Sagarin/Massey predictions for TCU game

Well, Sagarin has switched back to unbiased ratings, probably for goodthis season, as teams are now multiply connected and the ratings have stabilized, relatively speaking. Very interesting to see the Panthers of Wisconsin-Milwaukee at #4 in the Thursday Sagarin ratings (based on games through Wednesday); they are the opponent for the annual game at Kemper Arena. The Big XII has pretty good representation in the Top 10, with Oklahoma State currently at #1 (undoubtedly by virtue of their big win over otherwise undefeated Syracuse), Kansas at #5, and Texas Tech at #7.

Massey still hasn't updated his ratings page since last season, so either he doesn't think the ratings have stabilized sufficiently, or something else is going on. His rankings are available, however, and it appears that TCU's biggest weakness is their defense. Massey disagrees rather significantly with Sagarin over TCU's strength of schedule. Sagarin has them at #12, with a much stronger schedule than KU's, but Massey has them at #62, with a weaker schedule than KU's. The Horned Frogs have played one NAIA Division II school and lost to Corpus Christi, but they also beat an otherwise undefeated Texas Tech team. Recent games haven't shown the brilliance that allowed them to beat the Red Raiders, thus they are showing a downward trend of only marginal significance. Kansas isn't showing any significant trend at this point in the season.

Jerry Palm now has an RPI calculation out for this season. Through Monday's games, Kansas is #1 with the #3 schedule, and TCU is #18 with the #12 schedule. Meanwhile, Dolphin shows TCU with a numerically higher value than Kansas for schedule. Clearly, there is lots of disagreement over schedule strength at this point in the season.

The Sagarin Pure Points ratings are giving Kansas an 11.5-point edge in today's game, with an 88 percent chance of winning. The Jayhawks are playing 6.4 points above its Sagarin Pure Points rating, while TCU is playing just 2.2 points above their rating. That could add another 4.2 points to the edge. I wouldn't put too much stock in the trends at this point in the season. The inconsistency figures are interesting. Despite those two blowout wins, Kansas is actually showing better consistency than the national average. TCU has been less consistent than Kansas; which Horned Frog team will show up tonight?


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------
Kansas         #  5   #132   # 15   #  4   +6.4   10.0   +0.54 +/- 5.44
TCU            # 11   # 12   # 10   # 29   +2.2   13.1   -3.72 +/- 2.97 

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----     ----   ----     ----
Kansas         #  6   # 33   #      # 14   # 40     #  4   #  3      4-0
TCU            # 66   # 62   #      # 55   #139     # 18   # 12      5-2

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----
Kansas         # 10   #  9   #  5   #  1   #  2   #  2   #  5   0.480
TCU            # 47   # 46   # 59   # 35   # 15   # 34   # 51   0.563

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   # 24 Vermont                     68  61   +10.43    -3.43
HOME   #189 Saint Joseph's              91  51   +24.13   +15.87
HOME   # 96 Nevada                      85  52   +19.05   +13.95
HOME   # 34 Pacific                     81  70   +11.98    -0.98
HOME   # 29 TCU                                  +11.52             0.876
HOME   #152 Louisiana-Lafayette                  +22.21             0.987
HOME   # 46 South Carolina                       +14.31             0.925
HOME   #  7 Wis.-Milwaukee                        +5.55             0.711
HOME   #  3 Georgia Tech                          +0.98             0.539
HOME   # 53 Texas A&M                            +15.26             0.937
AWAY   # 27 Kentucky                              +3.52             0.638
AWAY   # 88 Iowa State                           +10.53             0.855
AWAY   # 95 Colorado                             +11.21             0.870
HOME   # 54 Nebraska                             +15.28             0.937
AWAY   #129 Villanova                            +13.31             0.909
AWAY   #317 Baylor                               +27.44             0.997
HOME   #  8 Texas                                 +5.78             0.719
HOME   #190 Missouri                             +24.30             0.993
AWAY   # 54 Nebraska                              +7.52             0.775
AWAY   #141 Kansas State                         +13.81             0.917
HOME   # 95 Colorado                             +18.97             0.972
AWAY   #  2 Texas Tech                            -7.02             0.241
HOME   # 88 Iowa State                           +18.29             0.967
AWAY   # 25 Oklahoma                              +2.74             0.608
HOME   #  1 Oklahoma State                        +0.63             0.525
HOME   #141 Kansas State                         +21.57             0.985
AWAY   #190 Missouri                             +16.54             0.952

The projected season record for Kansas is now at 23-4.  Note that all but
the road game in Lubbock are projected wins, though the home game with the
Cowboys is very close.

Here is TCU's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #173 Texas-Arlington             90  61   +15.62   +13.38
NAIA        Shawnee State               74  60
HOME   #  2 Texas Tech                  83  68    -6.90   +21.90
HOME   # 49 Old Dominion                62  67    +7.10   -12.10
AWAY   # 71 Texas A&M-CorpusChristi     79  85    +1.60    -7.60
NEUT   # 74 Florida State               71  70    +5.61    -4.61
AWAY   #168 North Texas                 88  78    +7.63    +2.37
AWAY   #  4 Kansas                               -11.52             0.190
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