Sagarin/Dolphin predictions for Texas game

It's days like today that remind me of an old, old promotional snippetfrom the defunct Newlywed Game, hosted by Bob Eubanks. The wives were asked the question about the foreign country in which the car was manufactured, the last time their husbands rode in a foreign-made car. First wife said Germany. Second wife said Japan. Third wife said Britain. Fourth wife said United States, but Bob Eubanks reminded her that it had to be a *foreign* country. She paused for a moment, and then responded with "Texas?" Uproarious laughter ensued.

Texas actually has a higher Sagarin Pure Points rating than Kansas, but Kansas is still being given a 3.0-point margin in today's game by virtue of the home court advantage. That would make it a 59 percent probability of winning the game. Kansas is still underrated by 2.0 points, however, while Texas is overrated by 0.1 points, which raises the margin to 5 points. Still too close for comfort. Kansas is a considerably less consistent team than Texas, which makes a 5-point margin even closer in relation to the inconsistency factor. Both teams are showing negative trends, though the Longhorns' is not statistically significant. To lose the game, Kansas would have to perform more than 5 points below expectation, which has happened four times this season. To win the game, Texas would have to perform more than 5 points above expectation, which has happened six times this season. In each case, it's about a third of the games played, which works out to about a 67 percent chance of Kansas winning.

Dolphin is predicting a final score of 76 to 71 in the Jayhawks' favor, and giving Kansas a 67 percent chance of winning.

Texas is a higher scoring team than the average team Kansas has faced this season. On the other hand, both Tucker and Aldridge are now out, though the Longhorns did play above expectation their last two games anyway.

There are three common opponents:

KU beat BU by 20 on road (by 24 neutral court) UT beat BU by 19 at home (by 15 neutral court) KU over UT by 9 neutral court (by 13 at home)

KU beat A&M by 5 at home (by 1 neutral court) UT lost A&M by 11 on road (by 7 neutral court) KU over UT by 8 neutral court (by 12 at home)

KU beat NU by 2 at home (by -2 neutral court) UT beat NU by 10 on road (by 6 neutral court) KU lose UT by 8 neutral court (by 4 at home)

These three average to a 4.3-point margin in favor of Kansas, very similar to the Dolphin and adjusted Sagarin margins.

In other Big XII action, Texas Tech is favored by 13 points at home against Nebraska. Oklahoma is a 12-point favorite over Iowa State on the road in Hilton; can the Hilton magic help to saddle the Sooners with a road loss? Texas A&M is a 17-point favorite over visiting Baylor. Missouri has only a 3-point margin against visiting Kansas State. Colorado and Oklahoma State are idle today, but meeting in Boulder tomorrow, where the Cowboys are favored by 12 points.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  4   #  5   #  3   # 14   +2.0   12.7   -1.25 +/- 0.63
Texas          # 13   # 49   # 18   # 10   -0.1    8.2   -0.20 +/- 0.38 

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====     ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  2   #  4   #      #      #        #  1   #  1     15-1
Texas          # 17   # 31   #      #      #        # 18   # 42     15-4

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  3   #  3   # 11   #  1   #  1   #  2   #  8   0.856
Texas          # 15   # 14   # 14   # 23   # 18   # 14   # 11   0.852

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 23 Vermont                     68  61    +7.94    -0.94
HOME   #115 Saint Joseph's              91  51   +17.67   +22.33
HOME   # 70 Nevada                      85  52   +14.49   +18.51
HOME   # 65 Pacific                     81  70   +13.96    -2.96
HOME   #111 TCU                         93  74   +17.51    +1.49
HOME   #132 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +18.76   +26.24
HOME   # 53 South Carolina              64  60   +12.74    -8.74
HOME   # 32 Wis.-Milwaukee              73  62   +10.39    +0.61
HOME   # 15 Georgia Tech                70  68    +4.69    -2.69
HOME   # 34 Texas A&M                   65  60   +10.87    -5.87
AWAY   #  7 Kentucky                    65  59    -6.20   +12.20
AWAY   #107 Iowa State                  71  66    +8.95    -3.95
AWAY   #124 Colorado                    76  61    +9.82    +5.18
HOME   # 51 Nebraska                    59  57   +12.60   -10.60
AWAY   # 28 Villanova                   62  83    +1.44   -22.44
AWAY   #205 Baylor                      86  66   +15.70    +4.30
HOME   # 10 Texas                                 +2.96             0.592
HOME   #103 Missouri                             +16.73             0.906
AWAY   # 51 Nebraska                              +4.28             0.632
AWAY   # 87 Kansas State                          +7.54             0.724
HOME   #124 Colorado                             +18.14             0.923
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                            -4.68             0.356
HOME   #107 Iowa State                           +17.27             0.913
AWAY   #  4 Oklahoma                              -6.97             0.292
HOME   #  6 Oklahoma State                        +1.83             0.557
HOME   # 87 Kansas State                         +15.86             0.894
AWAY   #103 Missouri                              +8.41             0.746

Latest season projection is back to four cumulative losses. There are just two projected losses in individual games, namely the road games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Oklahoma State's recent losses dropped their rating enough to give Kansas a 1.8-point edge in the contest at Allen Field House.

Here is Texas' season:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #237 Texas State                 95  63   +26.89    +5.11
Div2        Chaminade                   84  62
NEUT   # 26 Iowa                        80  82    +6.27    -8.27
NEUT   # 83 Tennessee                   95  70   +12.74   +12.26
HOME   #250 Coppin State                86  50   +27.84    +8.16
AWAY   #102 Seton Hall                  70  62    +9.60    -1.60
HOME   #185 North Texas                 86  57   +23.25    +5.75
HOME   #233 Texas-Arlington             85  70   +26.60   -11.60
AWAY   # 11 Wake Forest                 88  89    -3.58    +2.58
HOME   #321 Centenary                   97  52   +35.94    +9.06
HOME   #149 Texas-San Antonio          100  82   +21.06    -3.06
HOME   # 68 UNLV                        89  82   +15.54    -8.54
HOME   # 79 Memphis                     74  67   +16.29    -9.29
HOME   #205 Baylor                      79  60   +25.22    -6.22
AWAY   # 34 Texas A&M                   63  74    +3.75   -14.75
AWAY   # 51 Nebraska                    63  53    +5.48    +4.52
HOME   #  6 Oklahoma State              75  61    +3.03   +10.97
AWAY   #  4 Oklahoma                    60  64    -5.77    +1.77
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                  80  73    +4.84    +2.16
AWAY   # 14 Kansas                                -2.96             0.359
HOME   #107 Iowa State                           +18.47             0.988
AWAY   #124 Colorado                             +11.02             0.910
HOME   # 87 Kansas State                         +17.06             0.981
HOME   # 34 Texas A&M                            +12.07             0.929
AWAY   #205 Baylor                               +16.90             0.980
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                            -3.48             0.336
HOME   #103 Missouri                             +17.93             0.986
HOME   #  4 Oklahoma                              +2.55             0.622
AWAY   #  6 Oklahoma State                        -5.29             0.259
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