Sagarin/Dolphin predictions for Nebraska game

Home, Sweet Home. Sagarin sez that Kansas is favored by 14.7 points and has a 91 percent chance of beating Nebraska. Both teams are underrated, Kansas by 4.3 points and Nebraska by 2.0 points, which boosts the margin to 17.0 points. Nebraska is the less consistent of the two teams, but the difference is not that large. Both teams show a negative trend; however, Nebraska's is not statistically significant, and in the case of Kansas, it basically means that the Jayhawks haven't had a blowout win recently, which could be attributed to the absence of Simien in several of those games.

Dolphin predicts a similar 14.8-point margin and 91 percent chance of winning for Kansas, but in addition predicts a final score of 70 to 55.

There is one common opponent:

KU beat CU by 15 on the road (by 19 neutral court) NU beat CU by 7 on the road (by 11 neutral court) KU over NU by 8 neutral court (by 12 at home)

All three indicators are pretty consistent, pointing to a 12- to 15-point victory for Kansas.

Only two other Big XII games today. Texas Tech is favored by nearly 10 points on the road at Missouri. Although of no consequence as far as the conference crown is concerned, the closest game could be Colorado on the road at Baylor, where the Buffaloes are favored over the Bears by a bit less than 2 points.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  3   #  4   #  2   # 12   +4.3   10.8   -0.91 +/- 0.79
Nebraska       # 77   #232   #102   # 66   +2.0   12.0   -0.47 +/- 0.92 

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====     ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  1   #  3   #      #      #        #  1   #  1     13-0
Nebraska       #104   #115   #      #      #        #140   #142      8-5

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  2   #  2   #  6   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  4   0.877
Nebraska       #109   #105   # 65   #118   # 87   # 81   #109   0.299

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 21 Vermont                     68  61    +7.45    -0.45
HOME   #113 Saint Joseph's              91  51   +17.73   +22.27
HOME   # 80 Nevada                      85  52   +15.81   +17.19
HOME   # 56 Pacific                     81  70   +14.08    -3.08
HOME   #104 TCU                         93  74   +17.27    +1.73
HOME   #168 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +21.01   +23.99
HOME   # 50 South Carolina              64  60   +12.94    -8.94
HOME   # 43 Wis.-Milwaukee              73  62   +11.69    -0.69
HOME   #  9 Georgia Tech                70  68    +3.61    -1.61
HOME   # 42 Texas A&M                   65  60   +11.68    -6.68
AWAY   # 11 Kentucky                    65  59    -4.34   +10.34
AWAY   # 86 Iowa State                  71  66    +8.03    -3.03
AWAY   #135 Colorado                    76  61   +10.51    +4.49
HOME   # 66 Nebraska                             +14.67             0.912
AWAY   # 35 Villanova                             +2.32             0.585
AWAY   #225 Baylor                               +16.41             0.935
HOME   # 15 Texas                                 +5.62             0.698
HOME   #111 Missouri                             +17.48             0.947
AWAY   # 66 Nebraska                              +6.29             0.719
AWAY   #105 Kansas State                          +8.91             0.795
HOME   #135 Colorado                             +18.89             0.960
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                            -4.60             0.335
HOME   # 86 Iowa State                           +16.41             0.935
AWAY   #  4 Oklahoma                              -6.49             0.274
HOME   #  5 Oklahoma State                        +2.12             0.578
HOME   #105 Kansas State                         +17.29             0.945
AWAY   #111 Missouri                              +9.10             0.800

Latest season projection is for four cumulative losses. There are now just two projected losses in individual games, namely the road games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Oklahoma State's recent loss dropped their rating enough to give Kansas a 2.1-point edge in the contest at Allen Field House.

Here is Nebraska's season:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #329 Ark.-Pine Bluff             97  40   +28.76   +28.24
HOME   #290 Texas Southern              78  58   +20.47    -0.47
AWAY   # 37 UAB                         66  80    -7.73    -6.27
HOME   #277 Morgan State                64  34   +18.91   +11.09
HOME   # 47 Minnesota                   48  57    +1.84   -10.84
HOME   # 72 Creighton                   48  50    +4.80    -6.80
HOME   #313 N.C. A&T                    71  49   +22.49    -0.49
AWAY   # 70 Marquette                   62  81    -3.79   -15.21
AWAY   # 98 Tennessee                   62  61    -1.73    +2.73
HOME   #228 Montana State               78  45   +14.71   +18.29
HOME   #105 Kansas State                95  85    +6.81    +3.19
AWAY   #135 Colorado                    68  61    +0.03    +6.97
HOME   # 15 Texas                       53  63    -4.86    -5.14
AWAY   # 12 Kansas                               -14.67             0.111
AWAY   #111 Missouri                              -1.38             0.454
HOME   # 42 Texas A&M                             +1.20             0.540
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                           -15.08             0.105
HOME   #253 Utah Valley State                    +16.62             0.917
HOME   # 12 Kansas                                -6.29             0.300
HOME   # 86 Iowa State                            +5.93             0.689
AWAY   #225 Baylor                                +5.93             0.689
AWAY   #  4 Oklahoma                             -16.97             0.079
HOME   #111 Missouri                              +7.00             0.720
HOME   #  5 Oklahoma State                        -8.36             0.243
AWAY   # 86 Iowa State                            -2.45             0.419
HOME   #135 Colorado                              +8.41             0.758
AWAY   #105 Kansas State                          -1.57             0.448

Nebraska is projected to win just 5.6 more conference games, possibly leaving them with a .500 record, good enough for the top of the bottom half of the conference.

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