Preview: Kansas vs. UCLA (West Regional Final)

Cross-posted from HackTheBracket. This should look a whole lot like the previous round games for these teams. UCLA is playing the best defense in the tourney, and will try to slow down Kansas, just like Southern Illinois did.

The efficiency predictions look quite sensible. UCLA has played slightly better in the three NCAA Tournament games but Kansas was playing slightly better at the end of the regular season/during the conference tournament.

If Kansas can return to their normal levels of turnovers committed and defensive rebounds garnered, they'll be dangerous for UCLA. Despite an outstanding defensive performance overall from Southern Illinois, Kansas did shoot 60.7 eFG% and that was their worst shooting performance of the tournament so far. UCLA (70.4 DR% on the season) should, however, be able to keep Kansas off the offensive glass when the Jayhawks do miss a shot.

The biggest problem UCLA will pose for Kansas is deciding which of Arron Afflalo or Josh Shipp Brandon Rush will guard down the stretch. Shipp's numbers are certainly helped by the attention Afflalo draws from opposing defenses, but they aren't really that different.

Name %Min eFG% FT% PPWS Pts A TO BS S OR% DR%
Afflalo 83.2 54.0 80.0 1.16 30.7 3.7 3.2 0.5 1.2 1.5 8.9
Shipp 72.5 53.3 77.0 1.15 27.4 5.1 3.7 0.5 2.4 4.9 11.0

If it comes down to free throw shooting, expect both fan bases to be covering their eyes. Kansas and UCLA both shoot 66.3% from the line on the year.

FIRST 3 GAMES ADJ. EFFICIENCY

Tempo Offense Defense Overall
Kansas 71.3 127.5 87.0 .9831
UCLA 61.7 110.6 73.0 .9903

EFFICIENCY PREDICTIONS

  • Full Season Prediction ... Kansas 65, UCLA 63
  • Last 10 Prediction ... Kansas 68, UCLA 63
  • Vs. Good Prediction ... Kansas 67, UCLA 66
  • Trendline Prediction ... Kansas 66, UCLA 61
  • Tourney So Far Prediction ... UCLA 62, Kansas 60

UPDATED GRAPHS

Kansas team capsule UCLA team capsule

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