Sagarin/Massey predictions for Pacific game

I'm checking the various web sites a little earlier in the day than usual,so I'm still getting Sagarin's Friday ratings, which are based on games through Thursday; they are still Bayesian. Massey still hasn't released his 2005 ratings; perhaps he is waiting until the preseason bias can be removed from the ratings.

Anyway, Sagarin's Pure Points ratings predict a 21-point victory for Kansas against Pacific and an 89 percent chance of winning the game. Those two lopsided wins have Kansas performing 9.9 points above its biased Sagarin rating, while Pacific's two wins have the Tigers performing 5.4 points above their rating. The trends aren't statistically significant at this stage of the season, so it's best to ignore them for now, but it's interesting to see how Kansas underperformed against Vermont. What's also interesting is to see how the three Jayhawk opponents currently rank #29, #30, and #31 in the Pure Points ratings.

New to the tabulation below are the Dolphin ratings. You can read more about the various ratings at http://www.dolphinsim.com/ratings/ncaa_mbb/index_rpi.html Most eye-catching is that Kansas and Pacific are #1 and #6 in the Dolphin RPI calculation. The Dolphin IPRI is the "Improved" RPI, which carries the computations to infinite depth with equal weight given to all games, whereas the RPI stops with the opponents' opponents and weights the opponents' records twice as much as the other two components.

Massey, if you're reading this, I'd like to call a couple of errors to your attention. First of all, Kansas has played Nevada only once, namely on November 29. Your web site also lists a second game, with the identical final score, on January 00, which causes your web site to also list Kansas with a 4-0 record. Second of all, your web site lists Pacific as being from Forest Grove, OR, when in reality the University of the Pacific is located in Stockton, CA.

The RPI in the second table is from last season.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------
Kansas         #  1   # 39   #  3   #  1   +9.9   17.4   +13.0 +/- 11.5
Pacific        # 40   #122   # 23   # 65   +5.4    7.1   -10.0 +/-  0.0 

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----     ----   ----     ----
Kansas         #  2   # 11   #      #  9   # 18     # 15   # 10      3-0
Pacific        # 43   #165   #      #100   # 45     # 65   #160      2-0

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----
Kansas         #  8   #  7   #  2   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  3   0.698
Pacific        # 65   # 63   # 84   # 24   #  6   # 36   # 68   0.014

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   # 29 Vermont                     68  61   +16.74    -9.74
HOME   # 30 Saint Joseph's              91  51   +16.77   +23.23
HOME   # 31 Nevada                      85  52   +16.79   +16.21
HOME   # 65 Pacific                              +21.00             0.887
HOME   # 54 TCU                                  +19.51             0.869
HOME   #105 Louisiana-Lafayette                  +23.97             0.916
HOME   # 28 South Carolina                       +16.28             0.826
HOME   # 15 Wis.-Milwaukee                       +12.96             0.772
HOME   # 10 Georgia Tech                         +10.33             0.724
HOME   # 95 Texas A&M                            +23.35             0.911
AWAY   # 16 Kentucky                              +6.06             0.636
AWAY   # 84 Iowa State                           +14.95             0.805
AWAY   # 70 Colorado                             +14.23             0.794
HOME   # 48 Nebraska                             +19.05             0.864
AWAY   # 78 Villanova                            +14.46             0.797
AWAY   #275 Baylor                               +27.55             0.944
HOME   #  8 Texas                                +10.11             0.720
HOME   #161 Missouri                             +27.46             0.943
AWAY   # 48 Nebraska                             +12.05             0.756
AWAY   # 81 Kansas State                         +14.88             0.804
HOME   # 70 Colorado                             +21.23             0.889
AWAY   #  4 Texas Tech                            +0.22             0.505
HOME   # 84 Iowa State                           +21.95             0.897
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma                             +11.44             0.745
HOME   #  6 Oklahoma State                        +9.85             0.715
HOME   # 81 Kansas State                         +21.88             0.896
AWAY   #161 Missouri                             +20.46             0.881

The projected season record for Kansas is still 22-5, though it's close to rounding the other way, making it 23-4.

Here is Pacific's season to date:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   #246 San Jose State              70  52    +7.58   +10.42
HOME   # 89 Santa Clara                 71  65    +5.59    +0.41
AWAY   #  1 Kansas                               -21.00             0.028
-->