Sagarin/Dolphin/Pomeroy predictions for Oklahoma game

Kansas is going through the meat of its conference schedule right now,but so far hasn't responded very well. Last week's close game in Lubbock was expected to be just that, and this week's contest in Norman is a case of deja vu all over again.

Sagarin is favoring Oklahoma by 0.9 points, but Kansas does have a 47 percent chance of winning the game. Performance doesn't help matters any for the Jayhawks, because Oklahoma is underrated by 2.3 points, while Kansas is underrated by only 1.6 points, so the margin adjusted for performance favors Oklahoma by 1.6 points.

Pomeroy's ratings are 63.37 for Kansas and 64.54 for Oklahoma after adjsutment for the home court advantage, thus predicting a 1 point victory for Oklahoma.

Dolphin is predicting a final score of 69 to 66 in favor of Oklahoma, with Kansas having only a 41.5 percent chance of winning.

There are nine common opponents, all in the Big XII conference. The only conference opponent not represented in the comparison is Oklahoma State.

KU +15 CU on road (+19 neutral court) KU +29 CU at home (+25 neutral court) OU +30 CU at home (+26 neutral court) KU vs. OU - 4 neutral court (- 8 on road)

KU +20 BU on road (+24 neutral court) OU + 4 BU on road (+ 8 neutral court) KU vs. OU +16 neutral court (+12 on road)

KU + 5 aTm at home (+ 1 neutral court) OU +16 aTm on road (+20 neutral court) OU + 4 aTm at home ( 0 neutral court) KU vs. OU - 9 neutral court (-13 on road)

KU +25 UT at home (+21 neutral court) OU + 4 UT at home ( 0 neutral court) KU vs. OU +21 neutral court (+17 on road)

KU + 5 ISU on road (+ 9 neutral court) KU - 2 ISU at home (- 6 neutral court) OU - 8 ISU on road (- 4 neutral court) KU vs. OU +5.5 neutral court (+1.5 on road)

KU - 1 TT on road (+ 3 neutral court) OU - 7 TT at home (-11 neutral court) KU vs. OU +14 neutral court (+10 on road)

KU +12 MU at home (+ 8 neutral court) OU - 3 MU on road (+ 1 neutral court) KU vs. OU + 7 neutral court (+ 3 on road)

KU + 2 NU at home (- 2 neutral court) KU +13 NU on road (+17 neutral court) OU +23 NU at home (+19 neutral court) KU vs. OU -11.5 neutral court (-15.5 on road)

KU + 9 KSU on road (+13 neutral court) OU + 1 KSU on road (+ 5 neutral court) KU vs. OU + 8 neutral court (+ 4 on road)

Six of the comparisons favor Kansas, while three favor Oklahoma. The average favors Kansas by 1.2 points, but the standard deviation is 11.3 points. The most favorable comparison for Kansas is Texas, but Tucker and Aldridge did not play. The least favorable comparison is Nebraska.

One source of uncertainty is whether Moody will play or not. As of Saturday, he was listed as doubtful.

As has been noted previously, Kansas did the Saturday-Monday thing three times last season and lost all three road games, but they also won all three home games. Last week the pattern held with the home victory over Colorado and the loss at Texas Tech. The pattern was broken this past weekend with the home loss to Iowa State. Having just one day off between games should not be too big a factor, especially for a team of NCAA Tournament caliber, given that the Tournament is run with just one day off between pairs of game. Oklahoma is in the same situation, and had to travel from Manhattan on Saturday.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  6   #  4   #  5   #  9   +1.6   12.1   -0.52 +/- 0.37
Oklahoma       # 15   # 33   # 19   # 15   +2.3   10.1   -0.26 +/- 0.28 

               == Massey =     = Pomeroy =         === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS     Rate    SoS         Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====     ====   ====         ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  5   #  5     #  7   #  6         #  1   #  1     20-3
Oklahoma       # 16   # 24     # 20   # 29         # 20   # 32     19-6

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  6   #  6   #  7   #  3   #  1   #  5   #  7   0.947
Oklahoma       # 17   # 17   # 13   # 20   # 19   # 14   # 11   0.927

