MID-WEEK RECAP

When the story of this season is written, if KU fails to extend its string of conference championships to eight, we just might look back at Monday night as the reason. No, KU didn’t play on Monday. Nevertheless, the Jayhawks lost ground to Mizzou, courtesy of Missouri’s own version of Freeman Johns, III.

Tom Penders tweeted, after Myck Kabongo’s hand was grabbed by Matt Pressey while attempting a fairly easy game winning shot: “Texas gets fouled but no call on last play as Mizzou player grabs left arm on baseline shot by UT! Ref swallowed whistle is a cop in MO.” He later identified this individual as Gerry Pollard, while again mentioning his home state. And yet a third time: “Rick Barnes was livid at the end of the game when ex Mizzou Cop, Gerry Pollard swallowed (sic) his whistle.”

When challenged by a Mizzou fan, Penders responded: “Refs were fair most of the game but there is no excuse 4 Gerry Pollard to swallow his whistle on the last play.”

Photographic evidence shows that, at least on this occasion, Penders was correct.

Not sure if $ signs were somehow involved. Still, it would be humorous for UT to be the victim of its own F.J. III moment but for the fact that KU was the REAL victim. Texas is on the Road to Nowhere this season, anyway. The Jayhawks, on the other hand, now must make up this game elsewhere—as in Manhattan or Stillwater, venues where Mizzou was not bailed out by Mr. Johns—err, Pollard.

Not that it would make a difference in most years when the Hawks are head and shoulders above their primary competitors. Although they might well be the best team in the conference again this year, their margin for error is such that a little kindness from strangers would be greatly appreciated.

The Jayhawks’ best opportunity to take their fate into their own hands starts Saturday at Mizzou. Win in Columbia and complete the sweep in Lawrence, and Mizzou can go its merry way into the oblivion of the Southeast Conference without ever having won a Big 12 championship in any worthwhile activity.

As for Baylor, no help there either. A&M did everything but beat the Bears. Incredibly, however, while looking like the better-coached team for all but a few of the game’s 2,400 seconds, they threw up a wild, desperation shot with ten seconds remaining–plenty of time to find the type of high percentage shot that had brought it to within one shot of victory–thus ending any hope of making the Bears sic.

In sum, Mizzou picked up big half a game over both KU and Baylor with its W in Austin. Baylor treaded water with its projected victory in College Station, as did KU over Oklahoma in Lawrence, Iowa St over K-State in Ames (in another game decided in large part by questionable Big 12 officiating), and Okie St in its win in Lubbock.

THE TIERS

Tier 1: Baylor, KU, Mizzou

Tier 2: Iowa St, K-State, Texas

Tier 3: Oklahoma, Okie St, Texas A&M

Tier 4: Texas Tech

REAL BIG 12 STANDINGS

2-2-12

1. 15-3

Mizzou (7-2) Projected L’s: at KU
At Risk games: N/A

2. 14.5-3.5

KU (8-1) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at Baylor
At Risk games: at K-State

3. 14-4

Baylor (7-2) Projected L’s: at Mizzou
At Risk games: at UT, at ISU

4. 10.5-7.5

Iowa St (6-3) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at K-State, at Mizzou

At Risk games: at OU, at Okie St, vs. Baylor

5. 9-9

Texas (3-6) Projected L’s: at KU
At Risk games: at A&M, at OU, at Okie St, vs. Baylor

6. 9-9

K-State (4-5) Projected L’s: at Texas, at Baylor, at Mizzou
At Risk games: vs. KU, at A&M

7. 6.5-11.5

Oklahoma (3-6) Projected L’s: vs. Mizzou, at ISU, at Baylor,
at Texas

At Risk games: vs. ISU, at Tech, vs. Texas

8. 6-12

Okie St (4-5) Projected L’s: vs. Baylor, at KU,
at Mizzou, at OU, vs. KU, at K-State

At Risk games: vs. ISU, vs. Texas

9. 4.5-13.5

Texas A&M (3-6) Projected L’s: at K-State, at ISU, vs.
Mizzou, vs. KU, at Okie St, at OU

At Risk games: vs. UT, at Tech, vs. K-State

10 1-17

Texas Tech (0-9) Projected L’s: at Texas, at K-State, at KU,
At ISU, vs. Texas, at Baylor, vs. Mizzou

At Risk games: vs. OU, vs. A&M

ON THE TUBE

SATURDAY

Baylor at Okie St***1/2: (12:30p.m.—Big 12 Network) (Projected W: Baylor)

Can Okie St take out its second contender at Home? It certainly isn’t doing anything productive on the Road in any town not called Lubbock.

