Sagarin/Massey predictions for St. Joseph's game

Let's pretend for a moment that you are Jeff Sagarin. Your startingratings predicted a 24-point blowout by Kansas over Vermont, but instead, the Jayhawks escaped with a mere 7-point victory, and at home, no less. How do you adjust your ratings? Is Kansas overrated, or is Vermont underrated? [Karl Malden mode] What would you do? What WOULD you do? [/Karl Malden mode]

Well, in the absence of additional information, it makes sense to assume that it's both and split the difference. And so it appears that the subsequent Sagarin ratings reflected such an adjustment, until today, that is. After a brief stint at #85 in Saturday's ratings, Kansas was back at #36 in Sunday's ratings as other teams had their ratings adjusted following Saturday's play. Then on Monday, Kansas plummeted to #94, based on the inclusion of the results from Sunday's games. Now here it is on Tuesday, and Kansas is back at #3.

It's been kind of fun to see how volatile the ratings are this early in the season. Duke started in the top spot, then surrendered it to Memphis, which went on to lose to Syracuse, leaving the door open for the undefeated Orangemen to jump into the top spot. But then on Monday, North Carolina State leapfrogged Syracuse. Now here it is Tuesday, and Duke is back on top. Indeed, today's ratings look suspiciously similar (though not identical) to the starting ratings. I would say that Sagarin either made a deliberate change in his computation method over the weekend, or fixed a bug. Those first few sets of ratings, not including the starting ratings, looked like they had none of the preseason bias included in them, but today's ratings look like they are once again dominated by the preseason bias.

Kansas gets to play another season opener on Tuesday (the season opener for Saint Joseph's, of course). So the Hawks have no track record from this season on which to base a prediction. They return three starters, but it is unlikely that star Pat Carroll will play due to a dislocated shoulder. The home advantage gives Kansas a 6.6-point edge. Yesterday's ratings predicted a loss for the Jayhawks.

Looking at the Big XII, Kansas started the season against a decent team, but only good enough for second place in strength of schedule (as of Monday's Sagarin ratings). Colorado's recent game against #9 Michigan gives the Buffaloes strength of schedule honors for the moment. Kansas State's 9-point win over Division II North Dakota State was enough to keep them from taking honors for easiest schedule, which instead went to Texas A&M for playing 0-4 North Carolina A&T. At least the Aggies won big, earning them #188 in the Sagarin ratings (and #91 in the Pure Points ratings), whereas the Kitties are mired at #293 (and #300 in Pure Points, and that's out of 332 teams). Of course, all that changed on Tuesday when Sagarin presumably bumped up the amount of bias that goes into his early season ratings.

Massey still hasn't released any ratings for the current season. Based on last season's ratings, Saint Joseph's would have a 0.3-point edge in today's game.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------
Kansas         #  3   #214   #  4   #  4                               
St. Joseph's   #  8   #      #  8   # 11                                

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----     ----   ----     ----
Kansas         # 17   # 11   # 15   # 22   # 59     # 15   # 10     24-9
St. Joseph's   #  3   # 32   #  4   # 18   # 16     #  3   # 46     30-2

The RPI and records are still from last season. The Hawks had a fabulous season, and there was the Billy Packer controversy as well, which had to do with whether they deserved a #1 seed or not. Based on record alone, the answer should have been yes, but the controversy was based on strength of schedule. The Hawks went respectably deep enough into the tournament.

Here is Kansas' season, based on Tuesday's revised Sagarin ratings:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #160 Vermont                     68  61   +22.76   -15.76
HOME   # 11 Saint Joseph's                        +6.64             0.727
HOME   # 47 Nevada                               +13.32             0.887
HOME   #104 Pacific                              +18.55             0.954
HOME   #140 TCU                                  +21.51             0.975
HOME   # 78 Louisiana-Lafayette                  +16.74             0.936
HOME   # 43 South Carolina                       +12.96             0.881
HOME   # 70 Wis.-Milwaukee                       +15.91             0.926
HOME   # 15 Georgia Tech                          +7.73             0.759
HOME   #169 Texas A&M                            +23.43             0.983
AWAY   #  3 Kentucky                              -4.27             0.349
AWAY   # 53 Iowa State                            +5.33             0.686
AWAY   # 52 Colorado                              +5.28             0.684
HOME   # 75 Nebraska                             +16.37             0.932
AWAY   # 50 Villanova                             +5.22             0.682
AWAY   #157 Baylor                               +14.25             0.902
HOME   #  7 Texas                                 +5.70             0.698
HOME   # 31 Missouri                             +11.26             0.847
AWAY   # 75 Nebraska                              +7.93             0.765
AWAY   # 84 Kansas State                          +8.68             0.785
HOME   # 52 Colorado                             +13.72             0.894
AWAY   # 28 Texas Tech                            +1.78             0.564
HOME   # 53 Iowa State                           +13.77             0.895
AWAY   # 23 Oklahoma                              +0.64             0.523
HOME   #  5 Oklahoma State                        +4.96             0.674
HOME   # 84 Kansas State                         +17.12             0.940
AWAY   # 31 Missouri                              +2.82             0.601
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