Sagarin/Massey predictions for Lafayette game

I'll be on the road tomorrow, so I'm doing the prediction for theLouisiana Lafayette game a day early. Fortunately, there usually aren't very many games on Friday, so I doubt the ratings will change much.

Sagarin has new ratings out based on the results of Thursday's games. Massey has updated his rankings, but still hasn't put up a new ratings page for this season. Dolphin's numbers have changed, but he still has Kansas at 4-0, so he apparently isn't including all the results from Thursday yet.

On paper, this should be one of the easier games this season. Sagarin is giving Kansas a 22.6-point edge and a greater than 99 percent chance of winning the game (the only easier games are against Baylor, Missouri, and Kansas State, plus the already played one against Saint Joseph's). Kansas is playing 4.3 points better than its Sagarin Pure Points rating, while the Ragin' Cajuns are playing essentially right on their rating, so it could be a 27-point blowout (or more, if the starters don't lose interest in the second half and maintain a killer instinct).

Lafayette fattened up on a Division II school prior to coming to Allen Field House. Their best game of the season was their first game against LaTech. They also played well against Rice, but performed below expectation in their other three Division I games, leading to a downward trend of marginal significance. Massey gives their offense a respectable ranking, but their defense is second tier, so this could be a higher scoring affair.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  3   # 93   #  8   #  4   +4.3    8.6   +0.30 +/- 3.12
Lafayette      #144   #116   #166   #114   -0.1   11.6   -3.84 +/- 3.59 

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====     ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  6   # 38   #      # 10   # 49     #  4   #  3      5-0
Lafayette      #104   # 45   #      # 39   #180     #154   #103      3-3

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         # 11   # 10   #  5   #  1   #  2   #  4   #  5   0.486
Lafayette      #135   #136   # 85   #136   #134   #146   #135   0.523

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 24 Vermont                     68  61   +12.52    -5.52
HOME   #186 Saint Joseph's              91  51   +26.38   +13.62
HOME   # 95 Nevada                      85  52   +21.19   +11.81
HOME   # 30 Pacific                     81  70   +13.95    -2.95
HOME   # 35 TCU                         93  74   +14.71    +4.29
HOME   #114 Louisiana-Lafayette                  +22.61             0.996
HOME   # 46 South Carolina                       +16.69             0.975
HOME   #  8 Wis.-Milwaukee                        +8.01             0.826
HOME   #  3 Georgia Tech                          +3.29             0.650
HOME   # 53 Texas A&M                            +17.47             0.980
AWAY   # 28 Kentucky                              +5.88             0.754
AWAY   # 88 Iowa State                           +12.98             0.936
AWAY   # 96 Colorado                             +13.62             0.944
HOME   # 56 Nebraska                             +17.63             0.980
AWAY   #132 Villanova                            +15.81             0.968
AWAY   #320 Baylor                               +29.93             1.000
HOME   #  7 Texas                                 +7.51             0.810
HOME   #192 Missouri                             +26.73             0.999
AWAY   # 56 Nebraska                              +9.91             0.877
AWAY   #117 Kansas State                         +14.94             0.960
HOME   # 96 Colorado                             +21.34             0.994
AWAY   #  2 Texas Tech                            -4.72             0.290
HOME   # 88 Iowa State                           +20.70             0.992
AWAY   # 25 Oklahoma                              +4.81             0.713
HOME   #  1 Oklahoma State                        +2.94             0.635
HOME   #117 Kansas State                         +22.66             0.996
AWAY   #192 Missouri                             +19.01             0.987

The projected season record for Kansas is now at 24-3. Wow; that's a whole game improvement since yesterday. Note that all but the road game in Lubbock are projected wins. The next most difficult games are the home games with the Cowboys and the Yellow Jackets. After that come the road games in Norman and Lexington.

Here is Lafayette's season to date:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
NEUT   #204 Louisiana Tech              84  63    +4.87   +16.13
AWAY   #127 LSU                         69  83    -3.18   -10.82
HOME   #162 Rice                        75  61    +6.57    +7.43
AWAY   #224 Georgia State               78  85    +2.35    -9.35
AWAY   # 32 Charlotte                   68  84   -12.21    -3.79
Div2        St. Mary's (Texas)          79  63
AWAY   #  4 Kansas                               -22.61             0.025
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