Sagarin/Dolphin/Pomeroy predictions for Iowa State game

Basketball Wars, Episode Two: Attack of the 'Clones Those of you who follow these pre-game summaries of the various computer rating systems out there should know by now that Sagarin really nailed the prediction for the Texas Tech game. Results like those tend to make some people sit up and take notice, but in reality, the computers can't do any better than the laws of statistics, so in reality they just got a little lucky with the last game. But that probably doesn't change the expectation that many readers are anxious to see what the computer ratings predict about Saturday's rematch with Iowa State. The 'Clones have been, after all, on a roll of late. They have performed above expectation by 8 to 23 points in their last six games, averaging 13.7 points.

Fortunately, the Sagarin Pure Points ratings through games of Thursday give Kansas a 15.4 point margin in Saturday's game and a 91 percent probability of winning the game. Both teams are underrated, the Jayhawks by 1.9 points and the Cyclones by 1.4 points, which boosts the margin for Kansas to 15.9 points. Iowa State has played above expectation by more than that just three times this season (two of them very recently) out of 22 games, or 14 percent of the time. Kansas has played below expectation by more than that just once (Villanova) out of 22 games, or 5 percent of the time. Averaging thoes two, you get close to 10 percent, in good agreement with the Sagarin prediction for Iowa State's chances.

Pomeroy gives Kansas just an 11.5 point margin; his ratings are 68.3 and 56.8 for the Jayhawks and Cyclones, respectively.

Dolphin is predicting a final score of 73 to 60, with Kansas having an 88 percent chance of winning.

There are seven common opponents, all in the Big XII conference.

KU +12 MU at home (+ 8 neutral court) ISU - 3 MU on road (+ 1 neutral court) KU vs. ISU + 7 neutral court (+11 at home)

KU +15 CU on road (+19 neutral court) ISU - 2 CU at home (- 6 neutral court) KU vs. ISU +25 neutral court (+29 at home)

KU + 9 KSU on road (+13 neutral court) ISU -12 KSU on road (- 8 neutral court) ISU +15 KSU at home (+11 neutral court) KU vs. ISU +11.5 neutral court (+15.5 at home)

KU +20 BU on road (+24 neutral court) ISU +26 BU at home (+22 neutral court) KU vs. ISU + 2 neutral court (+ 6 at home)

KU +25 UT at home (+21 neutral court) ISU +12 UT on road (+16 neutral court) KU vs. ISU + 5 neutral court (+ 9 at home)

KU + 2 NU at home (- 2 neutral court) KU +13 NU on road (+17 neutral court) ISU + 5 NU on road (+ 9 neutral court) KU vs. ISU -1.5 neutral court (+2.5 at home)

KU - 1 TT on road (+ 3 neutral court) ISU +13 TT at home (+ 9 neutral court) KU vs. ISU - 6 neutral court (- 2 at home)

Six of the comparisons favor Kansas, while one barely favors Iowa State. The average is 10.1 points, the least favorable of the predicted margins for Kansas. The standard deviation is 10.0 points, implying a 16 percent chance that Iowa State could win.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  3   #  2   #  4   #  6   +1.9   11.6   -0.33 +/- 0.39
Iowa State     # 57   # 61   # 54   # 56   +1.4   10.3   +0.76 +/- 0.31 

               == Massey =     = Pomeroy =         === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS     Rate    SoS         Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====     ====   ====         ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  2   #  4     #  6   #  5         #  1   #  1     20-2
Iowa State     # 51   # 49     # 41   # 65         # 71   # 62     14-8

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  3   #  3   #  7   #  1   #  1   #  2   #  6   0.983
Iowa State     # 45   # 43   # 40   # 62   # 55   # 47   # 47   0.612

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 29 Vermont                     68  61   +11.14    -4.14
HOME   # 83 Saint Joseph's              91  51   +17.63   +22.37
HOME   # 54 Nevada                      85  52   +15.24   +17.76
HOME   # 47 Pacific                     81  70   +13.92    -2.92
HOME   # 92 TCU                         93  74   +17.95    +1.05
HOME   # 95 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +18.36   +26.64
HOME   # 37 South Carolina              64  60   +12.47    -8.47
HOME   # 34 Wis.-Milwaukee              73  62   +12.26    -1.26
HOME   # 14 Georgia Tech                70  68    +7.44    -5.44
HOME   # 38 Texas A&M                   65  60   +12.48    -7.48
AWAY   #  8 Kentucky                    65  59    -3.77    +9.77
AWAY   # 56 Iowa State                  71  66    +7.22    -2.22
AWAY   #105 Colorado                    76  61   +11.02    +3.98
HOME   # 69 Nebraska                    59  57   +16.19   -14.19
AWAY   # 20 Villanova                   62  83    +0.22   -21.22
AWAY   #195 Baylor                      86  66   +17.08    +2.92
HOME   # 19 Texas                       90  65    +8.41   +16.59
HOME   # 96 Missouri                    73  61   +18.48    -6.48
AWAY   # 69 Nebraska                    78  65    +7.99    +5.01
AWAY   # 75 Kansas State                74  65    +8.71    +0.29
HOME   #105 Colorado                    89  60   +19.22    +9.78
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                  79  80    -1.33    +0.33
HOME   # 56 Iowa State                           +15.42             0.907
AWAY   # 13 Oklahoma                              -0.93             0.468
HOME   #  3 Oklahoma State                        +2.39             0.581
HOME   # 75 Kansas State                         +16.91             0.927
AWAY   # 96 Missouri                             +10.28             0.812

Despite the loss to Texas Tech, the latest season projection is still for three cumulative losses. The game in Norman is back to being a projected loss, but the home game against Oklahoma State remains in Kansas' favor.

Here is Iowa State's season:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #158 Drake                       73  46   +10.77   +16.23
HOME   #296 Northern Colorado           57  39   +21.77    -3.77
HOME   #139 Bucknell                    62  55    +9.75    -2.75
AWAY   # 39 Northern Iowa               82  99    -6.61   -10.39
HOME   # 85 Virginia                    81  79    +6.34    -4.34
AWAY   # 28 Iowa                        63  70    -8.58    +1.58
HOME   #320 Howard                      92  75   +25.65    -8.65
HOME   #277 Wagner                      62  50   +20.39    -8.39
HOME   #166 San Diego State             69  59   +11.27    -1.27
HOME   #177 Tennessee State             67  61   +12.34    -6.34
AWAY   #100 Xavier-Ohio                 59  72    -0.74   -12.26
AWAY   # 96 Missouri                    59  62    -1.04    -1.96
HOME   #  6 Kansas                      66  71    -7.22    +2.22
AWAY   #  3 Oklahoma State              73  83   -17.13    +7.13
HOME   #105 Colorado                    52  54    +7.90    -9.90
AWAY   # 75 Kansas State                51  63    -2.61    -9.39
HOME   # 13 Oklahoma                    74  66    -4.05   +12.05
HOME   #195 Baylor                      77  51   +13.96   +12.04
AWAY   # 19 Texas                       92  80   -11.11   +23.11
AWAY   # 69 Nebraska                    65  60    -3.33    +8.33
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                  81  68    -4.45   +17.45
HOME   # 75 Kansas State                57  42    +5.59    +9.41
AWAY   #  6 Kansas                               -15.42             0.068
AWAY   # 38 Texas A&M                             -7.04             0.248
HOME   # 69 Nebraska                              +4.87             0.681
HOME   # 96 Missouri                              +7.16             0.756
AWAY   #105 Colorado                              -0.30             0.488
-->