Texas A&M at K-State ***1/2: (3:00p.m.—Big 12 Network) (Projected W: K-State)

A must win game for K-State. And not one that is automatic the way A&M has been playing recently.

Iowa St at Oklahoma***1/2: (5:00p.m.—ESPN2) (At-risk game)

How important is Hilton Coliseum to ISU? As important, for example, as Royce White? We might well know by the end of this game.

Texas Tech at Texas*: (6:00p.m.—LHN) (Projected W: Texas)

Good news for Texas. This game will not be decided on the game’s final possession.

KU at Mizzou *****: (8:00p.m.—ESPN) (Projected W: MU)

Bill Self has a history of success against gimmick teams like Mizzou. This game, however, presents two unique challenges: First, it is in Columbia, where lesser Mizzou teams have found ways to upset better KU teams than this one. This Mizzou team is, in fact, comfortably unbeaten at Home.

Second, Mizzou is not just a gimmick team this year. Whether attributable to Frank Haith, experience, or a convergence of the fates, Mizzou has a smart, good shooting team that plays better as a unit than their talent would suggest—better by far than any Mizzou team in recent memory (as in those coached by Mike Anderson and Quin Snyder.)

Still, Mizzou is not overpowering. They are the epitome of a finesse team. if both teams stay out of foul trouble, the Hawks will prevail if they dominate inside on both ends of the floor, taking a minimum of three pointers and forcing Mizzou to take a maximum. Mizzou has a plethora of good shooters, but not good enough to carry it for 40 minutes against a team that is more physical, better coached, and has heard of defense. Especially at crunch time.

Then again, there is always the Home Court thing, which is kinda important in the REAL world. . .

–Mark

WEEKEND RECAP

Two major surprises this Saturday. The first involved Lonnie Kruger, completing a sweep of his alma mater in Manhattan. Coached Steven Pledger into scoring 30 points en route to a 63-60 victory. K-State, having dropped 1 and ½ games in the REAL Standings directly attributable to the Sooners, is now fighting for its post-season life with a projected league record of 9-9.

The other surprise was in Ames. No, not KU falling to Iowa St. Anyone who didn’t see that as a REAL possibility going in was not paying attention. In the most recent version of the REAL Standings, it was noted that it would be helpful if Royce White would duplicate his foul trouble vs. Mizzou and limit his PT to 27 minutes. No such luck. He played 36.

The surprise came from press row when Fran Fraschilla (or Fra-Fra as his close friends call him) stated that the game he was covering reminded him of Wednesday night’s game between Mizzou and Okie St. His reasoning? KU had controlled much of the game, yet was in danger of losing it in the game’s final moments.

Dare I dub this statement Fran-tasmagorical? If Fran thought KU was in control of this game for more than a matter of seconds, when the score was 47-41, he was confusing the game in this dimension with one from a parallel universe visible only to him. For a good 38 of the game’s 40 minutes, the Jayhawks were scrambling just to hang around. They not only never controlled the game, they were frequently out of control on offense and unable to control rebounds—particularly those on missed Iowa St three pointers.

At least Fra-Fra was attempting to talk about the game he was covering, unlike—well, you know. . .

In short, the Jayhawks’ shortcomings were on full display while the mental toughness, sheer effort, and basketball IQ needed to pull out close games on the Road took the day off.

However, as one wise Jayhawk fan noted after the game: We weren’t going 18-0 anyway. This is almost certainly true. Too little margin for error for a team that gets nothing from its bench, especially when one of its two superstars has less than a superstar kind of day.

