Sagarin/Dolphin/Pomeroy predictions for Missouri game

Getting close to game time, so a quick summary of the various predictions. The Sagarin Pure Points ratings through games of Saturday gives Kansas a 9.1 point margin in the road game in Columbia, with a 78 percent chance of winning. Kansas is underrated by 1.4 points, while Missouri is overrated by 0.7 points. That would boost the margin in favor of Kansas to 11.2 points. Missouri is the more consistent team; their worst performance came against Creighton, where they played 20 points below expectation, and their best performance came against Montana, where they played 14 points above expectation. Only twice this season has their performance been above expectation by enough to overcome an 11.2 point deficit. Missouri has not shown any significant trend over the season; they've just been consistently mediocre.

Pomeroy's ratings adjusted for home court advantage are 62.68 for Kansas and 55.21 for Missouri, implying a 7.5 point victory for Kansas. Strength of schedule slipped from #3 to #5 after playing Kansas State.

Dolphin is predicting a final score of 69 to 60 in favor of Kansas, with the Jayhawks having a 79 percent chance of winning the game.

All ten conference opponents are obviously in common, this being the last game of the regular season. Plus there is the head-to-head in Lawrence:

KU + 5 ISU on road (+ 9 neutral court) KU - 2 ISU at home (- 6 neutral court) MU + 3 ISU at home (- 1 neutral court) MU -18 ISU on road (-14 neutral court) KU vs. MU + 9 neutral court (+ 5 on road)

KU + 2 OSU at home (- 2 neutral court) MU -10 OSU on road (- 6 neutral court) KU vs. MU + 4 neutral court ( 0 on road)

KU + 9 KSU on road (+13 neutral court) KU + 7 KSU at home (+ 3 neutral court) MU -20 KSU on road (-16 neutral court) MU -11 KSU at home (-15 neutral court) KU vs. MU +23.5 neutral court (+19.5 on road)

KU - 1 TT on road (+ 3 neutral court) MU -16 TT at home (-20 neutral court) KU vs. MU +23 neutral court (+19 on road)

KU + 2 NU at home (- 2 neutral court) KU +13 NU on road (+17 neutral court) MU +10 NU at home (+ 6 neutral court) MU + 3 NU on road (+ 7 neutral court) KU vs. MU + 1 neutral court (- 3 on road)

KU +15 CU on road (+19 neutral court) KU +29 CU at home (+25 neutral court) MU - 2 CU on road (+ 2 neutral court) MU + 9 CU at home (+ 5 neutral court) KU vs. MU +18.5 neutral court (+14.5 on road)

KU + 5 aTm at home (+ 1 neutral court) MU -28 aTm on road (-24 neutral court) KU vs. MU +25 neutral court (+21 on road)

KU - 8 OU on road (- 4 neutral court) MU + 3 OU at home (- 1 neutral court) KU vs. MU - 3 neutral court (- 7 on road)

KU +20 BU on road (+24 neutral court) MU + 7 BU at home (+ 3 neutral court) KU vs. MU +21 neutral court (+17 on road)

KU +25 UT at home (+21 neutral court) MU -12 UT on road (- 8 neutral court) KU vs. MU +29 neutral court (+25 on road)

KU +12 MU at home (+ 8 neutral court) MU -12 KU on orad (- 8 neutral court) KU vs. MU + 8 neutral court (+ 4 on road)

These average to a 10.45 point margin for Kansas, with standard deviation of 10.97 points. Obviously, the most favorable comparison involves Oklahoma, who Missouri beat at home (all Big XII south opponents have the opposite home floor in these comparisons). ======================== Sagarin ======================= Rate SoS Elo PP Perf Inc. Trend ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ============== Kansas # 7 # 2 # 7 # 10 +1.4 11.6 -0.50 +/- 0.29 Missouri # 94 # 15 # 87 # 97 -0.7 9.4 +0.08 +/- 0.21

== Massey = = Pomeroy = == Herman = === RPI === ==== Rate SoS Rate SoS Rate SoS Rate SOS Rec. ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Kansas # 4 # 1 # 10 # 5 # 2 # 1 # 1 # 1 22-4 Missouri # 77 # 22 #112 # 16 # 85 # 9 # 92 # 6 14-15

