Sagarin/Dolphin/Pomeroy predictions for Oklahoma State game

This is it! The game that many believed would decide the Big XIIconference championship could very well do just that, but it has turned into something more. For both contestants, it means either ending or continuing a losing streak. A #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament may also be hanging in the balance. It's also the second-last game that the Kansas seniors will be playing in Allen Field House. And it's expected to be a close one. Which team will handle the pressure better?

The latest Sagarin Pure Points ratings have Oklahoma State at #3 and Kansas at #9, but there's less than 3 points separating those rankings, meaning that the 4.1-point home court advantage is enough to favor Kansas by a scant 1.2 points, with a 54 percent probability of winning. The Jayhawks are underrated by 1.8 points, while the Cowboys are underrated by 0.9 points, which boosts the margin in favor of Kansas to 2 points. Both teams have comparable inconsistency factors, though if you ignore the Washington State game, the Cowboys would be somewhat more consistent a team, and both teams are showing negative trends, though the one for Kansas is slightly more statistically significant. Sagarin's Elo Chess rankings have Kansas at #8 and Oklahoma State at #10. If you use those ratings instead, Kansas would be favored by 5 points.

Massey has Kansas ranked ahead of Oklahoma State, though how his numbers translate into a point spread is unknown. Nevertheless, the home advantage guarantees that Massey would favor Kansas in the contest.

Pomeroy has Oklahoma State at #6 and Kansas at #7, but the home court advantage gives Kansas a 2.2 point edge. The ratings corrected for that advantage are 66.79 for Kansas and 64.56 for Oklahoma State.

Dolphin is predicting a final score of 71 to 69 in favor of Kansas, with the Jayhawks having a 58 percent chance of winning the game.

Kansas is still #1 in the RPI and also has the #1 strength of schedule. Sagarin also has Kansas with the #1 strength of schedule, and Sunday's game with Oklahoma State will ensure that the #1 strength of schedule ranking continues for a few more days.

Both teams have identical conference and overall records, though one of Oklahoma State's victories came over an NAIA school (who actually scored more on the Cowboys than Washington State did). Kansas has been winning by an average of 11.7 points, while Oklahoma State has been winning by an average of 16.6 points, though if you ignore the drubbings of Washington State and Northwest Oklahoma State, it's more like 13 points. Kansas has been holding its opponents to an average score of 63.8 points, while Oklahoma State has been holding its opponents to an average score of 62.5 points, though it's more like 65 points if you ignore those same two games.

There are ten common opponents, consisting of the other ten members of the Big XII conference.

KU - 1 TT on road (+ 3 neutral court) OSU +10 TT on road (+14 neutral court) OSU +29 TT at home (+25 neutral court) KU vs. OSU -16.5 neutral court (-12.5 at home)

KU +12 MU at home (+ 8 neutral court) OSU +10 MU at home (+ 6 neutral court) KU vs. OSU + 2 neutral court (+ 6 at home)

KU + 5 ISU on road (+ 9 neutral court) KU - 2 ISU at home (- 6 neutral court) OSU +10 ISU at home (+ 6 neutral court) KU vs. OU -4.5 neutral court (-0.5 at home)

KU +25 UT at home (+21 neutral court) OSU -14 UT on road (-10 neutral court) KU vs. OSU +31 neutral court (+35 at home)

KU +20 BU on road (+24 neutral court) OSU +29 BU at home (+25 neutral court) OSU +18 BU on road (+22 neutral court) KU vs. OSU +0.5 neutral court (+4.5 at home)

KU - 8 OU on road (- 4 neutral court) OSU -10 OU on road (- 6 neutral court) OSU +12 OU at home (+ 8 neutral court) KU vs. OSU - 5 neutral court (- 1 at home)

KU +15 CU on road (+19 neutral court) KU +29 CU at home (+25 neutral court) OSU +18 CU on road (+22 neutral court) KU vs. OSU 0 neutral court (+ 4 at home)

KU + 9 KSU on road (+13 neutral court) OSU +20 KSU at home (+16 neutral court) KU vs. OSU - 3 neutral court (+ 1 at home)

KU + 5 aTm at home (+ 1 neutral court) OSU + 7 aTm on road (+11 neutral court) KU vs. OSU -10 neutral court (- 6 at home)

KU + 2 NU at home (- 2 neutral court) KU +13 NU on road (+17 neutral court) OSU - 7 NU on road (- 3 neutral court) KU vs. OU +10.5 neutral court (+14.5 at home)

These average to 4.5 points in favor of Kansas, but with a 12.9 point standard deviation. That is, Kansas would still have the edge, even without the home court advantage. Now, some of you are probably looking at that 35 point advantage based on the Texas common opponent and thinking that Kansas benefited from Tucker being ineligible and Aldridge being injured, whereas Oklahoma State did not. Well, if you remove the Texas comparison from the computation, Kansas still has a 1.1 point advantage, and the standard deviation drops to 7.6 points.


