Sagarin/Dolphin/Pomeroy predictions for Kansas State game

In my best Dick Vitale voice, "Can the Jayhawks pull off thetrifecta, baybee?!"

Actually, playing Kansas State three times in a season isn't all that uncommon. Given that the winning streak is at 30 games, and the last loss to Kansas State was in 1994, the Jayhawks and Wildcats have averaged 2.6 contests per season. That is, about every other year these two teams have met in the post-season tournament(s).

The Sagarin Pure Points ratings through games of Thursday favor Kansas by 10.4 points, with the Jayhawks having an 81 percent chance of winning the game. Kansas is currently underrate by 1.6 points, while Kansas State is underrated by 0.4 points, so the adjusted margin is 11.6 points. The trends, however, are disturbing. The Wildcats have been getting better, which culminated in their victory over Texas A&M in the play-in round of the Big XII Tournament. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks have been playing more poorly, with four of the five losses coming in the last six games. If you take the trends at face value, it's enough for a 13.6 point swing, which would favor Kansas State by 2.0 points. Kansas State has played above expectation by at least 11.6 points on three occasions so far this season, two of them coming against Missouri, and a fourth such performance would be enough to overcome the adjusted Sagarin margin. Similarly, Kansas has played more than 11.6 points below expectation on three occasions this season, namely Villanova and the home games against Nebraska and Iowa State.

Pomeroy's ratings of 64.20 and 56.87 for Kansas and Kansas State, respectively, predict a 7.3 point victory for Kansas.

Dolphin is predicting a final score of 72 to 63 in favor of Kansas, with the Jayhawks having a 77 percent chance of winning the game.

All ten conference opponents are obviously in common, the conference regular season having been completed. Plus there are the two head-to-head games:

KU + 2 NU at home (- 2 neutral court) KU +13 NU on road (+17 neutral court) KSU -10 NU on road (- 6 neutral court) KSU +20 NU at home (+16 neutral court) KU vs. KSU + 2.5 neutral court

KU - 1 TT on road (+ 3 neutral court) KSU - 3 TT at home (- 7 neutral court) KU vs. KSU +10 neutral court

KU +12 MU at home (+ 8 neutral court) KU - 4 KU on road ( 0 neutral court) KSU +20 MU at home (+16 neutral court) KSU +11 MU on road (+15 neutral court) KU vs. KSU -11.5 neutral court

KU + 5 aTm at home (+ 1 neutral court) KSU -14 aTm on road (-10 neutral court) KSU + 6 aTm BXII Tr (+ 6 neutral court) KU vs. KSU + 3 neutral court

KU + 5 ISU on road (+ 9 neutral court) KU - 2 ISU at home (- 6 neutral court) KSU +12 ISU at home (+ 8 neutral court) KSU -15 ISU on road (-11 neutral court) KU vs. KSU + 3 neutral court

KU + 2 OSU at home (- 2 neutral court) KSU -20 OSU on road (-16 neutral court) KU vs. KSU +14 neutral court

KU +15 CU on road (+19 neutral court) KU +29 CU at home (+25 neutral court) KSU -10 CU at home (-14 neutral court) KSU + 2 CU on road (+ 6 neutral court) KU vs. KSU +26 neutral court

KU +25 UT at home (+21 neutral court) KSU - 3 UT on road (+ 1 neutral court) KU vs. KSU +20 neutral court

KU - 8 OU on road (- 4 neutral court) KSU - 1 OU at home (- 5 neutral court) KU vs. KSU + 1 neutral court

KU +20 BU on road (+24 neutral court) KSU +11 BU at home (+ 9 neutral court) KU vs. KSU +15 neutral court

KU + 9 KSU on road (+13 neutral court) KU + 7 KSU at home (+ 3 neutral court) KU vs. KSU + 8 neutral court

The only comparison that does not favor Kansas is Missouri. Apparently the intensity of that rivalry outweighs other considerations. In all other cases, Kansas played the opponents tougher than Kansas State did. These average to 8.3 points in favor of Kansas, with standard deviation of 10.3 points.