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 30 Vermont                     68  61   +10.68    -3.68
HOME   # 91 Saint Joseph's              91  51   +17.40   +22.60
HOME   # 53 Nevada                      85  52   +14.05   +18.95
HOME   # 44 Pacific                     81  70   +13.00    -2.00
HOME   #100 TCU                         93  74   +18.00    +1.00
HOME   # 86 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +16.85   +28.15
HOME   # 40 South Carolina              64  60   +12.45    -8.45
HOME   # 33 Wis.-Milwaukee              73  62   +11.19    -0.19
HOME   # 14 Georgia Tech                70  68    +7.28    -5.28
HOME   # 37 Texas A&M                   65  60   +12.01    -7.01
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    65  59    -4.75   +10.75
AWAY   # 50 Iowa State                  71  66    +5.48    -0.48
AWAY   #120 Colorado                    76  61   +11.21    +3.79
HOME   # 84 Nebraska                    59  57   +16.65   -14.65
AWAY   # 17 Villanova                   62  83    -0.45   -20.55
AWAY   #197 Baylor                      86  66   +16.60    +3.40
HOME   # 18 Texas                       90  65    +7.80   +17.20
HOME   # 93 Missouri                    73  61   +17.59    -5.59
AWAY   # 84 Nebraska                    78  65    +8.41    +4.59
AWAY   # 71 Kansas State                74  65    +7.89    +1.11
HOME   #120 Colorado                    89  60   +19.45    +9.55
AWAY   # 16 Texas Tech                  79  80    -0.62    -0.38
HOME   # 50 Iowa State                  61  63   +13.72   -15.72
AWAY   # 15 Oklahoma                              -0.89             0.471
HOME   #  3 Oklahoma State                        +1.44             0.547
HOME   # 71 Kansas State                         +16.13             0.908
AWAY   # 93 Missouri                              +9.35             0.780

The season projection has been bouncing back and forth between three and four cumulative losses for most of the season, and now it's back to four after the unexpected home loss to Iowa State. The probabilities call for one of the next two games being a loss.

Here is Oklahoma's season:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #111 CS Northridge               82  72   +15.81    -5.81
NEUT   #189 High Point                  93  65   +17.22   +10.78
NEUT   # 11 Washington                  91  96    -2.95    -2.05
NEUT   # 42 Minnesota                   67  54    +5.40    +7.60
HOME   #250 Coppin State                67  44   +25.21    -2.21
AWAY   #116 Purdue                      66  48    +7.76   +10.24
HOME   #293 Northern Colorado           80  44   +29.25    +6.75
NEUT   #  2 Duke                        67  78    -6.87    -4.13
HOME   # 45 SMS(SW Missouri State)      61  53    +9.80    -1.80
NEUT   #176 Tulsa                       70  64   +15.87    -9.87
HOME   #306 Florida A&M                104  45   +31.12   +27.88
HOME   #276 Texas-Pan American          94  54   +27.40   +12.60
HOME   #120 Colorado                    85  55   +16.22   +13.78
HOME   # 12 Connecticut                 77  65    +3.66    +8.34
AWAY   #197 Baylor                      65  61   +13.37    -9.37
AWAY   # 37 Texas A&M                   70  54    +0.54   +15.46
HOME   # 18 Texas                       64  60    +4.57    -0.57
HOME   #  3 Oklahoma State              67  57    -1.79   +11.79
AWAY   # 50 Iowa State                  66  74    +2.25   -10.25
HOME   # 37 Texas A&M                   69  65    +8.78    -4.78
HOME   # 16 Texas Tech                  81  88    +4.39   -11.39
AWAY   #  3 Oklahoma State              67  79   -10.03    -1.97
AWAY   # 93 Missouri                    65  68    +6.12    -9.12
HOME   # 84 Nebraska                    83  60   +13.42    +9.58
AWAY   # 71 Kansas State                69  68    +4.66    -3.66
HOME   #  9 Kansas                                +0.89             0.535
HOME   #197 Baylor                               +21.61             0.984
AWAY   # 18 Texas                                 -3.67             0.359
AWAY   # 16 Texas Tech                            -3.85             0.352

Oklahoma has only one gimme left, but the probabilities call for two
more losses.  They finish with two tough road games.
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