Nor are the Hawks going 17-1. But neither will anyone else. There is not a complete team in the conference, or, even, the country. The question is whether the Hawks will show up in enough of their remaining games to actually achieve their projected 14-15 W’s; if so, that might be enough, based on the deficiencies of their primary rivals, for another league crown.

In other words, no time to panic, just as it was not time for Mizzou to panic last Wednesday. There will be plenty of time to panic after the first Home loss by either team, if and when that happens. And, as a subjective matter, I can see Mizzou having trouble protecting its Home “turf” against both Iowa St and Baylor, which could be decisive unless either KU or Mizzou sweeps the other.

Speaking of Mizzou, they won as projected (vs. Tech), as did A&M (over Okie St in College Station) and Baylor (over Texas in Waco).

THE TIERS

Tier 1: Baylor, KU, Mizzou

Tier 2: Iowa St, K-State, Texas

Tier 3: Oklahoma, Okie St, Texas A&M

Tier 4: Texas Tech

REAL BIG 12 STANDINGS

1-26-12

1. 14.5-3.5

KU (7-1) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at Baylor
At Risk games: at K-State

Mizzou (6-2) Projected L’s: at KU
At Risk games: at UT

3. 14-4

Baylor (6-2) Projected L’s: at Mizzou
At Risk games: at UT, at ISU

4. 10.5-7.5

Iowa St (5-3) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at K-State, at Mizzou

At Risk games: at OU, at Okie St, vs. Baylor

5. 9.5-8.5

Texas (3-5) Projected L’s: at KU
At Risk games: vs. Mizzou, at A&M, at OU, at Okie St, vs. Baylor

6. 9-9

K-State (4-4) Projected L’s: at ISU, at Texas, at Baylor, at Mizzou
At Risk games: vs. KU, at A&M

7. 6.5-11.5

Oklahoma (3-5) Projected L’s: at KU, vs. Mizzou, at ISU, at Baylor,
at Texas

At Risk games: vs. ISU, at Tech, vs. Texas

8. 5.5-12.5

Okie St (3-5) Projected L’s: vs. Baylor, at KU,
at Mizzou, at OU, vs. KU, at K-State

At Risk games: vs. ISU, at Tech, vs. Texas

9. 4.5-13.5

Texas A&M (3-5) Projected L’s: vs. Baylor, at K-State, at ISU, vs.
Mizzou, vs. KU, at Okie St, at OU

At Risk games: vs. UT, at Tech, vs. K-State

10 1.5-16.5

Texas Tech (0-8) Projected L’s: at Texas, at K-State, at KU,
At ISU, vs. Texas, at Baylor, vs. Mizzou

At Risk games: vs. Okie St, vs. OU, vs. A&M

ON THE TUBE

MONDAY

Mizzou at Texas****: (8:00p.m.—ESPN) (At-risk game)

Texas just might have more fans in Kansas Monday night than in the Lone Star State.

TUESDAY

Okie St at Texas Tech **: (7:00p.m.—Big 12 Network) (At-risk game)

If Tech doesn’t win this game, when will they?

K-State at Iowa St****: (8:00p.m.—Fox Sports) (Projected W: ISU)

Iowa St might be known for Hilton Magic, but after two losses to Oklahoma, K-State is the team that needs to pull a W out of its—uhh–hat.

WEDNESDAY

Baylor at A&M***1/2: (8:00p.m.—ESPN2) (Projected W: Baylor)

The Tier 3 teams are becoming downright feisty at Home. The REAL Standings template projects this as a Baylor W, but the Fighting Calipari-Lites are certainly capable of dropping this game and falling further behind KU and Mizzou,

Oklahoma at KU ***: (8:00p.m.—ESPNU) (Projected W: KU)

Reportedly, Lonnie was the Darrell Sproles of his day. He wanted to go to KU, but was not recruited by the Jayhawks. At least Ted Owens had a good reason for overlooking the all-state guard from Silver Lake: He already had the more highly rated Tom Kivisto lined up to be his PG from ’72-’74.

