Sagarin/Dolphin predictions for Iowa State game

What, another road game? Both Sagarin and Dolphin give Kansas a 9.1-point edge over Iowa State. The probability of Kansas winning based on the Sagarin Pure Points ratings and the Kansas inconsistency factor is 80 percent. Dolphin combines the two teams' inconsistency factors to arrive at a 79 percent probability of Kansas winning. Kansas is underrated by 5.1 points, however, while Iowa State is underrated by only 0.9 points, so the additional 4.2 points would boost the edge for Kansas to 13.3 points. The inconsistency for Kansas is very close to the national average, whereas Iowa State has been very consistent, which makes it harder for them to overcome the 9.1-point deficit and win, so the corresponding probability of winning using their own inconsistency factor is just 11 percent, and even less if you use the 13.3-point margin. Both teams are showing negative trends. The one for Kansas is not statistically significant, but Iowa State's consistency makes their similar negative trend somewhat significant. Dolphin is predicting a final score of 70 to 61.

As a wonderful example of how big an effect the individual inconsistency factors can have on a prediction, look no further than the Kansas State and Texas Tech game. The Red Raiders have one of the highest inconsistency factors I've ever seen at 22.0 points, meaning that they have a much lower chance of achieving the predicted 12.2-point victory over the Wildcats in Manhattan (71 percent). Meanwhile, the Wildcats have an extremely low inconsistency factor of just 6.9 points, meaning that they have a much lower chance of overcoming the predicted 12.2-point deficit to Tech (4 percent). So in other words, the two teams combined have only a 75 percent chance of winning! Yet somebody has to win. The only way to do the calculation properly is to combine the two inconsistency factors, which is something Dolphin does, giving Kansas State a 30 percent chance of winning. Then again, Dolphin puts the margin for Tech at just 6.4 points. Welcome to the wonderful world of statistics!

The separate offense and defense ratings from Massey have disappeared once again, but he is showing individual home advantage values. This year, Iowa State is shown as having the number 7 ranked home advantage. Last season they had the number 2 ranked home advantage. The Cyclones have a remarkable home record over the last two seasons. That intangible works in their favor.

Another factor that makes this game much harder to predict is that we really don't know what sort of team Kansas is going to field. Simien would like to play, but Self would rather not have him play. Moody may play, but will he have full mobility? Langford may play, but will he be at full strength? At least Robinson should be 100 percent. The starting lineup may be quite unusual, and how much we see of the other regulars may depend on how well that starting lineup does. If they can hold their own, expect the M*A*S*H unit to get some rest.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------
Kansas         #  5   # 13   #  3   # 12   +5.1   10.8   -1.01 +/- 1.03
Iowa State     # 87   #197   # 80   #102   +0.9    7.4   -1.17 +/- 0.53 

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----     ----   ----     ----
Kansas         #  3   #  8   #      #      #        #  1   #  1     11-0
Iowa State     # 79   # 87   #      #      #        # 90   #147      8-4

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----
Kansas         #  3   #  3   #  7   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  4   0.853
Iowa State     # 94   # 93   #108   # 96   # 77   # 79   # 95   0.142

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   # 24 Vermont                     68  61    +7.92    -0.92
HOME   #144 Saint Joseph's              91  51   +19.33   +20.67
HOME   # 95 Nevada                      85  52   +16.47   +16.53
HOME   # 60 Pacific                     81  70   +13.74    -2.74
HOME   # 96 TCU                         93  74   +16.52    +2.48
HOME   #174 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +21.15   +23.85
HOME   # 35 South Carolina              64  60   +10.36    -6.36
HOME   # 47 Wis.-Milwaukee              73  62   +11.88    -0.88
HOME   #  8 Georgia Tech                70  68    +1.84    +0.16
HOME   # 41 Texas A&M                   65  60   +11.21    -6.21
AWAY   # 13 Kentucky                    65  59    -3.16    +9.16
AWAY   #102 Iowa State                            +9.12             0.801
AWAY   #118 Colorado                             +10.09             0.825
HOME   # 74 Nebraska                             +14.90             0.916
AWAY   # 40 Villanova                             +3.36             0.622
AWAY   #261 Baylor                               +19.60             0.965
HOME   # 22 Texas                                 +6.67             0.732
HOME   # 98 Missouri                             +16.88             0.941
AWAY   # 74 Nebraska                              +7.08             0.744
AWAY   #139 Kansas State                         +11.13             0.849
HOME   #118 Colorado                             +17.91             0.951
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                            -5.00             0.322
HOME   #102 Iowa State                           +16.94             0.942
AWAY   #  6 Oklahoma                              -6.60             0.270
HOME   #  2 Oklahoma State                        -1.38             0.449
HOME   #139 Kansas State                         +18.95             0.960
AWAY   # 98 Missouri                              +9.06             0.799

Latest season projection is for four cumulative losses. There are three projected losses in individual games, including the road games against Texas Tech, and Oklahoma, but the Pure Points ratings currently favor Oklahoma State in the contest in Allen Field House.

Here is Iowa State's season:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #162 Drake                       73  46    +7.51   +19.49
HOME   #285 Northern Colorado           57  39   +16.26    +1.74
HOME   #106 Bucknell                    62  55    +4.16    +2.84
AWAY   # 29 Northern Iowa               82  99   -12.01    -4.99
HOME   # 65 Virginia                    81  79    +1.36    +0.64
AWAY   # 26 Iowa                        63  70   -12.39    +5.39
HOME   #291 Howard                      92  75   +16.66    +0.34
HOME   #301 Wagner                      62  50   +18.15    -6.15
HOME   #185 San Diego State             69  59    +8.71    +1.29
HOME   #143 Tennessee State             67  61    +6.24    -0.24
AWAY   #136 Xavier-Ohio                 59  72    -2.08   -10.92
AWAY   # 98 Missouri                    59  62    -3.97    +0.97
HOME   # 12 Kansas                                -9.12             0.108
AWAY   #  2 Oklahoma State                       -22.23             0.001
HOME   #118 Colorado                              +4.88             0.746
AWAY   #139 Kansas State                          -1.90             0.398
HOME   #  6 Oklahoma                             -11.81             0.054
HOME   #261 Baylor                               +14.39             0.975
AWAY   # 22 Texas                                -14.18             0.027
AWAY   # 74 Nebraska                              -5.95             0.209
HOME   # 10 Texas Tech                           -10.21             0.083
HOME   #139 Kansas State                          +5.92             0.789
AWAY   # 12 Kansas                               -16.94             0.011
AWAY   # 41 Texas A&M                             -9.64             0.095
HOME   # 74 Nebraska                              +1.87             0.600
HOME   # 98 Missouri                              +3.85             0.700
AWAY   #118 Colorado                              -2.94             0.345
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