Sagarin/Dolphin predictions for Kansas State game

It's been noted in the past that in certain games, the intangiblesoutweigh other considerations, rendering the predictions based on statistics rather meaningless. The intensity of the rivalry with Missouri is one example. For today's game, it has to be The Streak. These Kansas seniors will not want to be known at the ones who let The Streak come to an end. Meanwhile, you can bet that Kansas State has been focusing on putting an end to The Streak.

Kansas has never lost in Allen Field House West, er Bramlage Coliseum, but The Streak dates even further back than that. Some say that Kansas State is an improved team. Well, they ended last season ranked #63 in Sagarin Pure Points; now they're #85.

Although now we're getting into the realm of statistics rather than intangibles, one can also look at common opponents, of which there are five, all in the Big XII conference.

KU + 2 NU at home (- 2 neutral court) KU +13 NU on road (+17 neutral court) KSU -10 NU on road (- 6 neutral court) KU vs. KSU +13.5 neutral court (+9.5 on road)

KU +12 MU at home (+ 8 neutral court) KSU +20 MU at home (+16 neutral court) KSU +11 MU on road (+15 neutral court) KU vs. KSU -7.5 neutral court (-11.5 on road)

KU + 5 aTm at home (+ 1 neutral court) KSU -14 aTm on road (-10 neutral court) KU vs. KSU +11 neutral court (+ 7 on road)

KU + 5 ISU on road (+ 9 neutral court) KSU +12 ISU at home (+ 8 neutral court) KU vs. KSU + 1 neutral court (- 3 on road)

KU +15 CU on road (+19 neutral court) KSU -10 CU at home (-14 neutral court) KU vs. KSU +33 neutral court (+29 on road)

Two of these five actually predict a Kansas loss, but the average gives Kansas a 6.2-point advantage. The scatter is quite large at 15.2 points, however. Kansas had a much harder time with Missouri than Kansas State did, but you can probably blame that on the intensity of the rivalry, as noted above. Meanwhile, Kansas State had a much harder time with Colorado than Kansas did.

The latest Sagarin Pure Points ratings give Kansas an 8.6-point edge in today's game and a 76 percent chance of victory. However, Kansas is still underrated by 2.1 points, while Kansas State is overrated by 0.1 points, which boosts the edge to 10.7 points (after rounding). The Wildcats are a more consistent team than the Jayhawks by 3.4 points per game. Kansas State has a positive trend, but it is not statistically significant. The negative trend for Kansas persists, but is only weakly significant; the effects of the Nebraska home game and the Villanova game are still being felt. To lose today, Kansas would have to underperform by more than 10.7 points, which has happened only twice this season, namely the two games just mentioned. That would put the odds for Kansas winning closer to 90 percent. By comparison, to win today, Kansas State would have to perform more than 10.7 points above expectation, which has happened only twice this season, both against Missouri! So this approach gives Kansas State only a 10 percent chance of winning today.

Dolphin is predicting a final score of 71 to 63, with Kansas having a 75 percent chance of winning the game.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  4   #  6   #  2   #  8   +2.1   12.4   -0.57 +/- 0.51
Kansas State   # 82   #153   # 76   # 85   -0.1    9.0   +0.16 +/- 0.42 

               ============ Massey ============     === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS    Pow    Off    Def     Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====     ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  2   #  4   #      #      #        #  1   #  1     18-1
Kansas State   # 72   #111   #      #      #        #132   #142     13-6

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  2   #  2   #  8   #  1   #  1   #  2   #  6   0.930
Kansas State   # 70   # 70   # 75   # 86   # 73   # 63   # 71   0.334

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 27 Vermont                     68  61    +9.87    -2.87
HOME   # 90 Saint Joseph's              91  51   +17.23   +22.77
HOME   # 71 Nevada                      85  52   +15.29   +17.71
HOME   # 76 Pacific                     81  70   +15.96    -4.96
HOME   # 96 TCU                         93  74   +17.83    +1.17
HOME   #117 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +18.81   +26.19
HOME   # 40 South Carolina              64  60   +11.92    -7.92
HOME   # 39 Wis.-Milwaukee              73  62   +11.58    -0.58
HOME   # 15 Georgia Tech                70  68    +6.79    -4.79
HOME   # 32 Texas A&M                   65  60   +11.09    -6.09
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    65  59    -5.34   +11.34
AWAY   # 81 Iowa State                  71  66    +8.20    -3.20
AWAY   #118 Colorado                    76  61   +10.73    +4.27
HOME   # 63 Nebraska                    59  57   +14.91   -12.91
AWAY   # 22 Villanova                   62  83    +0.13   -21.13
AWAY   #204 Baylor                      86  66   +16.76    +3.24
HOME   # 18 Texas                       90  65    +7.80   +17.20
HOME   #107 Missouri                    73  61   +18.33    -6.33
AWAY   # 63 Nebraska                    78  65    +6.81    +6.19
AWAY   # 85 Kansas State                          +8.58             0.756
HOME   #118 Colorado                             +18.83             0.936
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                            -3.96             0.374
HOME   # 81 Iowa State                           +16.30             0.906
AWAY   # 14 Oklahoma                              -1.86             0.440
HOME   #  4 Oklahoma State                        +2.09             0.567
HOME   # 85 Kansas State                         +16.68             0.911
AWAY   #107 Missouri                             +10.23             0.796

Latest season projection is now at three cumulative losses. There are just two more projected losses in individual games, namely the road games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Oklahoma State's recent losses dropped their rating enough to give Kansas a 2.1-point edge in the contest at Allen Field House.

Here is Kansas State's season:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #295 North Dakota State          70  61   +19.68   -10.68
HOME   # 95 Denver                      60  56    +5.12    -1.12
HOME   # 79 Washington State            62  53    +3.54    +5.46
HOME   #325 Ark.-Pine Bluff             76  42   +25.62    +8.38
HOME   #188 Oakland-Mich.               76  69   +11.23    -4.23
NEUT   #133 Wyoming                     64  61    +3.11    -0.11
HOME   #202 Texas-San Antonio           73  69   +12.06    -8.06
HOME   #128 Northern Illinois           81  66    +6.94    +8.06
HOME   #105 Rutgers                     66  76    +5.52   -15.52
HOME   #267 Eastern Illinois            81  63   +16.86    +1.14
Div2        Central Missouri            80  58
AWAY   # 63 Nebraska                    85  95    -5.82    -4.18
HOME   # 10 Texas Tech                  76  79    -8.49    +5.49
HOME   #107 Missouri                    74  54    +5.70   +14.30
AWAY   # 32 Texas A&M                   51  65    -9.64    -4.36
HOME   # 81 Iowa State                  63  51    +3.67    +8.33
AWAY   #107 Missouri                    64  53    -2.40   +13.40
AWAY   #  4 Oklahoma State              57  77   -18.64    -1.36
HOME   #118 Colorado                    60  70    +6.20   -16.20
HOME   #  8 Kansas                                -8.58             0.171
AWAY   # 18 Texas                                -12.93             0.076
AWAY   # 81 Iowa State                            -4.43             0.312
HOME   # 14 Oklahoma                              -6.39             0.240
HOME   #204 Baylor                               +12.23             0.912
AWAY   #118 Colorado                              -1.90             0.417
AWAY   #  8 Kansas                               -16.68             0.033
HOME   # 63 Nebraska                              +2.28             0.600
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