Lonnie went on to become two time Big 8 POY in 1973 and ‘74 as K-State won back to back conference championships. Made everyone around him better. He was like having a coach on the floor. Jack Hartman with a jump shot.

Meanwhile, Kivisto led the Hawks to the 1974 conference championship and Final Four. Probably a fair trade.

Imagine, however, the ripple effect that might have been: Larry-Roy-Lonnie? Larry-Lonnie-? Kruger Field at Memorial Stadium?

Here’s hoping Jayhawk fans aren’t yearning to change history around 10 o’clock Wednesday night.

–Mark

           
  MIDWEEK RECAP

I came across a retweet this afternoon from a KU fan rejoicing in the “fact” that KU has a two game lead over Mizzou.

Were that this were true in the REAL world. In the REAL world, the Jayhawks are in first place, but by a tenuous half game margin over its arch-rival for more than 100 years and for a few more weeks. This due to the fact that Mizzou has Ames, Waco, Manhattan, and–yes–Stillwater in its past. All places the Jayhawks have yet to visit.

Meanwhile, KU has only Norman, Austin, and Lubbock in its rear view mirror.

Of course, the Jayhawks, as competitors, would prefer zero losses and a daunting schedule to two losses and a softer road out ahead. But a loss in Ames this Saturday, and all bets are off. We will then have a flat-footed tie atop the REAL Standings.

in the meantime, KU enjoys a 1/2 game lead in the REAL Big 12 Standings, thanks to 49 points from two Okie St freshmen in the Cowboys’ 79-72 victory over Mizzou. And Mizzou can take scant comfort in the fact that this was a Road loss, because the team that wins the Big 12 title would be expected to beat Okie St wherever the two teams play.

The saving grace for Mizzou is that Okie St has some impressive young talent and a senior later in Page Keeton, the late Dean at the University of Texas School of Law. All right, this guy only seems that old.

At any rate, if Okie St has come of age, that game could be a test for the Hawks.

Aside from the Stillwater Surprise, the other Midweek contests went as projected: KU outlasted A&M; Texas took down Iowa St in Austin, in the game that nobody saw, either in person or on TV; Baylor downed OU in Norman; and K-State happily accepted its working-bye in Lubbock.

                       
                                                          THE TIERS

           
Tier 1:  Baylor, KU, Mizzou
 
Tier 2:  Iowa St, K-State, Texas
 
Tier 3:  Oklahoma, Okie St, Texas A&M 

Tier 4: Texas Tech

 
                             REAL BIG 12 STANDINGS

1-26-12
 
     
1.     15-3

KU      (7-0)                Projected L’s:  at Mizzou, at Baylor
                                   At Risk games: at ISU, at K-State

2. 14.5-3.5

Mizzou (5-2)              Projected L’s:  at KU
                                 At Risk games: at UT

3. 14-4

Baylor (5-2)               Projected L’s:  at Mizzou
                                  At Risk games: at UT, at ISU

 
4. 10-8

K-State (4-3)              Projected L’s:  at ISU, at Texas, at Baylor, at Mizzou
                                   At Risk games: vs. KU, at A&M

Iowa St (4-3)              Projected L’s:  at Baylor, at K-State, at Mizzou

                                 At Risk games: vs. KU, at OU, at Okie St, vs. Baylor

6. 9.5-8.5

Texas (3-4)                Projected L’s:  at Baylor, at KU
At Risk games: vs. Mizzou, at A&M, at OU, at Okie St, vs. Baylor

7. 5.5-12.5

Oklahoma (2-5)        Projected L’s:  at K-State, at
KU, vs. Mizzou, at ISU, at Baylor, at Texas

At Risk games: vs. ISU, at Tech, vs. Texas

Okie St (3-4)              Projected L’s: at A&M,  vs. Baylor, at KU,
at Mizzou, at OU, vs. KU, at K-State

                                   At Risk games: vs. ISU, at Tech, vs. Texas

 
9. 4.5-13.5
                                  
Texas A&M (2-5)      Projected L’s:  vs. Baylor, at K-State, at ISU, vs.
Mizzou, vs. KU, at Okie St, at OU

