Sagarin/Dolphin predictions for South Carolina game

I'm changing the name until such time as Massey actually starts makingpredictions for the current season. Have no idea why he hasn't so far into the season, especially now that football regular season is over.

Dolphin is predicting a score of 75 to 60 in favor of Kansas, with the Jayhawks having a 91 percent chance of winning today's game over South Carolina.

Sagarin Pure Points predicts a 20 point margin for Kansas and a 97 percent chance of winning the game. Kansas is playing 5.5 points better than its Pure Points rating, while South Carolina is playing 3.4 points better than its rating, which boosts the margin of victory to 22 points. Kansas has a marginally significant positive trend, while South Carolina has a negative trend but with less significance. Both teams are showing about the same level of inconsistency; South Carolina is right on the national average, while Kansas is 0.4 points more consistent.

Massey's rankings indicate that South Carolina's defense is their strong suit, so perhaps we're looking at a somewhat lower scoring affair.

Like Kansas, South Carolina hasn't been away from home in all their previous games, so the Gamecocks are about to learn something about their team. Their best game came against Appalachian State, while their worst game was the most recent outing against South Florida. Their biggest test to date came against Clemson, which was a 1-point loss, their only loss of the season. Their next biggest test was Temple, who they beat by a comfortable 14 points in a really low scoring contest; recall that Temple gave Wake Forest all they handle before succumbing by 3 points. Maybe the ACC isn't that strong after all? Or maybe South Carolina is better than the rankings indicate. At least Kansas is playing a top-tier opponent (where I'm breaking the 330+ Division I teams into three tiers).


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  3   #113   #  9   #  1   +5.5   10.6   +2.53 +/- 2.52
South Carolina # 49   #248   # 58   # 49   +3.4   11.0   -2.21 +/- 2.72 

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====     ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  6   # 48   #      # 10   # 38     #  2   #  9      6-0
South Carolina # 51   #233   #      #104   # 53     # 27   # 63      5-1

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  5   #  6   #  3   #  2   #  2   #  5   # 11   0.480
South Carolina # 58   # 62   # 43   # 58   # 26   # 36   #135  -0.029

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 19 Vermont                     68  61   +13.90    -6.90
HOME   #168 Saint Joseph's              91  51   +27.55   +12.45
HOME   # 86 Nevada                      85  52   +22.54   +10.46
HOME   # 38 Pacific                     81  70   +17.22    -6.22
HOME   # 27 TCU                         93  74   +15.16    +3.84
HOME   #138 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +25.67   +19.33
HOME   # 49 South Carolina                       +19.81             0.970
HOME   # 43 Wis.-Milwaukee                       +18.35             0.959
HOME   #  7 Georgia Tech                          +7.11             0.750
HOME   # 52 Texas A&M                            +19.93             0.970
AWAY   # 17 Kentucky                              +5.89             0.711
AWAY   # 64 Iowa State                           +13.16             0.894
AWAY   # 94 Colorado                             +15.21             0.925
HOME   # 54 Nebraska                             +20.12             0.972
AWAY   # 81 Villanova                            +14.52             0.915
AWAY   #324 Baylor                               +35.86             1.000
HOME   #  9 Texas                                +11.00             0.851
HOME   #153 Missouri                             +26.61             0.994
AWAY   # 54 Nebraska                             +12.46             0.881
AWAY   #109 Kansas State                         +16.06             0.936
HOME   # 94 Colorado                             +22.87             0.985
AWAY   #  4 Texas Tech                            -2.01             0.425
HOME   # 64 Iowa State                           +20.82             0.976
AWAY   # 24 Oklahoma                              +7.07             0.748
HOME   #  3 Oklahoma State                        +5.20             0.689
HOME   #109 Kansas State                         +23.72             0.988
AWAY   #153 Missouri                             +18.95             0.964

The projected season record for Kansas now has 2.5 losses. Choose which direction you prefer to round it. The 24-3 choice is the same as for the previous projection; the 25-2 choice is yet another improvement, which jumped a whole game over the projection before that. Still projecting a road loss in Lubbock despite the Red Raiders' loss to Ohio State. The GaTech and Kentucky non-conference games early and the Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State conference games late are the only games for which the projected point difference is single digits. Wow!

Here is South Carolina's season to date:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #300 Western Carolina            87  61   +20.74    +5.26
HOME   #142 Winthrop                    62  52    +9.85    +0.15
HOME   # 89 Temple                      60  46    +6.77    +7.23
HOME   #194 Appalachian State           91  57   +12.72   +21.28
HOME   # 39 Clemson                     62  63    +1.26    -2.26
HOME   #207 South Florida               72  70   +13.57   -11.57
AWAY   #  1 Kansas                               -19.81             0.036
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