Sagarin/Dolphin predictions for Colorado game

What, another road game? Well, if Nebraska can roll into Boulder and come away with a victory, then Kansas ought to be able to, right? Sagarin says so. He gives Kansas a 9.3-point edge and an 81 percent chance of winning the game. The Jayhawks are underrated by 4.9 points, however, while the Buffaloes are overrated by 0.9 points, so in reality, Kansas has more like a 15-point edge. With Simien back and a layer of rust worn off, I'm looking for a double-double and then some, plus a reversal of the recent negative trend that Kansas has been showing. Colorado also has a negative trend. Will Moody play? If so, the Jayhawks will nearly be at full strength (I do not expect either Moody or Simien to be 100 percent); if not, the freshman will have another opportunity to pick up significant minutes and continue their emergence.

Colorado has played five top tier teams, losing by 9 at Michigan, losing by 32 at Utah, and losing by 30 at Oklahoma. They also lost by 7 at home to Nebraska, and managed a mere 6-point home victory against the weakest of those five teams, in-state rival Colorado State. This track record does not bode well for the Buffaloes. Add to that the fact that Kansas has historically had better luck in Boulder than, for example, Ames, and it looks like Colorado is in for a tough contest. Only once has Colorado played by more than 9.3 points above expectation (against Richmond), and never by 15 points.

Dolphin is predicting a final score of 79 to 67, with Kansas having an 83 percent chance of winning the game.

When is the RPI not the RPI? When it's computed by different people. Jerry Palm has Colorado at #24, though admittedly, he updates his free web site only on Monday, so he's not as up-to-date. Doplhin has Colorado at #59. Meanwhile, RealTimeRPI has Colorado at #47.

In other Big XII contests, Nebraska is just a 1 point underdog to Texas in Lincoln; that's a key contest, given that Texas has already suffered one road loss and Nebraska has picked up a road victory. Iowa State has virtually no chance as a 21-point underdog to Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Missouri is a 3-point underdog to Kansas State in Manhattan. Baylor has virtually no chance as a 21-point underdog to Oklahoma, even in Waco. Texas Tech is at 11-point favorite at home against aTm, but might we be in for another surprise? If the Aggies can pull off a road win, they'll open whatever eyes are still closed. It is interesting to note, however, that despite have now played both Kansas and Texas, aTm is still ranked as having played the 327th strongest schedule in Division I. Ouch.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  5   #  4   #  2   # 14   +4.9   10.7   -1.13 +/- 0.87
Colorado       # 93   # 57   # 79   #119   -0.9    9.0   -0.86 +/- 0.65 

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====     ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  1   #  5   #      #      #        #  1   #  1     12-0
Colorado       # 68   # 35   #      #      #        # 24   # 34      8-5

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  3   #  3   #  7   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  5   0.860
Colorado       # 86   # 86   #136   # 76   # 59   # 76   # 86   0.265

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 22 Vermont                     68  61    +6.55    +0.45
HOME   #145 Saint Joseph's              91  51   +19.06   +20.94
HOME   # 87 Nevada                      85  52   +15.37   +17.63
HOME   # 52 Pacific                     81  70   +12.08    -1.08
HOME   #128 TCU                         93  74   +17.76    +1.24
HOME   #172 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +20.25   +24.75
HOME   # 43 South Carolina              64  60   +10.78    -6.78
HOME   # 44 Wis.-Milwaukee              73  62   +10.96    +0.04
HOME   #  8 Georgia Tech                70  68    +1.75    +0.25
HOME   # 40 Texas A&M                   65  60   +10.63    -5.63
AWAY   # 12 Kentucky                    65  59    -4.38   +10.38
AWAY   # 95 Iowa State                  71  66    +8.01    -3.01
AWAY   #119 Colorado                              +9.33             0.808
HOME   # 56 Nebraska                             +12.72             0.882
AWAY   # 38 Villanova                             +2.34             0.586
AWAY   #246 Baylor                               +17.61             0.950
HOME   # 24 Texas                                 +7.77             0.765
HOME   #111 Missouri                             +16.65             0.940
AWAY   # 56 Nebraska                              +4.90             0.676
AWAY   #121 Kansas State                          +9.43             0.810
HOME   #119 Colorado                             +17.15             0.945
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                            -4.11             0.351
HOME   # 95 Iowa State                           +15.83             0.930
AWAY   #  5 Oklahoma                              -7.11             0.254
HOME   #  3 Oklahoma State                        -1.75             0.435
HOME   #121 Kansas State                         +17.25             0.946
AWAY   #111 Missouri                              +8.83             0.795

Latest season projection is for four cumulative losses. There are three projected losses in individual games, including the road games against Texas Tech, and Oklahoma, but the Pure Points ratings currently favor Oklahoma State in the contest in Allen Field House. All three of those games occur in a critical four-game stretch late in the season.

Here is Colorado's season:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #153 College of Charleston       72  57    +6.22    +8.78
AWAY   # 63 Michigan                    60  69    -7.70    -1.30
HOME   #157 Northwestern                66  57    +6.42    +2.58
AWAY   #147 Oregon State                87  98    -1.95    -9.05
AWAY   #109 California                  63  60    -4.47    +7.47
HOME   # 78 Colorado State              89  83    +1.51    +4.49
HOME   #210 UMKC                        79  68    +9.58    +1.42
HOME   #280 Radford                     74  58   +15.38    +0.62
HOME   #181 Gardner-Webb                97  88    +7.36    +1.64
AWAY   # 46 Utah                        48  80    -9.92   -22.08
AWAY   #110 Richmond                    75  69    -4.44   +10.44
AWAY   #  5 Oklahoma                    55  85   -20.35    -9.65
HOME   # 56 Nebraska                    61  68    -0.52    -6.48
HOME   # 14 Kansas                                -9.33             0.150
AWAY   #246 Baylor                                +4.37             0.686
AWAY   # 95 Iowa State                            -5.23             0.280
HOME   #111 Missouri                              +3.41             0.648
HOME   #  3 Oklahoma State                       -14.99             0.048
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                           -17.35             0.027
AWAY   #121 Kansas State                          -3.81             0.336
HOME   # 24 Texas                                 -5.47             0.272
AWAY   # 14 Kansas                               -17.15             0.028
HOME   #239 South Dakota State                   +11.62             0.902
HOME   # 40 Texas A&M                             -2.61             0.386
AWAY   #111 Missouri                              -4.41             0.312
HOME   #121 Kansas State                          +4.01             0.672
AWAY   # 56 Nebraska                              -8.34             0.177
HOME   # 95 Iowa State                            +2.59             0.613
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