                                   At Risk games: vs. UT, at Tech, vs. K-State

10  1.5-16.5
 
Texas Tech (0-7)         Projected L’s:  at Mizzou, at Texas, at K-State, at KU,
At ISU, vs. Texas, at Baylor, vs. Mizzou
                               
                                    At Risk games: vs. Okie St, vs. OU, vs. A&M
 
 
                                               ON THE TUBE

SATURDAY
 
           Texas at Baylor****: (Noon—CBS) (Projected W: Baylor)

Texas is desperate for a nice Road W to strengthen its case for inclusion in the Big Dance. The Fighting Calipari-Lites, however, are despert themselves; they can ill afford another loss at Home. Well worth watching. For an hour, anyway.

           Texas Tech at Mizzou *: (12:30p.m.—Big 12 Network) (Projected W: Mizzou)

Projected W for Mizzou? Don’t we have something stronger than “Projected”? “Guaranteed” might not be too strong in this case.

KU at Iowa St****: (1:00p.m.—ESPN) (At-risk Game)

KU’s first opportunity to cut into Mizzou’s “venues already won in” advantage. Now if Royce White will just cooperate by getting into foul trouble and playing only 27 minutes

           Oklahoma St at A&M***: (3:00p.m.—Big 12 Network) (Projected W: A&M)

Okie St’s opportunity to validate its W over Mizzou.
 
Oklahoma at K-State***: (6:00p.m.—Fox Sports) (Projected W: K-State)

Lonnie tries to go Home again.

 –Mark
           

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WEEKEND RECAP

Nick Wright, a sports talk guy in Kansas City, tweeted, in connectio with the Mizzou/Baylor game: “Is Baylor overrated? At 3, sure they are. But they’re legit top 10 team. And #Mizzou is spanking them in their building.”

Not living in K.C., I don’t get much of a chance to listen to Mr. Wright, but I hope his forte is football, because Baylor is not a legit top 10 team. Emphasis on “team.”

Yes, they have Top 10 talent. Maybe Top 3 talent along with Kentucky and North Carolina. Almost certainly Top 5.

But the Bears are not a legit Top 10 “team,” because they are not well coached. Which is part of what makes a team. Well, no more than an AAU team.

Okay, that’s unfair. Scott Drew is better than an AAU coach. He is to basketball what Turner Gill is to football.

Well, okay, that’s unfair, too. Scott is not the worst coach in the history of major college basketball.

But he is not a good coach by any means. He is not a developer of talent. He is not a builder of teams. His team is deficient in three areas (at least) attributable in part to coaching:

1. Defense;
2. Rebounding; and
3. Competing.

Saturday,afternoon, Baylor, vastly superior in size and athleticism, was dominated on the boards to the tune of 21-11. It was so bad that the official scorer could have reasonably recorded ever Mizzou missed shot as an assist.

If Mr. Wright intended to say that Baylor is a Top 10 team in the Big 12, he’s got a point. Or in the Top 10 of bad defenses. Or the Top 10 of overrated teams. But not Top 10 in this country.

At least not in late January 2012. Not until they learn to play hard-nosed Defense, instead of just reacting (generally too late) to what their opponents are doing. And learn to box out.

But who is going to teach them these skills? Dave Bliss is not walking through that door. Bobby Knight is not walking through that door. Kim Mulkey is not walking through that door.

Oh, wait. She is.

In short, this is not the great team it has been portrayed to be because of its talent and 17-0 start to the season. KU’s rout of the Bears in Lawrence and Mizzou’s victory in Waco should be assessed accordingly.

Nevertheless, Mizzou’s win in Waco was huge in the REAL Standings. It moved them to the Top of the REAL Standings.

This is precisely the function of the REAL Standings. To look past the records in the newspaper and take into account the difficulty of each team’s remaining schedule.

KU has a one game lead over Mizzou in the newspaper standings, because Mizzou lost a game that KU has not yet played (K-State in Manhattan). However, Mizzou has two significant W’s that KU still has to attempt to grind out (at Iowa St and at Baylor), while the Jayhawks have but one important victory at a venue yet to be visited by Mizzou (UT in Austin).