               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  8   #  1   #  8   #  9   +1.8   11.9   -0.53 +/- 0.34
Oklahoma State #  6   # 10   # 10   #  3   +0.9   11.2   -0.36 +/- 0.35 

               == Massey =     = Pomeroy =         === RPI ===     ====
               Rate    SoS     Rate    SoS         Rate    SOS     Rec.
               ====   ====     ====   ====         ====   ====     ====
Kansas         #  6   #  2     #  7   #  2         #  1   #  1     20-4
Oklahoma State #  9   # 15     #  6   # 35         #  3   #  4     20-4

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  7   #  7   #  8   #  3   #  1   #  6   #  8   0.994
Oklahoma State #  8   #  8   #  4   #  9   #  7   #  8   #  6   0.974

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 35 Vermont                     68  61   +11.17    -4.17
HOME   # 90 Saint Joseph's              91  51   +16.86   +23.14
HOME   # 50 Nevada                      85  52   +13.34   +19.66
HOME   # 39 Pacific                     81  70   +11.60    -0.60
HOME   #105 TCU                         93  74   +18.07    +0.93
HOME   # 89 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +16.72   +28.28
HOME   # 46 South Carolina              64  60   +12.73    -8.73
HOME   # 33 Wis.-Milwaukee              73  62   +10.77    +0.23
HOME   # 14 Georgia Tech                70  68    +6.92    -4.92
HOME   # 30 Texas A&M                   65  60   +10.13    -5.13
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    65  59    -5.30   +11.30
AWAY   # 58 Iowa State                  71  66    +5.89    -0.89
AWAY   #122 Colorado                    76  61   +10.91    +4.09
HOME   # 66 Nebraska                    59  57   +14.69   -12.69
AWAY   # 17 Villanova                   62  83    -0.63   -20.37
AWAY   #203 Baylor                      86  66   +16.77    +3.23
HOME   # 18 Texas                       90  65    +7.62   +17.38
HOME   # 86 Missouri                    73  61   +16.52    -4.52
AWAY   # 66 Nebraska                    78  65    +6.49    +6.51
AWAY   # 78 Kansas State                74  65    +7.76    +1.24
HOME   #122 Colorado                    89  60   +19.11    +9.89
AWAY   # 20 Texas Tech                  79  80    -0.37    -0.63
HOME   # 58 Iowa State                  61  63   +14.09   -16.09
AWAY   # 12 Oklahoma                    63  71    -3.22    -4.78
HOME   #  3 Oklahoma State                        +1.17             0.539
HOME   # 78 Kansas State                         +15.96             0.910
AWAY   # 86 Missouri                              +8.32             0.757

Here is Oklahoma State's season:


SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #178 NW Louisiana                91  53   +25.83   +12.17
HOME   #141 Ark.-Little Rock            90  65   +23.25    +1.75
HOME   #160 Sam Houston State           73  57   +24.08    -8.08
AWAY   #103 SMU                         76  57   +12.67    +6.33
HOME   # 95 Washington State            81  29   +20.09   +31.91
NEUT   # 23 Syracuse                    74  60    +8.04    +5.96
HOME   # 45 UAB                         86  73   +15.64    -2.64
AWAY   # 79 UNLV                        79  67   +10.71    +1.29
NAIA        NW Oklahoma State           92  35
NEUT   # 38 Gonzaga                     75  78   +10.40   -13.40
AWAY   #173 Texas A&M-CorpusChristi     86  61   +17.15    +7.85
AWAY   # 20 Texas Tech                  76  66    +2.56    +7.44
HOME   # 86 Missouri                    78  68   +19.45    -9.45
HOME   # 58 Iowa State                  83  73   +17.02    -7.02
AWAY   # 18 Texas                       61  75    +2.35   -16.35
HOME   #203 Baylor                      82  53   +27.90    +1.10
AWAY   # 12 Oklahoma                    57  67    -0.29    -9.71
AWAY   #122 Colorado                   104  86   +13.84    +4.16
HOME   # 78 Kansas State                77  57   +18.89    +1.11
AWAY   #203 Baylor                      81  63   +19.70    -1.70
HOME   # 12 Oklahoma                    79  67    +7.91    +4.09
AWAY   # 30 Texas A&M                   66  59    +4.86    +2.14
HOME   # 20 Texas Tech                  85  56   +10.76   +18.24
AWAY   # 66 Nebraska                    67  74    +9.42   -16.42
AWAY   #  9 Kansas                                -1.17             0.458
HOME   # 30 Texas A&M                            +13.06             0.879
HOME   # 18 Texas                                +10.55             0.828
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