Sagarin/Dolphin predictions for Georgia Tech game

The Sagarin ratings, complete through games of December 30, give Kansasa 2.7 point edge in the game against Georgia Tech and a 59 percent chance of winning the game. Kansas, however, is playing 6.4 points better than its current Sagarin Pure Points rating, while Georgia Tech is playing only 2.6 points better, which boosts the margin for Kansas to 6.5 points. Both teams have nearly identical levels of inconsistency, slightly worse than the national average. Both teams show negative trends, with Kansas having the larger of the two, though neither is statistically significant. Of course, the Sagarin ratings don't really take into account the fact that Simien is out, so the real question is, how many more points is Simien worth than his replacement? Five points, maybe? In that case, the Jayhawks would still be favored. Galindo may prove to be the most significant scoring threat among the Simien replacements, but will the smaller lineup be able to rebound effectively? The Sagarin ratings give Kansas the edge in overall rating and in Elo Chess, but in Pure Points, Georgia Tech has the edge. So why isn't Georgia Tech predicted to win the game, given that the predictions I'm computing utilize the Pure Points ratings? It's the home court advantage. Indeed, Georgia Tech squeaked past a middle-tier Illinois-Chicago team by a mere one point on the road, and split their two neutral court games, losing to Gonzaga, but beating a decent Air Force team handily in a low-scoring affair. The rest of their games have been at home. Other than Gonzaga, Georgia Tech's schedule has not really tested the team. Then again, Kansas hasn't really been tested either, and has also stayed at home, though its overall schedule is consistently rated as stronger by Sagarin, Massey, Dolphin, and Jerry Palm's RPI calculation.

According to Massey, Georgia Tech's offense is better than its defense. Ditto for Kansas, but in both categories, Kansas is given the edge.

The RPI doesn't regard Georgia Tech very highly, but then again, Kansas is probably overrated in the RPI, which may mean that the RPI isn't very useful at this stage of the season.

However, Dolphin also doesn't regard Georgia Tech very highly. Except for the predictive rating, the difference between the two teams is fairly substantial. Dolphin is predicting a score of 73 to 67 in favor of Kansas, with the Jayhawks having a 70 percent chance of winning the game. That's still a victory even if you feel that Simien is worth an extra five points, though a nail-biter, perhaps riding on the last shot. Hmm, crystal ball shows Russell Robinson nailing a couple of free throws to ice the game with seconds to play...


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  5   #117   #  9   # 11   +6.4   11.7   -1.09 +/- 1.90
Georgia Tech   # 11   #287   # 28   #  4   +2.6   11.5   -0.17 +/- 1.34 

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====     ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  5   # 30   #      # 16   # 28     #  1   #  5      8-0
Georgia Tech   # 19   #158   #      # 32   # 40     # 43   #150      9-1

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  7   #  7   #  4   #  1   #  1   #  2   # 12   0.434
Georgia Tech   # 29   # 29   #  8   # 36   # 38   # 18   # 40   0.262

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 17 Vermont                     68  61    +6.52    +0.48
HOME   #187 Saint Joseph's              91  51   +22.62   +17.38
HOME   #101 Nevada                      85  52   +17.70   +15.30
HOME   # 51 Pacific                     81  70   +13.18    -2.18
HOME   # 86 TCU                         93  74   +16.80    +2.20
HOME   #135 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +19.21   +25.79
HOME   # 48 South Carolina              64  60   +12.86    -8.86
HOME   # 30 Wis.-Milwaukee              73  62    +9.95    +1.05
HOME   #  4 Georgia Tech                          +2.73             0.592
HOME   # 42 Texas A&M                            +12.27             0.852
AWAY   # 12 Kentucky                              -3.13             0.395
AWAY   # 99 Iowa State                            +9.16             0.783
AWAY   #147 Colorado                             +11.55             0.838
HOME   # 75 Nebraska                             +16.03             0.914
AWAY   # 50 Villanova                             +4.68             0.655
AWAY   #310 Baylor                               +24.62             0.982
HOME   # 10 Texas                                 +4.15             0.638
HOME   #127 Missouri                             +18.91             0.946
AWAY   # 75 Nebraska                              +7.59             0.741
AWAY   # 80 Kansas State                          +8.03             0.753
HOME   #147 Colorado                             +19.99             0.956
AWAY   #  6 Texas Tech                            -5.25             0.327
HOME   # 99 Iowa State                           +17.60             0.933
AWAY   # 19 Oklahoma                              -1.44             0.451
HOME   #  3 Oklahoma State                        +0.03             0.501
HOME   # 80 Kansas State                         +16.47             0.920
AWAY   #127 Missouri                             +10.47             0.814

The season record projection has dropped to 22-5, with projected losses to Kentucky, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma, with a virtual tie against Oklahoma State.

Here is Georgia Tech's season to date:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #282 Alabama State               74  37   +31.22    +5.78
AWAY   #139 Illinois-Chicago            60  59   +12.53   -11.53
HOME   #140 Ark.-Little Rock            79  54   +20.99    +4.01
HOME   # 98 Michigan                    99  68   +18.98   +12.02
HOME   #177 Georgia                     87  49   +23.42   +14.58
NEUT   # 53 Air Force                   64  42   +11.07   +10.93
HOME   #251 James Madison               72  47   +28.27    -3.27
NEUT   # 44 Gonzaga                     73  85    +9.75   -21.75
HOME   #304 Charleston Southern         90  48   +33.54    +8.46
HOME   #232 Lafayette                   92  58   +27.14    +6.86
AWAY   # 11 Kansas                                -2.73             0.406
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