In sum, Mizzou has a ½ game edge in the REAL Standings because:

○ Although having a loss, it has only one remaining projected Loss (at KU) and one at-risk game (at UT) remaining on its schedule; while
○ KU has two remaining projected losses (at Mizzou and at Baylor, and two at-risk games (at ISU and at K-State)

Had the Jayhawks not eked out a victory themselves in Austin, this would have been one of the most meaningful days in Big 12 basketball history. Not only would Mizzou have put the onus on the Hawks to win in Waco, but would have had a virtual free pass in Austin. The Big 12 Title would have been Mizzou’s to lose in its final attempt to claim a championship in any sport that matters.

But it didn’t happen any other way than in victory for both teams. As they say in golf, “It’s not how, it’s how many.”

How many is that Mizzou has one loss and two lose-able games remaining, while KU has no losses and four loseable games remaining, As a result, the two ancient legendary rivals have earned an early degree of separation from the rest of the field.

Not to say that the game can’t or won’t be decided by a loss at Oklahoma or Okie St (or even A&M), or by one at Home. But that’s not what is expected of your ultimate Big 12 champ. Nor is it the way to bet.

Only one game Saturday did not contain REAL Standings significance: A&M’s Home Court victory, as projected, over Oklahoma. K-State picked up ground by winning its at-risk game at Okie St, as did Iowa St by beating lowly Tech handily in Lubbock.

THE TIERS

One third of the way into the season, every team in the Big 12 has established its competitive level, subject to change as the season progresses.

The most likely teams to make substantial improvement are Iowa St (which makes Mizzou’s early win in Ames particularly noteworthy) and Texas (good for KU for the same reason), because of the number of newcomers on those teams who are starting to hit their stride and fully gel with their teammates.

The highest ceiling, despite my comments above, still belongs to Baylor, because of their sheer size, athleticism, and shooting prowess. I have seen teams come together in spite of their coaches once they get tired enough of losing. Not a REAL likely development considering Baylor’s lack of upper class leadership, but possible.

The other team that appears to yet have room to grow—and with their schedule, they will need it—is KU. The Jayhawks start four juniors and a senior, but only one started regularly prior to this season (Taylor), and only two played serious minutes with games on the line (Taylor and Robinson). More importantly, all five starters are still learning to recognize and make the smart play all the time.

With six down and twelve to go, here are the tiers the teams have played themselves into:

Tier 1: Baylor, KU, Mizzou

Tier 2: Iowa St, K-State, Texas

Tier 3: Oklahoma, Okie St, Texas A&M

Tier 4: Texas Tech

REAL BIG 12 STANDINGS

1-22-12

1. 15.5-2.5

Mizzou (5-1) Projected L’s: at KU
At Risk games: at UT

2. 15-3

KU (6-0) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at Baylor
At Risk games: at ISU, at K-State

3. 14-4

Baylor (4-2) Projected L’s: at Mizzou
At Risk games: at UT, at ISU

4. 10-8

K-State (3-3) Projected L’s: at ISU, at Texas, at Baylor, at Mizzou
At Risk games: vs. KU, at A&M

Iowa St (4-2) Projected L’s: at Texas, at Baylor, at K-State, at Mizzou
At Risk games: vs. KU, at OU, at Okie St, vs. Baylor

6. 9.5-8.5

Texas (2-4) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at KU
At Risk games: vs. Mizzou, at A&M, at OU, at Okie St, vs. Baylor

7. 5.5-12.5

Oklahoma (2-4) Projected L’s: vs. Baylor, at K-State, at
KU, vs. Mizzou, at ISU, at Baylor, at Texas
At Risk games: vs. ISU, at Tech, vs. Texas

8. 4.5-13.5

Okie St (2-4) Projected L’s: vs. Mizzou, at A&M, vs. Baylor, at KU,
at Mizzou, at OU, vs. KU, at K-State
At Risk games: vs. ISU, at Tech, vs. Texas

Texas A&M (2-4) Projected L’s: at KU, vs. Baylor, at K-State, at ISU, vs.
Mizzou, vs. KU, at Okie St, at OU
At Risk games: vs. UT, at Tech, vs. K-State

10 1.5-16.5

Texas Tech (0-6). Projected L’s: vs. K- State, at Mizzou, at Texas,
at K-State, at KU, at ISU, vs. Texas, at Baylor, vs. Mizzou
At Risk games: vs. Okie St, vs. OU, vs. A&M

ON THE TUBE

MONDAY

A&M at KU*1/2: (8:00p.m.—ESPN) (Projected W: KU)

Before the season, this looked like it would be more than a schedule filler.

