Sagarin/Dolphin/Pomeroy predictions for Texas Tech game

Toss up, anyone? The latest Sagarin Pure Points ratings favor Texas Tech by 0.8 points in today's Big Monday contest, with the probability of victory for Kansas being only 47 percent. However, Kansas is still underrated by 2.0 points, but Texas Tech is underrated by 1.6 points, which trims the margin to just 0.4 points, thus predicting overtime.

Dolphin has it even tighter than that, but in this case, Kansas is favored by 0.3 points and has a 51 percent chance of winning. He's predicting a score of 75.2 to 74.9 (the decimals being shown only because the game can't end in a tie, which the rounded numbers would otherwise suggest).

Pomeroy may weight recent games more heavily, because he's favoring Kansas by 1.7 points. His ratings do not predict scores, but are 64.5 and 62.8 for Kansas and Texas Tech, respectively.

What makes this game particularly difficult to predict is Texas Tech's inconsistency factor, which is a whopping 17.5 points. Which Red Raider team will show up, the one that played 38 points above expectation in defeating Asheville, or the one that played 33 points below expectation in losing to Iowa? Kansas has played well since the Villanova loss, whereas Tech has played below expectation in three of its last four games, including the loss in Ames. Overall, both teams are showing negative trends, though Tech's is somehwat more statistically significant than Kansas'.

There are nine common opponents, one non-conference, and the other eight in the Big XII conference.

KU +19 TCU at home (+15 neutral court) TT -15 TCU on road (-11 neutral court) KU vs. TT +26 neutral court (+22 on road)

KU + 9 KSU on road (+13 neutral court) TT + 3 KSU on road (+ 7 neutral court) KU vs. TT + 6 neutral court (+ 2 on road)

KU + 5 aTm at home (+ 1 neutral court) TT +14 aTm at home (+10 neutral court) KU vs. TT - 9 neutral court (-13 on road)

KU +12 MU at home (+ 8 neutral court) TT +16 MU on road (+20 neutral court) KU vs. TT -12 neutral court (-16 at home)

KU +25 UT at home (+21 neutral court) TT - 7 UT on road (- 3 neutral court) KU vs. TT +24 neutral court (+20 on road)

KU + 2 NU at home (- 2 neutral court) KU +13 NU on road (+17 neutral court) TT +16 NU at home (+12 neutral court) KU vs. TT -4.5 neutral court (-8.5 on road)

KU +15 CU on road (+19 neutral court) KU +29 CU at home (+25 neutral court) TT + 7 CU at home (+ 3 neutral court) KU vs. TT +19 neutral court (+15 on road)

KU +20 BU on road (+24 neutral court) TT +16 BU at home (+12 neutral court) KU vs. TT +12 neutral court (+ 8 on road)

KU + 5 ISU on road (+ 9 neutral court) TT -13 ISU on road (- 9 neutral court) KU vs. TT +18 neutral court (+14 at home)

Six of the comparisons favor Kansas, while three favor Texas Tech. The average favors Kansas by 4.8 points, but the standard deviation is 14.4 points. This is the most favorable indicator for Kansas.

As mentioned previously, Kansas did the Saturday-Monday thing three times last season, and lost all three road contests.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  3   #  5   #  2   #  7   +2.0   11.9   -0.37 +/- 0.43
Texas Tech     # 20   # 70   # 33   # 14   +1.6   17.5   -0.83 +/- 0.62 

               == Massey =     = Pomeroy =         === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS     Rate    SoS         Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====     ====   ====         ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  2   #  4     #  6   #  5         #  1   #  1     20-1
Texas Tech     # 32   # 45     # 26   # 63         # 43   # 87     15-6

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  2   #  2   #  7   #  1   #  1   #  2   #  6   0.911
Texas Tech     # 28   # 27   # 18   # 41   # 40   # 25   # 22   0.763

