Sobering Math.

As much as I like to think that KU will win the National Championship, I must admit that at best, they have about an 8%-10% chance of winning. Even the best team has the odds heavily stacked against them. Let's look at Illinois' possible trek to greatness. I think it's fair to rate their chances of winning the first game as 100%. For their second game, potentially a team like Georgia Tech or Maryland, I give them a charitable 85% chance of winning. In the sweet sixteen, where things get a bit tougher, I give them a 75% chance of winning. In the fourth round, where they could play a number 2 seed, I give them a 65% chance of winning. And just because they are the best team in the land, I give them a 60% chance of winning their last two games. Using those numbers, I compute the chances that Illinois win the title as follows.

1 x .85 x .75 x .65 x .6 x .6

Their chances: 14.9%

Their chances are better than others' but at the end of the day, they're still not all that good.

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