TUESDAY

Baylor at OU***: (7:00p.m.—Big 12 Network) (Projected W: Baylor)

Not the ideal way to try to end a losing streak—Tech at Home would be better—but it’s what’s on the schedule. And it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Kruger could out-coach Drew badly enough at Home to make things uncomfortable for Baylor. If that happens, we have a two team race.

Iowa St at Texas****: (8:00p.m.—Long Freakin’ Horn Nework) (Projected W: Texas)

UT will be desperate coming off three consecutive losses. ISU has had an easy time of it thus far in the Lone Star State. Should be the most entertaining and interesting game of the Midweek Slate. But will it be enough to keep UT’s fans in the arena for forty minutes—unlike Saturday when they were filing out with 8.8.seconds remaining in a two point game with Thomas Robinson at the line?

WEDNESDAY

Mizzou at Okie St**: (6:30p.m.—ESPN2) (Projected W: Mizzou)

This is a “just in case” game—as in watch it just in case Mizzou decides to try winning just by showing up, or just in case Okie St does a complete 180 and plays as well Wednesday night as it played poorly Saturday.

K-State at Texas Tech**: (8:00p.m.—ESPNU) (Projected W: K-State)

Tom Penders tweeted recently that Tech has no Big 12 players. I wouldn’t go that far, and I think they will beat someone in Lubbock, but Lord have mercy on whoever it is. Did I mention that Baylor was lucky to get out of Tech alive?

–Mark

MIDWEEK RECAP

It is not that KU’s stomp of Baylor Monday night changed anything: it was a projected W, meaning that neither the Jayhawks nor the Fighting Calipari-Lites gained any ground in the REAL Standings–or lost any. Baylor, in fact, retains its half game edge over the Hawks and Mizzou. The importance of the game was that the status quo was not disturbed—as it would have been had Baylor walked out of Allen Fieldhouse still undefeated.

A Baylor W would have placed everyone else in the conference in dire straits. A win in Lawrence, and where do they lose? At least often enough to allow KU, Mizzou, or anyone else back into the race? With W’s in both Manhattan and Lawrence, the rest of the conference race would have approached being a foregone conclusion.

As it is, barring unlikely events, Baylor gets its chance to negate Monday’s loss on February 8, when it hosts the Jayhawks in Waco. One word of advice to the Bears, however: Defense. Look into it if you want a REAListic chance of avoiding the patented Jayhawk Sweep.

In a game between the teams ranked 21 and 26 by KenPom, K-state tried desperately to give Texas a post-holiday in Manhattan by missing six free throws in the final minute of a close game. Somehow, Texas avoided unwrapping that present and left Manhattan with its customary loss. It was even suggested in Tweetdom that, at this point, “K-State could beat Texas in a competition of who has the better Longhorn mascot.”

Both teams appeared ready, subjectively, for a demotion form the lofty heights of Tier One, to the less prestigious residence in Bubbledom. However, I will wait until the the third-way point of the season on Saturday before reassessing their quality. Especially since UT has done nothing objectively yet to justify its removal from Tier One. Losses at K-State and Mizzou–even Iowa St–are not necessarily fatal to a championship run. (Although relying too much on freshmen and not having a legitimate big man might be.)

In games which involved minimal sound and fury and also signified nothing, Mizzou defeated A&M in Columbia, and OU squeezed by Tech in Norman, both as projected. In a contest that contained a level of excitement, Hilton worked its magic as Iowa St erased a 66-60 deficit in the final two minutes to escape Okie St 71-68–as projected..