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 27 Vermont                     68  61   +10.69    -3.69
HOME   # 91 Saint Joseph's              91  51   +17.80   +22.20
HOME   # 54 Nevada                      85  52   +14.96   +18.04
HOME   # 51 Pacific                     81  70   +14.55    -3.55
HOME   # 93 TCU                         93  74   +17.91    +1.09
HOME   #101 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +18.32   +26.68
HOME   # 39 South Carolina              64  60   +12.61    -8.61
HOME   # 32 Wis.-Milwaukee              73  62   +11.81    -0.81
HOME   # 12 Georgia Tech                70  68    +7.06    -5.06
HOME   # 33 Texas A&M                   65  60   +11.86    -6.86
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    65  59    -4.67   +10.67
AWAY   # 76 Iowa State                  71  66    +8.22    -3.22
AWAY   #117 Colorado                    76  61   +11.75    +3.25
HOME   # 58 Nebraska                    59  57   +15.08   -13.08
AWAY   # 25 Villanova                   62  83    +1.72   -22.72
AWAY   #199 Baylor                      86  66   +17.25    +2.75
HOME   # 21 Texas                       90  65    +9.45   +15.55
HOME   # 95 Missouri                    73  61   +18.03    -6.03
AWAY   # 58 Nebraska                    78  65    +7.02    +5.98
AWAY   # 70 Kansas State                74  65    +8.05    +0.95
HOME   #117 Colorado                    89  60   +19.81    +9.19
AWAY   # 14 Texas Tech                            -0.81             0.473
HOME   # 76 Iowa State                           +16.28             0.914
AWAY   # 17 Oklahoma                              +0.05             0.502
HOME   #  4 Oklahoma State                        +2.22             0.574
HOME   # 70 Kansas State                         +16.11             0.912
AWAY   # 95 Missouri                              +9.97             0.798

Latest season projection is still for three cumulative losses. There is just one more projected loss in individual games, namely the road game against Texas Tech. Oklahoma's loss to Missouri dropped their rating enough to give Kansas a virtual tie with the Sooners in Norman.

Here is Texas Tech's season:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #251 NC Asheville               119  55   +25.53   +38.47
AWAY   # 93 TCU                         68  83    +6.63   -21.63
HOME   #315 Centenary                   93  41   +32.90   +19.10
HOME   # 96 SMU                        105  67   +14.87   +23.13
AWAY   # 63 UTEP                        72  57    +4.08   +10.92
HOME   #203 Northern Arizona            81  65   +22.35    -6.35
NEUT   # 31 Ohio State                  71  77    +4.34   -10.34
NEUT   # 26 Iowa                        53  83    +3.31   -33.31
HOME   #235 Georgia State               98  56   +24.85   +17.15
HOME   #124 San Francisco               97  53   +16.73   +27.27
HOME   #294 Northern Colorado           88  68   +29.75    -9.75
HOME   #  4 Oklahoma State              66  76    -1.00    -9.00
AWAY   # 70 Kansas State                79  76    +4.83    -1.83
HOME   # 33 Texas A&M                   70  56    +8.64    +5.36
AWAY   # 95 Missouri                    78  62    +6.75    +9.25
AWAY   # 21 Texas                       73  80    -1.83    -5.17
HOME   # 58 Nebraska                    84  68   +11.86    +4.14
HOME   #117 Colorado                    97  90   +16.59    -9.59
AWAY   # 17 Oklahoma                    88  81    -3.17   +10.17
HOME   #199 Baylor                      83  67   +22.09    -6.09
AWAY   # 76 Iowa State                  68  81    +5.00   -18.00
HOME   #  7 Kansas                                +0.81             0.518
AWAY   #  4 Oklahoma State                        -9.06             0.302
HOME   # 21 Texas                                 +6.23             0.639
AWAY   # 33 Texas A&M                             +0.58             0.513
AWAY   #199 Baylor                               +14.03             0.789
HOME   # 17 Oklahoma                              +4.89             0.610

Tech's road to the conference championship has several roadblocks.  Not
only does Tech trail Kansas by three games with six to play, they still
have to travel to Stillwater and College Station, and they have home
contests against Oklahoma and Texas, which are by no means gimmes.  They
are projected to win a cumulative 3 more games, leaving them with a 10-6
conference record.
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