Sagarin/Dolphin/Pomeroy predictions for Kansas State game

Happy 50th, Allen Fieldhouse! You have a 92 percent chance of hosting yet another home team victory tonight. The latest Sagarin Pure Points ratings give Kansas a 16.1 point edge in this evening's birthday bash. Kansas is still underrated, this time by 1.6 points, while Kansas State is overrated by 0.3 points, which raises the margin to 18 points for the Jayhawks. Kansas State is the most consistent team in the Big XII, but consistency doesn't win games. The Wildcats are showing a positive trend, but it is not statistically significant. The negative trend for Kansas remains weakly significant, only because there hasn't been a blowout win since the Texas game to counterbalance the early season blowout wins over Saint Joseph's, Nevada, and Lafayette.

Massey finally agrees with Sagarin, Herman, and the RPI in that Kansas has the #1 strength of schedule. Meanwhile, there must be something wrong with Pomeroy's ratings. After playing Oklahoma State, the strength of schedule rating he has for Kansas FELL from #2 to #3. Still he favors Kansas by 15.8 points in today's contest.

Dolphin is predicting a final score of 75 to 60 in favor of Kansas, with the Jayhawks having a 91 percent chance of winning the game.

Having won by 9 points in Manhattan, the swap in venues would normally lead to an 8-point swing, thus favoring the Jayhawks by 17 points in Lawrence. There are ten common opponents, consisting of the other ten members of the Big XII conference.

KU + 2 NU at home (- 2 neutral court) KU +13 NU on road (+17 neutral court) KSU -10 NU on road (- 6 neutral court) KU vs. KSU +13.5 neutral court (+17.5 at home)

KU - 1 TT on road (+ 3 neutral court) KSU - 3 TT at home (- 7 neutral court) KU vs. KSU +10 neutral court (+14 at home)

KU +12 MU at home (+ 8 neutral court) KSU +20 MU at home (+16 neutral court) KSU +11 MU on road (+15 neutral court) KU vs. KSU -7.5 neutral court (-3.5 at home)

KU + 5 aTm at home (+ 1 neutral court) KSU -14 aTm on road (-10 neutral court) KU vs. KSU +11 neutral court (+15 at home)

KU + 5 ISU on road (+ 9 neutral court) KU - 2 ISU at home (- 6 neutral court) KSU +12 ISU at home (+ 8 neutral court) KSU -15 ISU on road (-11 neutral court) KU vs. KSU + 3 neutral court (+ 7 at home)

KU + 2 OSU at home (- 2 neutral court) KSU -20 OSU on road (-16 neutral court) KU vs. KSU +14 neutral court (+18 at home)

KU +15 CU on road (+19 neutral court) KU +29 CU at home (+25 neutral court) KSU -10 CU at home (-14 neutral court) KSU + 2 CU on road (+ 6 neutral court) KU vs. KSU +26 neutral court (+30 at home)

KU +25 UT at home (+21 neutral court) KSU - 3 UT on road (+ 1 neutral court) KU vs. KSU +20 neutral court (+24 at home)

KU - 8 OU on road (- 4 neutral court) KSU - 1 OU at home (- 5 neutral court) KU vs. KSU + 1 neutral court (+ 5 at home)

KU +20 BU on road (+24 neutral court) KSU +11 BU at home (+ 7 neutral court) KU vs. KSU +17 neutral court (+21 at home)

Kansas comes out ahead in nine of the ten comparisons, by an average of 14.8 points, with a standard deviation of 9.8 points. The only comparison where the Kitties come out ahead is with Missouri, which is understandable, because the intensity of the rivalry between Kansas and Missouri tends to make those games closer than the teams' relative ratings would otherwise indicate.

So, all the indicators are pretty consistent, favoring Kansas by anywhere from 15 to 18 points. The intangibles include the fact that it is Senior Night for Kansas, and it is regarded at the 50th Anniversary for Allen Fieldhouse. Those represent extra incentive for the Jayhawks. Meanwhile, Kansas State will be looking to end a long losing streak to the Jayhawks, while spoiling Senior Night and the birthday bash. Those represent extra incentive for the Wildcats.

               ======================== Sagarin =======================
               Rate    SoS    Elo     PP   Perf   Inc.       Trend
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ==============
Kansas         #  7   #  1   #  8   #  8   +1.6   11.7   -0.48 +/- 0.32
Kansas State   # 79   # 86   # 79   # 81   -0.3    8.7   +0.17 +/- 0.26 

               == Massey =   = Pomeroy =   == Herman =   === RPI ===   ====
               Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate    SOS   Rec.
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====
Kansas         #  5   #  1   # 10   #  3   #  2   #  1   #  1   #  1   21-4
Kansas State   # 76   # 75   # 89   #121   # 78   # 52   #127   #106   15-10

               ======================= Dolphin ======================
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched
               ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   ====   =====
Kansas         #  6   #  6   #  8   #  3   #  1   #  4   #  6   1.035
Kansas State   # 78   # 79   # 76   # 95   # 85   # 80   # 78   0.503

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   # 41 Vermont                     68  61   +12.00    -5.00
HOME   # 79 Saint Joseph's              91  51   +16.06   +23.94
HOME   # 49 Nevada                      85  52   +13.02   +19.98
HOME   # 38 Pacific                     81  70   +11.73    -0.73
HOME   #105 TCU                         93  74   +18.07    +0.93
HOME   # 88 Louisiana-Lafayette         96  51   +16.83   +28.17
HOME   # 44 South Carolina              64  60   +12.61    -8.61
HOME   # 34 Wis.-Milwaukee              73  62   +11.04    -0.04
HOME   # 14 Georgia Tech                70  68    +6.89    -4.89
HOME   # 30 Texas A&M                   65  60   +10.26    -5.26
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    65  59    -4.72   +10.72
AWAY   # 70 Iowa State                  71  66    +6.84    -1.84
AWAY   #127 Colorado                    76  61   +11.47    +3.53
HOME   # 55 Nebraska                    59  57   +13.91   -11.91
AWAY   # 15 Villanova                   62  83    -0.93   -20.07
AWAY   #205 Baylor                      86  66   +17.06    +2.94
HOME   # 21 Texas                       90  65    +8.34   +16.66
HOME   # 86 Missouri                    73  61   +16.56    -4.56
AWAY   # 55 Nebraska                    78  65    +5.77    +7.23
AWAY   # 81 Kansas State                74  65    +7.97    +1.03
HOME   #127 Colorado                    89  60   +19.61    +9.39
AWAY   # 19 Texas Tech                  79  80    +0.16    -1.16
HOME   # 70 Iowa State                  61  63   +14.98   -16.98
AWAY   # 10 Oklahoma                    63  71    -4.02    -3.98
HOME   #  3 Oklahoma State              81  79    +1.57    +0.43
HOME   # 81 Kansas State                         +16.11             0.916
AWAY   # 86 Missouri                              +8.42             0.764

Here is Kansas State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
====   =============================   =======   ======    =====    =====
HOME   #299 North Dakota State          70  61   +20.86   -11.86
HOME   # 95 Denver                      60  56    +5.11    -1.11
HOME   # 94 Washington State            62  53    +5.11    +3.89
HOME   #327 Ark.-Pine Bluff             76  42   +27.90    +6.10
HOME   #183 Oakland-Mich.               76  69   +11.64    -4.64
NEUT   #124 Wyoming                     64  61    +3.28    -0.28
HOME   #188 Texas-San Antonio           73  69   +12.22    -8.22
HOME   #129 Northern Illinois           81  66    +7.64    +7.36
HOME   #126 Rutgers                     66  76    +7.39   -17.39
HOME   #260 Eastern Illinois            81  63   +16.93    +1.07
Div2        Central Missouri            80  58
AWAY   # 55 Nebraska                    85  95    -6.27    -3.73
HOME   # 19 Texas Tech                  76  79    -3.74    +0.74
HOME   # 86 Missouri                    74  54    +4.52   +15.48
AWAY   # 30 Texas A&M                   51  65    -9.92    -4.08
HOME   # 70 Iowa State                  63  51    +2.94    +9.06
AWAY   # 86 Missouri                    64  53    -3.62   +14.62
AWAY   #  3 Oklahoma State              57  77   -18.61    -1.39
HOME   #127 Colorado                    60  70    +7.57   -17.57
HOME   #  8 Kansas                      65  74    -7.97    -1.03
AWAY   # 21 Texas                       72  75   -11.84    +8.84
AWAY   # 70 Iowa State                  42  57    -5.20    -9.80
HOME   # 10 Oklahoma                    68  69    -7.92    +6.92
HOME   #205 Baylor                      80  69   +13.16    -2.16
AWAY   #127 Colorado                    84  82    -0.57    +2.57
AWAY   #  8 Kansas                               -16.11             0.032
HOME   # 55 Nebraska                              +1.87             0.585
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