Sagarin/Dolphin/Pomeroy predictions for Oklahoma State game

It's deja vu all over again, this time without the home court advantageand also without Langford.

Although Sagarin's overall rating once again has Kansas immediately ahead of Oklahoma State, in the Pure Points rating, ostensibly the best predictor of future games, the Cowboys are five spots ahead of Kansas and 2.4 points ahead. That corresponds to a 42 percent chance of the Jayhawks winning the game. However, Kansas is underrated by 1.5 points while Oklahoma State is underrated by only 0.5 points, which trims the margin to just 1.4 points in favor of the Cowboys. Not quite as close as the Texas Tech prediction, which actually expected the overtime that occurred in reality, but close enough that it may depend on who has the last possession. Interestingly, both Kansas and Oklahoma State have virtually identical (negative) trends. The Cowboys have not played well in their last two games and have been below expectation in their last five, three of them by double figures. Kansas has been more consistent in its last five games, though overall, Oklahoma State is the slightly more consistent team (by half a point).

Massey has Kansas ranked six places ahead of Oklahoma State, which means that he might be favoring Kansas in the game, but by how much is unknown, given that his margin of victory ratings aren't being publicly released this season.

Pomeroy has Oklahoma State ahead of Kansas by three spots, with ratings of 65.17 and 64.48, respectively, thus favoring the Cowboys by 0.7 points.

Dolphin is predicting a final score of 72 to 71 in favor of Oklahoma State, with Kansas having a 46 percent chance of winning. Kansas is ahead of Oklahoma State in all of Dolphin's rankings except the Predictive category, which apparently is what he uses for the score prognostications.

All ten conference opponents are obviously in common, the conference regular season having been completed. Plus there is the head-to-head:

KU - 1 TT on road (+ 3 neutral court) OSU +10 TT on road (+14 neutral court) OSU +29 TT at home (+25 neutral court) KU vs. OSU -16.5 neutral court

KU +12 MU at home (+ 8 neutral court) KU - 4 MU on road ( 0 neutral court) OSU +10 MU at home (+ 6 neutral court) KU vs. OSU - 2.0 neutral court

KU + 5 ISU on road (+ 9 neutral court) KU - 2 ISU at home (- 6 neutral court) OSU +10 ISU at home (+ 6 neutral court) KU vs. OSU - 4.5 neutral court

KU +25 UT at home (+21 neutral court) OSU -14 UT on road (-10 neutral court) OSU - 1 UT at home (- 5 neutral court) KU vs. OSU +14.5 neutral court

KU +20 BU on road (+24 neutral court) OSU +29 BU at home (+25 neutral court) OSU +18 BU on road (+22 neutral court) KU vs. OSU + 0.5 neutral court

KU - 8 OU on road (- 4 neutral court) OSU -10 OU on road (- 6 neutral court) OSU +12 OU at home (+ 8 neutral court) KU vs. OSU - 5.0 neutral court

KU +15 CU on road (+19 neutral court) KU +29 CU at home (+25 neutral court) OSU +18 CU on road (+22 neutral court) OSU + 2 CU BXII Tr (+ 2 neutral court) KU vs. OSU +10.0 neutral court

KU + 9 KSU on road (+13 neutral court) KU + 7 KSU at home (+ 3 neutral court) KU +13 KSU BXII Tr (+13 neutral court) OSU +20 KSU at home (+16 neutral court) KU vs. OSU - 6.3 neutral court

KU + 5 aTm at home (+ 1 neutral court) OSU + 7 aTm on road (+11 neutral court) OSU + 6 aTm at home (+ 2 neutral court) KU vs. OSU - 5.5 neutral court

KU + 2 NU at home (- 2 neutral court) KU +13 NU on road (+17 neutral court) OSU - 7 NU on road (- 3 neutral court) KU vs. OSU +10.5 neutral court

KU + 2 OSU at home (- 2 neutral court) KU vs. OSU - 2.0 neutral court

Only four of the comparisons favor Kansas, with the average being -0.57 points and standard deviation of 9.01 points. So the various methods of comparing these two teams are all rather consistent, with Oklahoma State coming out ahead by anywhere from 0.6 to 1.4 points. Too bad Massey is keeping his margin of victory ratings a secret, because he's the only one who might be favoring the Jayhawks in today's rematch.

The worst thing about playing Kansas State for a third time is that it dropped Kansas behind Virginia and Purdue in Sagarin's strength of schedule computation. However, today's game against a top ten team should help to rectify that situation. ======================== Sagarin ======================= Rate SoS Elo PP Perf Inc. Trend ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ============== Kansas # 8 # 3 # 8 # 10 +1.5 11.6 -0.50 +/- 0.26 Oklahoma State # 9 # 9 # 14 # 5 +0.5 11.1 -0.51 +/- 0.26

== Massey = = Pomeroy = == Herman = === RPI === ==== Rate SoS Rate SoS Rate SoS Rate SOS Rec. ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Kansas # 6 # 3 # 11 # 4 # 3 # 1 # 1 # 1 23-5 Oklahoma State # 12 # 12 # 8 # 29 # 6 # 9 # 7 # 2 22-6

======================= Dolphin ====================== Std. Med. Pre. IRPI RPI Pair Poll Sched ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ===== Kansas # 6 # 6 # 11 # 4 # 1 # 5 # 7 0.965 Oklahoma State # 11 # 12 # 7 # 11 # 7 # 11 # 8 0.970

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB. ==== ============================= ======= ====== ===== ===== HOME # 42 Vermont 68 61 +11.64 -4.64 HOME # 63 Saint Joseph's 91 51 +14.00 +26.00 HOME # 50 Nevada 85 52 +12.51 +20.49 HOME # 41 Pacific 81 70 +11.55 -0.55 HOME #105 TCU 93 74 +17.69 +1.31 HOME # 76 Louisiana-Lafayette 96 51 +15.13 +29.87 HOME # 54 South Carolina 64 60 +12.91 -8.91 HOME # 35 Wis.-Milwaukee 73 62 +10.93 +0.07 HOME # 15 Georgia Tech 70 68 +6.34 -4.34 HOME # 29 Texas A&M 65 60 +9.66 -4.66 AWAY # 6 Kentucky 65 59 -5.26 +11.26 AWAY # 53 Iowa State 71 66 +4.62 +0.38 AWAY #114 Colorado 76 61 +10.41 +4.59 HOME # 68 Nebraska 59 57 +14.26 -12.26 AWAY # 16 Villanova 62 83 -1.49 -19.51 AWAY #210 Baylor 86 66 +16.81 +3.19 HOME # 19 Texas 90 65 +7.83 +17.17 HOME # 78 Missouri 73 61 +15.39 -3.39 AWAY # 68 Nebraska 78 65 +6.12 +6.88 AWAY # 73 Kansas State 74 65 +6.61 +2.39 HOME #114 Colorado 89 60 +18.55 +10.45 AWAY # 22 Texas Tech 79 80 +0.08 -1.08 HOME # 53 Iowa State 61 63 +12.76 -14.76 AWAY # 7 Oklahoma 63 71 -4.89 -3.11 HOME # 5 Oklahoma State 81 79 +1.68 +0.32 HOME # 73 Kansas State 72 65 +14.75 -7.75 AWAY # 78 Missouri 68 72 +7.25 -11.25 NEUT # 73 Kansas State 80 67 +10.68 +2.32 NEUT # 5 Oklahoma State -2.39 0.419

Here is Oklahoma State's season:

SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB. ==== ============================= ======= ====== ===== ===== HOME #163 NW Louisiana 91 53 +23.95 +14.05 HOME #154 Ark.-Little Rock 90 65 +23.04 +1.96 HOME #164 Sam Houston State 73 57 +24.09 -8.09 AWAY #122 SMU 76 57 +13.28 +5.72 HOME # 92 Washington State 81 29 +18.62 +33.38 NEUT # 21 Syracuse 74 60 +6.51 +7.49 HOME # 38 UAB 86 73 +13.54 -0.54 AWAY # 82 UNLV 79 67 +10.03 +1.97 NAIA NW Oklahoma State 92 35 NEUT # 34 Gonzaga 75 78 +8.95 -11.95 AWAY #177 Texas A&M-CorpusChristi 86 61 +16.35 +8.65 AWAY # 22 Texas Tech 76 66 +2.47 +7.53 HOME # 78 Missouri 78 68 +17.78 -7.78 HOME # 53 Iowa State 83 73 +15.15 -5.15 AWAY # 19 Texas 61 75 +2.08 -16.08 HOME #210 Baylor 82 53 +27.34 +1.66 AWAY # 7 Oklahoma 57 67 -2.50 -7.50 AWAY #114 Colorado 104 86 +12.80 +5.20 HOME # 73 Kansas State 77 57 +17.14 +2.86 AWAY #210 Baylor 81 63 +19.20 -1.20 HOME # 7 Oklahoma 79 67 +5.64 +6.36 AWAY # 29 Texas A&M 66 59 +3.91 +3.09 HOME # 22 Texas Tech 85 56 +10.61 +18.39 AWAY # 68 Nebraska 67 74 +8.51 -15.51 AWAY # 10 Kansas 79 81 -1.68 -0.32 HOME # 29 Texas A&M 69 63 +12.05 -6.05 HOME # 19 Texas 73 74 +10.22 -11.22 NEUT #114 Colorado 87 85 +16.87 -14.87 NEUT # 10 Kansas +2.39 0.585

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