Sagarin/Dolphin predictions for Villanova game

Because of the early tip-off, I'm using the Sagarin Pure Points ratingsthrough games of Thursday for the latest projections. Fortunately, there are relatively few games on Friday, so the situation won't change much.

To say that the Villanova game should be interesting is an understatement. Sagarin gives Kansas a scant 2.2-point edge in the contest, which translates into a 58 percent chance of winning using the 11.4-point inconsistency factor for Kansas. The Jayhawks are playing 3.3 points above their Pure Points rating, but Villanova is playing 2.6 points above their rating, so the margin increases to only 3 points. Kansas is showing a negative trend with fair significance, while Villanova is showing a tiny positive trend of no statistical significance.

If you ignore the surprising blowout win over a previously undefeated West Virginia team, Villanova would be showing one of smallest inconsistency factors I've seen, with performances ranging from 6 points above expectation against Middle Tennessee to 10 points below expectation against Georgetown. Unfortunately, with a difference of just 3 points, it wouldn't be uncommon for Villanova to overcome that deficit, though they've done it only three times this season. Meanwhile, Kansas has played 3 or more points below expectation five times this season. It would not be a surprise for the Jayhawks to come up short in this game.

Dolphin predicts an even closer affair, giving Kansas a mere 0.9-point edge and just a 53 percent chance of winning. He's predicting a final score of 67 to 66.

There are no common opponents.

In other Big XII action, there are several interesting matchups. Visiting Nebraska is favored by 0.8 points in Columbia. Oklahoma at home is a 7 point favorite over Tucker-less Texas. Iowa State is usually tough at home, so they have a 7 point edge on visiting Colorado. Texas A&M is favored by 9 points over Kansas State in College Station. The laugher of the day is Baylor at Oklahoma State, where the Cowboys are projected to have a 27 point advantage. Texas Tech is idle until Tuesday.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  4   #  6   #  1   # 12   +3.3   11.4   -1.11 +/- 0.72
Villanova      # 44   #131   # 66   # 33   +2.6    9.2   +0.14 +/- 0.71 

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====     ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  1   #  4   #      #      #        #  1   #  1     14-0
Villanova      # 63   # 79   #      #      #        # 57   # 78      9-4

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  3   #  3   #  9   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  5   0.824
Villanova      # 57   # 55   # 26   # 56   # 43   # 41   # 57   0.501

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 23 Vermont                     68  61    +8.48    -1.48
HOME   #124 Saint Joseph's              91  51   +18.11   +21.89
HOME   # 77 Nevada                      85  52   +15.10   +17.90
HOME   # 74 Pacific                     81  70   +14.86    -3.86
HOME   #113 TCU                         93  74   +17.35    +1.65
HOME   #145 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +19.57   +25.43
HOME   # 52 South Carolina              64  60   +13.04    -9.04
HOME   # 40 Wis.-Milwaukee              73  62   +11.23    -0.23
HOME   # 11 Georgia Tech                70  68    +3.45    -1.45
HOME   # 38 Texas A&M                   65  60   +11.04    -6.04
AWAY   # 10 Kentucky                    65  59    -4.74   +10.74
AWAY   #100 Iowa State                  71  66    +8.09    -3.09
AWAY   #135 Colorado                    76  61   +10.74    +4.26
HOME   # 47 Nebraska                    59  57   +12.37   -10.37
AWAY   # 33 Villanova                             +2.22             0.577
AWAY   #208 Baylor                               +15.80             0.917
HOME   # 15 Texas                                 +4.88             0.666
HOME   #110 Missouri                             +17.21             0.935
AWAY   # 47 Nebraska                              +4.23             0.645
AWAY   # 95 Kansas State                          +7.96             0.758
HOME   #135 Colorado                             +18.88             0.951
AWAY   #  7 Texas Tech                            -5.74             0.307
HOME   #100 Iowa State                           +16.23             0.923
AWAY   #  5 Oklahoma                              -6.39             0.287
HOME   #  4 Oklahoma State                        +1.08             0.538
HOME   # 95 Kansas State                         +16.10             0.921
AWAY   #110 Missouri                              +9.07             0.787

Latest season projection is still for four cumulative losses. There are now just two projected losses in individual games, namely the road games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Oklahoma State's recent loss dropped their rating enough to give Kansas a 1.1-point edge in the contest at Allen Field House.

Here is Villanova's season to date:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #296 UMBC(Md-Balt)               66  41   +24.87    +0.13
NEUT   # 43 Temple                      52  53    +1.19    -2.19
HOME   #211 Monmouth-NJ                 70  50   +17.92    +2.08
AWAY   #213 La Salle                    54  43    +9.84    +1.16
HOME   #217 Fordham                     68  47   +18.19    +2.81
HOME   #160 Albany-NY                   86  72   +14.09    -0.09
HOME   #138 Middle Tennessee            81  62   +12.68    +6.32
HOME   # 81 Pennsylvania                74  64    +9.17    +0.83
HOME   # 72 West Virginia               84  46    +8.48   +29.52
AWAY   # 59 Notre Dame                  72  78    -0.43    -5.57
AWAY   # 61 Providence                  83  78    -0.10    +5.10
HOME   # 65 Georgetown                  64  66    +8.15   -10.15
AWAY   # 31 Boston College              66  67    -4.41    +3.41
HOME   # 12 Kansas                                -2.22             0.405
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