Big 12 Tournament Pythagorean Predictions

Over on Ken Pomeroy's site, a reader sent in Big East and ACC tournament predictions based on his Pythagorean Ratings. (Thanks to Jeremy for pointing this out.) They're about what you'd expect: the only teams with a better than 10% chance of winning their tournaments are Duke and UNC in the ACC and UConn and Villanova in the Big East. I thought it'd be fun to do the same with the Big 12 tournament:

Seed Team Quarters Semis Finals Champions
1 Texas 100.00% 89.71% 75.07% 50.93%
2 Kansas 100.00% 82.20% 65.43% 32.91%
3 Oklahoma 100.00% 75.68% 22.80% 6.11%
4 Texas A&M 100.00% 61.19% 13.90% 4.81%
5 Colorado 75.55% 33.75% 6.61% 2.01%
7 Oklahoma State 53.13% 9.91% 4.82% 1.05%
9 Kansas State 65.59% 7.97% 3.35% 0.87%
10 Iowa State 46.87% 7.89% 3.60% 0.72%
6 Nebraska 63.86% 17.83% 2.72% 0.37%
8 Texas Tech 34.41% 2.33% 0.65% 0.11%
12 Baylor 24.45% 5.06% 0.42% 0.06%
11 Missouri 36.14% 6.50% 0.62% 0.05%

At first I was surprised how unbalanced the Big 12 tournament is compared to the other two. The lowest chances of any team in the Big East or ACC tournaments is Georgia Tech, with a 0.42% chance. Meanwhile here in the Big 12, there are 4 teams with worse shots. Then I realized that the spread from best to worst in the Big 12 is a lot larger:

Big East: UConn - Seton Hall = .955 - .783 = .172

ACC: Duke - Georgia Tech = .954 - .731 = .223

Big 12: Texas - Missouri = .967 - .582 = .385

Nebraska, Texas Tech, and Baylor are all also worse than Georgia Tech (the worst team in either of the other two tournaments). No wonder people are dumping on the Big 12 so much this year. The bottom teams are really, really bad.

I was also a little surprised that Texas's odds are so much better than Kansas's, but take a look at their most likely opponents for each round.

Texas: KSU (.802), Tex A&M (.865), Kansas (.953)

Kansas: OSU (.823), OU (.864), Texas (.967)

Regardless of the stats, it's clear that Texas are the two solid favorites to take home the trophy. Although if KU wins, the Big 12 may forget to give one to them.

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