In short, zero change in the REAL Standings

THE TIERS

Pending Saturday’s games:

Tier 1: Baylor, KU, K-State, Mizzou, Texas

Tier 2: Iowa St, Oklahoma, Okie St, Texas A&M

Tier 3: Texas Tech

REAL BIG 12 STANDINGS

1-19-12

1. 13-5

Baylor (4-1) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at Texas
At Risk games: at OU, at A&M, at Okie St, at ISU

2. 12.5-5.5

KU (5-0) Projected L’s: at UT, at Mizzou, at Baylor, at K-State
At Risk games: at ISU, at A&M, at Okie St

Mizzou (4-1) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at Texas, at KU
At Risk games: at Okie St, at OU, at A&M

4. 11.5-6.5

Texas (2-3) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at KU
At Risk games: at A&M, at OU, at Okie St

5. 10.5-7.5

K-State (2-3) Projected L’s: at Texas, at Baylor, at Mizzou
At Risk games: at Okie St, at ISU, at A&M

6. 8-10

Iowa St (3-2) Projected L’s: at Texas, at OU, at Okie St,
at Baylor, at K-State, at Mizzou

At Risk games: at Tech, vs. KU, vs. K-State, vs.
Baylor

7. 7-11

Okie St (2-3) Projected L’s: at A&M, at KU,
at Mizzou, at OU, at K-State

At Risk games: vs. K-State, vs. Mizzou, at Tech, vs.
Baylor, vs. Texas, vs. KU

Oklahoma (2-3) Projected L’s: at A&M, at K-State, at
KU, at ISU, at Baylor, at Texas

At Risk games: vs. Baylor, vs. Mizzou,
at Tech, vs. Texas

9. 6-12

Texas A&M (1-4) Projected L’s: at KU, at K-
State, at ISU, at Okie St, at OU

At Risk games: vs.Baylor, vs. Texas, at Tech, vs. Mizzou,
vs. KU, vs. K-State

10 2-16

Texas Tech (0-5). Projected L’s: vs. K- State,
at Mizzou, at Texas, at K-State, at KU, at ISU, vs.
Texas, at Baylor, vs. Mizzou

At Risk games: vs. ISU, vs. Okie St, vs. OU, vs. A&M

ON THE TUBE

SATURDAY

K-State at Okie St**: (12:30p.m.—Big 12 Network) (At-Risk Game)
K-State has played three bad games in a row since taking out Mizzou at Home. They can’t afford another one. Going 0-2 in Oklahoma is not OK.

Mizzou at Baylor*****: (1:00p.m.—ESPN) (Projected W: Baylor)
Baylor assumes the position KU was in on Monday. Nothing to gain. Everything to lose. You would think that, with Baylor’s length, athleticism, and motivation, this would be a relatively easy game at Home. Not necessarily, if they give Mizzou’s offense as much space as they gave KU Monday. Still, one game where KU fans should pull for Scott Drew. A Mizzou win puts them in control of the REAL Standings and the conference race.

Oklahoma at A&M**: (3:00p.m.—Big 12 Network) (Projected W: A&M)
With all the talk about the strength of the Big 12 at the top, and even the middle, the fact that there are 2-4 teams that suck (depending on your personal definition of “suck”) is frequently overlooked.

KU at Texas****: (3:00p.m.—CBS) (Projected W: Texas)
UT”S opportunity to come of age and inject itself into the Big 12 race. If the Jayhawks come out flat, thinking they accomplished more than they did Monday, they could find themselves with a loss that will be difficult to make up.

Iowa St at Texas Tech***: (4:00p.m.—ESPN2) (At-risk game)
Tech is going to beat somebody in Lubbock. Iowa ST is the better team, but not so much better that it can just show up and count this one as a W.

–Mark

We are big technologists here at the Phog Blog, and using our awesome lip reading skills, plus NSA level recording devices concealed in secret locations throughout the Phog, we were able to pick up an under-the-breath comment from Scott Drew after shaking Bill Self’s hand. We’ve created a pictorial overview in lieu of the actual recording: