Kansas - Niagara Preview

Originally posted on HackTheBracket.

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

  • Full Season Prediction ... Kansas 88, Niagara 60
  • Last 10 Prediction ... Kansas 90, Niagara 59
  • Vs. Good Prediction ... Kansas 90, Niagara 60
  • Trendline Prediction ... Kansas 89, Niagara 60
  • Best 6 Prediction ... Kansas 104, Niagara 63

explanation

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 69.6 10 118.0 14 81.1 1 .9870 2
Vs. Good 69.4 12 118.4 17 84.2 1 .9806 2
Trendline 68.8 14 125.9 7 83.0 6 .9918 1
Last 10 68.5 13 124.1 4 79.4 1 .9941 1
Best 6 69.1 15 131.4 3 76.3 3 .9981 1

[FULL DISCLOSURE: I'm a Kansas fan.] Kansas is one of the hottest teams in country headed into the NCAA tournament. They've won 11 straight, and 14 of 15 (with the only loss against Texas A&M in a game they led late). They've had 15 straight games with an adjusted offense over 110, and 5 of 6 over 120. They've had an adjusted defense below 90 in 10 of 11 games, with the only blip being against Kevin Durant (i.e. forgivable). They've had 10 games in a row with an overall rating over .95 (NCAA quality). The biggest concern heading into the tournament is probably experience. Nobody on the roster has won an NCAA tournament game before. I'm not sure if a team with so little tourney experience has ever won the title before, but I'd put my money on NO.

KANSAS PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Rush 80.3 51.2 68.5 1.08 24.6 3.3 3.6 1.6 0.8 6.0 13.0
Chalmers 72.4 57.8 78.2 1.24 24.4 5.8 4.3 1.0 4.7 1.1 10.5
Robinson 67.9 48.4 65.0 1.08 13.9 9.1 3.8 1.0 3.7 4.3 8.1
Wright 67.8 55.8 62.5 1.16 25.5 4.6 5.2 3.1 2.9 11.0 20.5
Collins 55.6 58.6 77.2 1.23 24.9 7.7 4.2 0.0 1.7 1.9 9.3
Arthur 47.3 53.4 63.7 1.12 30.6 1.2 3.9 4.4 2.9 12.7 14.5
Kaun 39.9 53.9 51.8 1.09 20.4 1.4 3.1 4.6 1.3 11.4 13.6
Jackson 38.0 53.4 67.0 1.19 20.6 1.3 3.8 2.3 1.3 15.9 20.0

ADJUSTED GAME EFFICIENCY DATA

  Tempo Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Overall Rnk
Overall 69.3 12 105.2 53 107.6 63 .4350 59
Vs. Good 68.6 15 101.4 55 108.9 65 .3059 62
Trendline 69.1 12 103.7 56 101.3 51 .5671 59
Last 10 68.6 11 107.2 54 105.5 59 .5444 59
Best 6 69.1 16 117.3 34 112.7 65 .6136 62

Niagara's poor offensive performance in their first 8 games can be explained away by the fact that their leading scorer (Charron Fisher) didn't play. Unfortunately, even with Fisher their offense isn't stellar, and their defense is below average. Their performance against good teams in the chart is skewed by the inclusion of some non-Fisher games, but even with those removed, their offensive and defensive numbers are only 106.5/103.8, above average but nothing special. Still, they deserve better than the play-in game.

NIAGARA PLAYER STATS

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Miles 82.3 48.9 70.0 1.07 22.0 6.1 3.7 0.1 2.0 2.9 8.3
Duffey 80.1 52.0 71.3 1.10 19.0 2.4 2.6 0.2 1.4 7.4 11.8
Brown 78.2 45.4 75.9 0.99 27.7 1.5 4.1 0.6 1.3 11.6 21.7
Fisher 63.1 50.9 76.0 1.14 36.4 1.9 5.0 0.9 1.5 8.9 18.7
Hodge 59.7 53.6 84.8 1.32 11.4 9.4 4.2 0.1 2.0 4.4 13.8
Lewis 56.7 50.4 65.5 1.07 24.6 3.6 3.5 0.8 3.3 7.9 7.2
Brooks 46.1 41.4 78.3 1.00 15.5 4.2 3.7 0.1 1.5 4.0 4.2
Egemonye 12.2 60.9 35.7 1.13 11.8 1.4 4.3 2.8 2.5 11.8 12.3

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