Sagarin/Dolphin predictions for Missouri game

There's good news and bad news. The bad news is that last year,Kansas did the Saturday/Monday thing three times and came away from it with a 3-3 record. The good news is that last year, all three of those instances were home and away (or vice versa) pairs, with all 3 losses on the road. The current pair is a home and home affair.

The latest Sagarin Pure Points ratings give Kansas a 17.7-point edge in the game with Missouri and a 91 percent chance of winning the game. Kansas is still underrated, now by 2.7 points, while Missouri, having sunk to second-last in the overall Sagarin ratings for the Big XII conference, is actually overrated by 0.3 points, so the edge for the Jayhawks climbs to 21 points. The one thing that Missouri can say is that they are a more consistent team than Kansas, but more consistently mediocre. Missouri is also showing a small but statistically insignificant positive trend, while another game like Saturday's will go a long way toward erasing the negative trend for Kansas, but is anybody expecting a 40-point blowout? Missouri did handle Nebraska in Columbia more comfortably than Kansas did in Lawrence, and Missouri did hang with Illinois, losing by only 6 on a neutral court. On the other hand, the Tigers have lost twice to Kansas State. The KU-MU games tend to be the kind of contest in which you can throw out the statistics. The intensity of the rivalry is one of the intangibles that make the games less predictable.

Kansas is giving up an average of 62.7 points per game, while Missouri is scoring an average of 64.5 points per game, so one might expect Missouri's score in today's game to be right around 63 or 64 points. Yet Dolphin's prediction is for only 57. Missouri allows an average of 65.1 points per game, while Kansas scores an average of 76.2 points per game. Which will prevail, the Kansas offense, or the Missouri defense? Dolphin expects the former, predicting that Kansas will score 75, for an 18 point victory, with a 94 percent chance of winning the game.

There are three common opponents:

KU + 5 ISU on road (+ 9 neutral court) MU + 3 ISU at home (- 1 neutral court) KU vs. MU +10 neutral court (+14 at home)

KU +15 CU on road (+19 neutral court) MU - 2 CU on road (+ 2 neutral court) KU vs. MU +17 neutral court (+21 at home)

KU + 2 NU at home (- 2 neutral court) MU +10 NU at home (+ 6 neutral court) KU vs. MU - 8 neutral court (- 4 at home)

These three average to a 10.3-point margin in favor of Kansas, much less than the Dolphin and adjusted Sagarin margins.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  4   #  4   #  3   # 11   +2.7   13.0   -0.68 +/- 0.64
Missouri       #117   # 33   #122   #110   -0.3    9.5   +0.11 +/- 0.38 

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====     ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  2   #  4   #      #      #        #  1   #  1     16-1
Missouri       #110   # 40   #      #      #        #128   # 18     10-10

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  3   #  3   #  9   #  1   #  1   #  2   #  6   0.909
Missouri       #118   #118   #106   #135   # 62   #137   #118   0.389

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 24 Vermont                     68  61    +8.37    -1.37
HOME   #109 Saint Joseph's              91  51   +17.69   +22.31
HOME   # 87 Nevada                      85  52   +16.15   +16.85
HOME   # 61 Pacific                     81  70   +14.29    -3.29
HOME   #111 TCU                         93  74   +17.73    +1.27
HOME   #121 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +18.45   +26.55
HOME   # 43 South Carolina              64  60   +12.21    -8.21
HOME   # 34 Wis.-Milwaukee              73  62   +11.00    +0.00
HOME   # 16 Georgia Tech                70  68    +5.91    -3.91
HOME   # 41 Texas A&M                   65  60   +12.09    -7.09
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    65  59    -5.94   +11.94
AWAY   # 96 Iowa State                  71  66    +8.83    -3.83
AWAY   #137 Colorado                    76  61   +11.19    +3.81
HOME   # 57 Nebraska                    59  57   +14.05   -12.05
AWAY   # 26 Villanova                   62  83    +0.39   -21.39
AWAY   #198 Baylor                      86  66   +15.58    +4.42
HOME   # 13 Texas                       90  65    +5.08   +19.92
HOME   #110 Missouri                             +17.69             0.913
AWAY   # 57 Nebraska                              +5.71             0.670
AWAY   # 79 Kansas State                          +7.31             0.713
HOME   #137 Colorado                             +19.53             0.934
AWAY   #  9 Texas Tech                            -5.02             0.350
HOME   # 96 Iowa State                           +17.17             0.907
AWAY   #  8 Oklahoma                              -5.07             0.348
HOME   #  4 Oklahoma State                        +1.55             0.547
HOME   # 79 Kansas State                         +15.65             0.886
AWAY   #110 Missouri                              +9.35             0.764

Latest season projection is back to four cumulative losses.  There are just
two projected losses in individual games, namely the road games against
Texas Tech and Oklahoma.  Oklahoma State's recent losses dropped their rating
enough to give Kansas a 1.6-point edge in the contest at Allen Field House.

Here is Missouri's season:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #209 Brown                       68  60   +11.26    -3.26
HOME   #131 Houston                     77  61    +5.50   +10.50
HOME   #150 Davidson                    81  84    +6.90    -9.90
NEUT   # 74 Creighton                   54  78    -2.30   -21.70
NEUT   #131 Houston                     55  57    +1.33    -3.33
HOME   #101 Murray State                59  55    +3.76    +0.24
HOME   #202 Oakland-Mich.               70  61   +10.48    -1.48
HOME   # 19 Arkansas                    52  62    -6.56    -3.44
HOME   #188 Montana                     87  62    +9.39   +15.61
HOME   # 58 Indiana                     56  53    +0.62    +2.38
NEUT   #  5 Illinois                    64  70   -15.78    +9.78
HOME   # 29 Gonzaga                     63  61    -3.31    +5.31
HOME   #147 American U.                 64  51    +6.62    +6.38
HOME   # 96 Iowa State                  62  59    +3.65    -0.65
AWAY   #  4 Oklahoma State              68  78   -20.31   +10.31
AWAY   # 79 Kansas State                54  74    -6.21   -13.79
HOME   #  9 Texas Tech                  62  78   -10.20    -5.80
HOME   # 57 Nebraska                    80  70    +0.53    +9.47
AWAY   #137 Colorado                    62  64    -2.33    +0.33
HOME   # 79 Kansas State                53  64    +2.13   -13.13
AWAY   # 11 Kansas                               -17.69             0.031
AWAY   # 41 Texas A&M                             -9.77             0.152
AWAY   # 64 UNLV                                  -7.37             0.219
HOME   #  8 Oklahoma                             -10.25             0.141
HOME   #198 Baylor                               +10.40             0.863
AWAY   # 57 Nebraska                              -7.81             0.206
HOME   #137 Colorado                              +6.01             0.736
AWAY   # 13 Texas                                -16.78             0.039
AWAY   # 96 Iowa State                            -4.69             0.311
HOME   # 11 Kansas                                -9.35             0.163
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