======================= Dolphin ====================== Std. Med. Pre. IRPI RPI Pair Poll Sched ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ===== Kansas # 6 # 6 # 9 # 2 # 1 # 4 # 6 1.013 Missouri # 92 # 92 # 99 # 99 # 63 #130 # 92 0.584

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB. ==== ============================= ======= ====== ===== ===== HOME # 43 Vermont 68 61 +12.33 -5.33 HOME # 75 Saint Joseph's 91 51 +15.53 +24.47 HOME # 45 Nevada 85 52 +12.58 +20.42 HOME # 39 Pacific 81 70 +11.69 -0.69 HOME #105 TCU 93 74 +18.11 +0.89 HOME # 94 Louisiana-Lafayette 96 51 +16.96 +28.04 HOME # 48 South Carolina 64 60 +12.99 -8.99 HOME # 32 Wis.-Milwaukee 73 62 +10.61 +0.39 HOME # 15 Georgia Tech 70 68 +6.91 -4.91 HOME # 28 Texas A&M 65 60 +9.92 -4.92 AWAY # 8 Kentucky 65 59 -4.39 +10.39 AWAY # 55 Iowa State 71 66 +5.38 -0.38 AWAY #132 Colorado 76 61 +11.74 +3.26 HOME # 60 Nebraska 59 57 +14.20 -12.20 AWAY # 16 Villanova 62 83 -1.19 -19.81 AWAY #196 Baylor 86 66 +16.50 +3.50 HOME # 18 Texas 90 65 +7.98 +17.02 HOME # 97 Missouri 73 61 +17.24 -5.24 AWAY # 60 Nebraska 78 65 +6.08 +6.92 AWAY # 74 Kansas State 74 65 +7.32 +1.68 HOME #132 Colorado 89 60 +19.86 +9.14 AWAY # 21 Texas Tech 79 80 +0.82 -1.82 HOME # 55 Iowa State 61 63 +13.50 -15.50 AWAY # 6 Oklahoma 63 71 -5.08 -2.92 HOME # 4 Oklahoma State 81 79 +1.46 +0.54 HOME # 74 Kansas State 72 65 +15.44 -8.44 AWAY # 97 Missouri +9.12 0.784

Here is Missouri's season:

SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB. ==== ============================= ======= ====== ===== ===== HOME #229 Brown 68 60 +13.71 -5.71 HOME #104 Houston 77 61 +4.82 +11.18 HOME #130 Davidson 81 84 +6.58 -9.58 NEUT # 57 Creighton 54 78 -3.65 -20.35 NEUT #104 Houston 55 57 +0.76 -2.76 HOME #128 Murray State 59 55 +6.50 -2.50 HOME #183 Oakland-Mich. 70 61 +9.92 -0.92 HOME # 34 Arkansas 52 62 -2.12 -7.88 HOME #191 Montana 87 62 +11.04 +13.96 HOME # 49 Indiana 56 53 -0.05 +3.05 NEUT # 3 Illinois 64 70 -15.85 +9.85 HOME # 36 Gonzaga 63 61 -1.96 +3.96 HOME #166 American U. 64 51 +8.78 +4.22 HOME # 55 Iowa State 62 59 +0.32 +2.68 AWAY # 4 Oklahoma State 68 78 -19.84 +9.84 AWAY # 74 Kansas State 54 74 -5.86 -14.14 HOME # 21 Texas Tech 62 78 -4.24 -11.76 HOME # 60 Nebraska 80 70 +1.02 +8.98 AWAY #132 Colorado 62 64 -1.44 -0.56 HOME # 74 Kansas State 53 64 +2.26 -13.26 AWAY # 10 Kansas 61 73 -17.24 +5.24 AWAY # 28 Texas A&M 63 91 -11.38 -16.62 AWAY # 83 UNLV 71 74 -4.97 +1.97 HOME # 6 Oklahoma 68 65 -10.14 +13.14 HOME #196 Baylor 60 53 +11.44 -4.44 AWAY # 60 Nebraska 56 53 -7.10 +10.10 HOME #132 Colorado 63 54 +6.68 +2.32 AWAY # 18 Texas 51 63 -13.32 +1.32 AWAY # 55 Iowa State 49 67 -7.80 -10.20 HOME # 10 Kansas -9.12 0.166

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