—at least to the extent that UT will need to come to play on March 5.

The other four games went as projected: KU winning at Nebraska for, perhaps, the final time; and Mizzou, Okie St, and UT victorious at Home vs. Colorado, OU, and Texas Tech respectively.

REAL STANDINGS: 2-3-11

Tier One (Contenders): KU, UT
Tier Two (Competitors): Baylor, Mizzou
Tier Three (Also rans): Colorado, Iowa St, K-State, Nebraska, Okie St, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Tech

1. 15.5-0.5

UT (8-0) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at Baylor

2. 14.5-1.5

KU (7-1) Projected L’s: None
Losable games: at Mizzou

3. 9-7

Mizzou (4-4) Projected L’s: at KU
Losable games: at ISU, at K-State, at NU, vs. KU

Baylor (5-4) Projected L’s: at UT, at Mizzou
Losable games: at Okie St, vs. UT

5. 7-9

A&M (4-4) Projected L’s: at CU, at Tech, at Okie St, at Baylor, at KU
Losable games: None

Colorado (4-5) Projected L’s: at KU, at Tech, vs. UT, at ISU
Losable games: vs. A&M
7. 6.5-9.5

K-State (4-5) Projected L’s: at CU, vs. KU, at Nebraska, at UT
Losable games: vs. Mizzou

Okie St (4-5) Projected L’s: at NU, at UT, at KU, at OU
Losable games: vs. Baylor

9. 6-10

Oklahoma (4-4) Projected L’s: vs. UT, at Mizzou, at K-State, at A&M, vs. KU, at Tech
Losable games: None

Texas Tech (3-6) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at Baylor, at OSU, at A&M
Losable games: None

11. 5.5-10.5

Nebraska (3-5) Projected L’s: at BU, at OU, vs. UT, at ISU, at CU
Losable games: vs. Mizzou

12. 3.5-12.5

Iowa St (1-8) Projected L’s: at KU, at A&M, at UT, at K-State
Losable games: vs. Mizzou

WHAT TO WATCH

MONDAY

1. Mizzou @ KU (8:00)**** (Projected W: KU)

Mizzou is winless on the Road, undefeated at Home in conference play. Look for them to play their most intense, most focused Road game of the season. They have nothing to lose at this point.

WEDNESDAY

2. Nebraska @ Baylor (7:00)*** (Projected W: Baylor)

Baylor’s talent is beginning to grow up. Doesn’t bode well for the Huskers, who would like to win at least one Road game in their final Missouri Valley/Big 6/7/8/12 go around.

3. A&M at Colorado (7:00)*** (Projected W: Colorado)

Teams on three game losing streaks, two at Home, have long looked at Boulder as a place to get well. No longer. . .

4. Texas at Oklahoma (8:00)** (Projected W: UT)

Is it possible that Norman, Oklahoma could be the Waterloo of UT’s dream of an undefeated conference season?

Anything’s possible.

–Mark