Using Pomeroy's Predictor to Project a Bracket

This is my first post, so I'll try not to embarass myself.

Last night David sent me a file that can be used to predict games using Ken Pomeroy's ratings. Using this Excel spreadsheet, you can predict the winner of each game, the score, and % of the time that either team will win. There are various uses for this, obviously. What I have done is take Joe Lunardi's current projected bracket (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology) and figure out what percentage of the time each team will advance to each round. As this is fairly time consuming, I have only done the West region (where Kansas currently resides). Here's what I came up with:

Advances to 2nd Rd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final Four

Wisconsin 98.7% 71.2% 51.6% 22.9%

Central Connecticut 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Jackson St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Kansas 98.9% 75.5% 52.0% 37.%

East Tennessee St. 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Georgetown 94.1% 79.6% 34.4% 21.0%

Pennsylvania 5.9% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Air Force 94.7% 56.3% 20.2% 5.3%

Vermont 5.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%

Virginia Tech 75.8% 37.2% 12.3% 2.9%

Santa Clara 24.2% 6.0% 1.1% 0.0%

Virginia 62.8% 13.4% 2.0% 0.5%

Winthrop 37.2% 5.4% 0.5% 0.1%

Southern California 30.6% 4.7% 1.4% 0.5%

Michigan St. 69.4% 19.8% 9.5% 4.9%

Notre Dame 67.6% 22.3% 12.4% 3.5%

Tennessee 32.4% 6.3% 2.1% 0.3%

Obviously, a lot of this depends on the draw, but Kansas will be the favorite to advance in just about any draw they have, as they are #2 in Pomeroy's ratings. What I found interesting was Wisconsin and Kansas reach the Elite 8 almost the exact same percentage of the time, although Kansas is clearly superior when they play head to head. This is a byproduct of Kansas having both Georgetown (Pomeroy #7) and Michigan St. (Pomeroy #11) in their half of the bracket. I would expect that in an average bracket, Kansas would have a greater chance of reaching the Elite 8, but if they were paired with a stronger #1 seed, their chances of winning their Regional Final game would decrease.

I'll probably do another one of these with a future Lunardi bracket, and compare the two.

Let's talk Lineups

Here's my opening day prediction: Kaun Wright Rush Robinson Chalmers

I think it will actually stay that way unless DA really asserts himself down low. He's probably more gifted than our other bigs, but with Wright in the lineup, I'm not sure we can afford to have his willowy frame in there. If we did, however, we'd be sickly athletic.

I think Collins will be hard to keep out of the game and I would expect to see him getting 15-20 minutes (spelling Robinson and Chalmers).

This team will be stacked, though, and stupidly talented. And please, no more quips about the first round of the tournament. This will be KU hoops Golden Age, so enjoy it.

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