Sagarin/Dolphin/Pomeroy predictions for Colorado game

Having toppled Colorado by 15 in Boulder, the usual 8-point swingassociated with swapping venues implies that Kansas will win by 23 in Lawrence.

There are six common opponents, all in the Big XII conference.

KU + 2 NU at home (- 2 neutral court) KU +13 NU on road (+17 neutral court) CU - 7 NU at home (-11 neutral court) KU vs. KSU +18.5 neutral court (+22.5 at home)

KU +20 BU on road (+24 neutral court) CU - 8 BU on road (- 4 neutral court) KU vs. CU +28 neutral court (+32 at home)

KU + 5 ISU on road (+ 9 neutral court) CU + 2 ISU on road (+ 6 neutral court) KU vs. KSU + 3 neutral court (+ 7 at home)

KU +12 MU at home (+ 8 neutral court) CU + 2 MU at home (- 2 neutral court) KU vs. CU +10 neutral court (+14 at home)

KU + 9 KSU on road (+13 neutral court) CU +10 KSU on road (+14 neutral court) KU vs. CU - 1 neutral court (+ 3 at home)

KU +25 UT at home (+21 neutral court) CU + 9 UT at home (+ 5 neutral court) KU vs. CU +16 neutral court (+20 on road)

In all six cases, the comparison favors Kansas. The average is 16.4 points, with a standard deviation of 10.7 points.

The latest Sagarin Pure Points ratings favor Kansas by 18.6 points, with a 94 percent chance of winning the game. The Jayhawks are underrated by 2.4 points, while the Buffaloes are underrated by 0.6 points, which raises the margin to 20.4 points. Unfortunately for the Buffaloes, they have not played more than 20.4 points above expectation at all this season. On the other hand, their last three games have been their best of the season, leading to a small positive trend on marginal significance. Kansas has played more than 20.4 points below expectation only once this season, namely against Villanova. A repeat performance seems unlikely.

Dolphin also gives Kansas a 94 percent chance of willing the game, predicting a final score of 83 to 64.

Pomeroy predicts a 15 point victory for Kansas but only an 82 percent chance of winning the game. Like Sagarin, his ratings predict scoring margins, but not scores. Numerically, his ratings are a lot lower than Sagarin's, perhaps too low. Taken at face value, they would indicate a score of 68 to 53.

Unusually, the road team is favored in four of six Big XII conference games. Oklahoma is favored by 8 points in Columbia. Nebraska is favored by 6 points in Waco. Oklahoma State is favored by 6 in College Station, but here is a big chance for the Aggies to stake their claim to an NCAA tournament bid. Texas Tech is favored by 7 in Ames, but Hilton magic took out Oklahoma, so can lightning strike twice? The Cyclones have been oustanding in their last four games. Meanwhile, the rapidly fading Texas Longhorns are favored by 12 at home over Kansas State, but their negative trend could wipe out half of that advantage.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  4   #  3   #  2   #  9   +2.4   12.0   -0.52 +/- 0.46
Colorado       # 87   # 13   # 54   #112   +0.6    9.3   +0.33 +/- 0.34 

               == Massey =     = Pomeroy =         === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS     Rate    SoS         Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====     ====   ====         ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  2   #  4     #  7   #  4         #  1   #  1     19-1
Colorado       # 49   # 17     # 88   # 12         # 56   # 23     12-9

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  2   #  2   #  8   #  1   #  1   #  2   #  6   0.943
Colorado       # 62   # 62   # 95   # 55   # 46   # 58   # 62   0.538

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 28 Vermont                     68  61    +9.62    -2.62
HOME   # 94 Saint Joseph's              91  51   +17.13   +22.87
HOME   # 72 Nevada                      85  52   +14.99   +18.01
HOME   # 64 Pacific                     81  70   +14.56    -3.56
HOME   #105 TCU                         93  74   +17.90    +1.10
HOME   #101 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +17.66   +27.34
HOME   # 38 South Carolina              64  60   +11.56    -7.56
HOME   # 34 Wis.-Milwaukee              73  62   +10.94    +0.06
HOME   # 14 Georgia Tech                70  68    +6.21    -4.21
HOME   # 36 Texas A&M                   65  60   +11.01    -6.01
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    65  59    -5.37   +11.37
AWAY   # 78 Iowa State                  71  66    +7.84    -2.84
AWAY   #112 Colorado                    76  61   +10.61    +4.39
HOME   # 69 Nebraska                    59  57   +14.73   -12.73
AWAY   # 22 Villanova                   62  83    -0.23   -20.77
AWAY   #198 Baylor                      86  66   +16.36    +3.64
HOME   # 18 Texas                       90  65    +7.58   +17.42
HOME   # 98 Missouri                    73  61   +17.61    -5.61
AWAY   # 69 Nebraska                    78  65    +6.79    +6.21
AWAY   # 79 Kansas State                74  65    +7.85    +1.15
HOME   #112 Colorado                             +18.55             0.938
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                            -3.11             0.398
HOME   # 78 Iowa State                           +15.78             0.905
AWAY   # 13 Oklahoma                              -1.98             0.435
HOME   #  4 Oklahoma State                        +1.39             0.546
HOME   # 79 Kansas State                         +15.79             0.905
AWAY   # 98 Missouri                              +9.67             0.789

Latest season projection is now at three cumulative losses. There are just two more projected losses in individual games, namely the road games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Oklahoma State's recent losses dropped their rating enough to give Kansas a 1.4-point edge in the contest at Allen Field House.

Here is Colorado's season:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #169 College of Charleston       72  57    +7.13    +7.87
AWAY   # 82 Michigan                    60  69    -6.37    -2.63
HOME   #126 Northwestern                66  57    +4.77    +4.23
AWAY   #137 Oregon State                87  98    -2.61    -8.39
AWAY   # 92 California                  63  60    -5.54    +8.54
HOME   #147 Colorado State              89  83    +5.94    +0.06
HOME   #190 UMKC                        79  68    +9.20    +1.80
HOME   #278 Radford                     74  58   +15.76    +0.24
HOME   #207 Gardner-Webb                97  88   +10.24    -1.24
AWAY   # 24 Utah                        48  80   -13.72   -18.28
AWAY   #140 Richmond                    75  69    -2.45    +8.45
AWAY   # 13 Oklahoma                    55  85   -16.56   -13.44
HOME   # 69 Nebraska                    61  68    +0.15    -7.15
HOME   #  9 Kansas                      61  76   -10.61    -4.39
AWAY   #198 Baylor                      59  67    +1.78    -9.78
AWAY   # 78 Iowa State                  54  52    -6.74    +8.74
HOME   # 98 Missouri                    64  62    +3.03    -1.03
HOME   #  4 Oklahoma State              86 104   -13.19    -4.81
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                  90  97   -17.69   +10.69
AWAY   # 79 Kansas State                70  60    -6.73   +16.73
HOME   # 18 Texas                       88  79    -7.00   +16.00
AWAY   #  9 Kansas                               -18.55             0.023
HOME   #260 South Dakota State                   +13.75             0.930
HOME   # 36 Texas A&M                             -3.57             0.351
AWAY   # 98 Missouri                              -4.91             0.299
HOME   # 79 Kansas State                          +1.21             0.552
AWAY   # 69 Nebraska                              -7.79             0.201
HOME   # 78 Iowa State                            +1.20             0.551
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