Sagarin/Massey predictions for Vermont game

Only a couple more hours to wait. That's for the beginning of theregular season for Kansas, of course. How long we'll have to wait before Massey releases his first ratings of the season, I have no idea. For now, I'll go with his final ratings from last season. Meanwhile, Sagarin has updated his ratings through games of Thursday, and despite not having played a game yet, Kansas has dropped to #6. Undefeated Memphis and North Carolina State have managed to claw their way into the #1 and #3 spots, respectively, forcing the top teams from the startings ratings down.

Sagarin's latest ratings give Kansas a 24.0 point edge against Vermont. Meanwhile, Massey's final ratings from last season predict a 22.6 point victory for Kansas. Yes, Vermont was an NCAA Tournament team, having won its conference. The pundits apparently think that Kansas is an improved team, despite losing Graves and Padgett, thanks to four seniors with extensive experience and a highly regarded freshman class, who should give the Jayhawks the kind of depth they lacked last season. Vermont is also supposedly improved, though I have no information on who they lost and added; the Catamounts are expected to win their conference again, and the program seems to be gaining in strength over the last few years.

Of course, with no games to evaluate, the performance, inconsistency, and trend quantities from the Sagarin ratings are unavailable. The RPI and records are from last season.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------
Kansas         #  6   #      #  6   # 17                               
Vermont        #162   #      #161   #166                                

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----     ----   ----     ----
Kansas         # 17   # 11   # 15   # 22   # 59     # 15   # 10     24-9
Vermont        #155   #250   #179   #421   #111     #115   #274     22-9

The statistic that catches my eye is the difference between Vermont's offense and defense ratings. Clearly defense is Vermont's strong suit. That might suggest a lower scoring affair.

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