The intangibles include the fact that Langford will be out for today's game, but Kansas State's legs should be a little tired having played just yesterday. ======================== Sagarin ======================= Rate SoS Elo PP Perf Inc. Trend ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ============== Kansas # 9 # 1 # 10 # 11 +1.6 11.8 -0.56 +/- 0.27 Kansas State # 66 # 64 # 64 # 73 +0.4 9.4 +0.41 +/- 0.22

== Massey = = Pomeroy = == Herman = === RPI === ==== Rate SoS Rate SoS Rate SoS Rate SOS Rec. ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Kansas # 6 # 2 # 12 # 3 # 3 # 1 # 1 # 1 22-5 Kansas State # 62 # 60 # 67 # 98 # 69 # 42 #114 # 93 16-11

======================= Dolphin ====================== Std. Med. Pre. IRPI RPI Pair Poll Sched ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ===== Kansas # 7 # 7 # 12 # 4 # 1 # 6 # 7 0.986 Kansas State # 73 # 73 # 58 # 90 # 75 # 69 # 73 0.576

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB. ==== ============================= ======= ====== ===== ===== HOME # 42 Vermont 68 61 +11.55 -4.55 HOME # 70 Saint Joseph's 91 51 +14.35 +25.65 HOME # 47 Nevada 85 52 +12.38 +20.62 HOME # 37 Pacific 81 70 +10.94 +0.06 HOME #108 TCU 93 74 +17.56 +1.44 HOME # 77 Louisiana-Lafayette 96 51 +15.01 +29.99 HOME # 53 South Carolina 64 60 +12.79 -8.79 HOME # 35 Wis.-Milwaukee 73 62 +10.80 +0.20 HOME # 14 Georgia Tech 70 68 +6.05 -4.05 HOME # 28 Texas A&M 65 60 +9.35 -4.35 AWAY # 9 Kentucky 65 59 -4.89 +10.89 AWAY # 48 Iowa State 71 66 +4.32 +0.68 AWAY #118 Colorado 76 61 +10.53 +4.47 HOME # 67 Nebraska 59 57 +14.10 -12.10 AWAY # 16 Villanova 62 83 -1.69 -19.31 AWAY #203 Baylor 86 66 +16.16 +3.84 HOME # 19 Texas 90 65 +7.96 +17.04 HOME # 81 Missouri 73 61 +15.52 -3.52 AWAY # 67 Nebraska 78 65 +5.96 +7.04 AWAY # 73 Kansas State 74 65 +6.37 +2.63 HOME #118 Colorado 89 60 +18.67 +10.33 AWAY # 21 Texas Tech 79 80 +0.09 -1.09 HOME # 48 Iowa State 61 63 +12.46 -14.46 AWAY # 6 Oklahoma 63 71 -5.65 -2.35 HOME # 3 Oklahoma State 81 79 +0.98 +1.02 HOME # 73 Kansas State 72 65 +14.51 -7.51 AWAY # 81 Missouri 68 72 +7.38 -11.38 NEUT # 73 Kansas State +10.44 0.813

Here is Kansas State's season:

SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB. ==== ============================= ======= ====== ===== ===== HOME #298 North Dakota State 70 61 +21.76 -12.76 HOME # 91 Denver 60 56 +5.60 -1.60 HOME # 92 Washington State 62 53 +5.69 +3.31 HOME #327 Ark.-Pine Bluff 76 42 +28.65 +5.35 HOME #183 Oakland-Mich. 76 69 +12.03 -5.03 NEUT #120 Wyoming 64 61 +4.29 -1.29 HOME #189 Texas-San Antonio 73 69 +12.99 -8.99 HOME #132 Northern Illinois 81 66 +8.86 +6.14 HOME #138 Rutgers 66 76 +9.18 -19.18 HOME #253 Eastern Illinois 81 63 +17.15 +0.85 Div2 Central Missouri 80 58 AWAY # 67 Nebraska 85 95 -4.48 -5.52 HOME # 21 Texas Tech 76 79 -2.21 -0.79 HOME # 81 Missouri 74 54 +5.08 +14.92 AWAY # 28 Texas A&M 51 65 -9.23 -4.77 HOME # 48 Iowa State 63 51 +2.02 +9.98 AWAY # 81 Missouri 64 53 -3.06 +14.06 AWAY # 3 Oklahoma State 57 77 -17.60 -2.40 HOME #118 Colorado 60 70 +8.23 -18.23 HOME # 11 Kansas 65 74 -6.37 -2.63 AWAY # 19 Texas 72 75 -10.62 +7.62 AWAY # 48 Iowa State 42 57 -6.12 -8.88 HOME # 6 Oklahoma 68 69 -7.95 +6.95 HOME #203 Baylor 80 69 +13.86 -2.86 AWAY #118 Colorado 84 82 +0.09 +1.91 AWAY # 11 Kansas 65 72 -14.51 +7.51 HOME # 67 Nebraska 73 53 +3.66 +16.34 NEUT # 28 Texas A&M 68 62 -5.16 +11.16 NEUT # 11 Kansas -10.44 0.132

-->