Ken Pomeroy on the Oakland Bracket.

Friend of Phog Blog Ken Pomeroy breaks down the Bracket today, using his efficiency numbers, and I think Jayhawks will be pleased:

Seed Team         Round 2 Round 3 Regionals Semis  Finals Champion
  4  Kansas        78.93%  54.37%   38.45%  25.92% 14.72%   9.01%
  2  UCLA          95.39%  70.86%   53.75%  29.49% 14.80%   8.09%
  5  Pitt          81.35%  34.47%   19.87%  10.81%  4.64%   2.19%
  1  Memphis       86.40%  52.89%   22.30%  11.60%  4.70%   2.10%
  8  Arkansas      72.27%  36.08%   13.45%   6.32%  2.26%   0.90%
 11  San Diego St. 55.81%  34.29%   12.35%   4.17%  1.25%   0.42%
  7  Marquette     62.35%  19.94%   11.30%   3.88%  1.18%   0.40%
  6  Indiana       44.19%  24.66%    7.68%   2.23%  0.57%   0.16%
  3  Gonzaga       56.26%  24.58%    7.06%   1.88%  0.44%   0.11%
 13  Bradley       21.07%   8.23%    3.31%   1.25%  0.34%   0.10%
 10  Alabama       37.65%   8.61%    3.81%   0.93%  0.20%   0.05%
 14  Xavier        43.74%  16.47%    3.97%   0.88%  0.17%   0.04%
  9  Bucknell      27.73%   8.15%    1.58%   0.42%  0.08%   0.02%
 12  Kent State    18.65%   2.93%    0.73%   0.17%  0.03%   0.00%
 16  Oral Roberts  13.60%   2.88%    0.32%   0.05%  0.01%   0.00%
 15  Belmont        4.61%   0.58%    0.08%   0.00%  0.00%   0.00%

The most interesting thing about these numbers to me is that we're not the most likely Final Four team in this bracket, but that we are the most likely Champion. That says a lot about the difficultly of our draw.

However, the good thing about our draw is that - to wax Physics 102 - it's big on amplitude, but not on frequency. By this I mean that our draw is steadily difficult, that it doesn't contain a single shrill note of window cracking difficulty. According to Ken, we should be favored all the way to the Final Four. And that's not such a bad thing.

Still plenty of time to throw down your picks at the Phog Blog Pickem

Reminder on how to win that bracket...

Once again, I repeat: You could go on gut instinct, and lose, or spend hours and hours poring over endless statistics.

Or if you're smart, you could spend a few bucks to have access to the same proprietary tools that Vegas uses to pick games. I know I'll be using the BracketBrains tool this year, and I recommend you do the same. Click on the banner below to check it out, but I'm pretty sure you'll be as impressed as I am, and if you end up signing up, a little bit of dough will go to keeping the Phog Blog's server's running.

Liveblogging the brackets

Minneapolis Bracket 1 'Nova 2 Ohio State 3 Florida - a UF/OSU game could be fun 4 Boston College - a little underseeded. 5 Nevada 6 Oklahoma 7 Georgetown 8 Arizona 9 Wisconsin 10 Northern Iowa (4th MVC team) 11 UW-Milwaukee 12 Montana 13 Pacific 14 South Alabama 15 Davidson - This is a tough 15 seed. 16

5:29

Washington Bracket

1 UConn 2 Tennessee - Worst seeding error yet. 3 UNC - About where I thought. 4 Illinois - about right. 5 Washington - They're pretty hot, or maybe they play in the Pac 10 6 Michigan State - a tough 6 seed. 7 Wichita State - Congrats Turg. 8 Kentucky 9 UAB - Another matchup here? Iwonder if UAB can repeat? 10 Seton Hall - they made it 11 George Mason - could be a good upset pickup 12 Utah State 13 Air Force 14 Murray State 15 Winthrop 16 Albany

5:18

Oakland

1 Memphis 2 UCLA 3 Gonzaga 4 Kansas (Yah. We got a 4 seed, but Pitt will be tough) 5 Pittsburgh (lower than I would have thought) 6 Indiana (What in the heck?) 7 Marquette 8 Arkansas 9 Bucknell 10 Alabama 11 San Diego State 12 Kent sTate 13 Bradley (This is a pretty tough first round matchup, at least according to the RPI 14 Xavier 15 Belmont 16 Oral Roberts

Thoughts: Good to know we got a 4, but bad to know it's against Pittsburgh. Seth Davis is an idiot. I wish it weren't true, but the guy spouts nonsense half the time, and the rest is lies.

5:10

Atlanta Bracket

1 Duke 2 Texas 3 Iowa (I guess they watch the championship) 4 LSU 5 Syracuse (What the heck?) 6 West Virginia 7 California (higher than I would have thought 8 George Washington (wow, the 6th ranked tem gets an 8 seed) 9 UNC-Wilmington 10 NC State (this is low) 11 So. Illinois 12 Texas A&M (Syracuse goes down) 13 Iona 14 Northwestern State 15 Penn 16 Southern

Thoughts

GW got punked here. I thought they'd be a 5-6. Syracuse is overseeded. The 7-10 will be a good one.

5:03:

1 Seeds:

Memphis, Duke, UConn, Villanova - No surprises there. I don't think Duke will make the Final Four. They just depend on JJ too heavily. So all this talk of number 1 overall seed is moot.

KU's Seeding: Teams to Watch

Chalmersfan's comment earlier got me thinking about KU's seed. I've heard no definitive answer regarding whether or not KU can end up in Dallas (or Dayton), because I get wrapped up in the legal mumbo jumbo of the NCAA's guidelines. But it occurred to me that there are a number of teams in competition with KU for seeds, and I thought I'd look into them. Feel free to add/subtract or modify in the comments. Or if you're clever, guess my password (I don't even know it anymore) and change my words.

Without further ado (the more stars, the better the chance, see):

UCLA** - probably better seed than KU

Pitt*** - could drop to below KU if they lose tonight to WVU badly today.

UF**** - after losing 3/4, teetering on the edge. They played well against UK last week though.

Tenn* - Could be a 2-4 seed, I think, depending on the outcome of the SEC tournament.

Boston College** - Lunardi has them as a 5. They don't deserve their ranking.

GW*** - they could plummet to a 5 or 6 after flaming out today v. Temple.

WVU**** - my gut tells me they'll get a 4 is a foolish sack of tissue, but they've been slumping, a lot.

Iowa*** - Lunardi has them as a 4. Don't understand this.

Illinois* - Not very likely at all, but Illinois is not playing great basketball right now.

Gonzaga* - pretty unlikely, but they're not improving, and their recent play shows it. Washington**** - Washington's climbing, they'll need to get upset by somebody in the Pac10 Tourney Thanks to PB reader Josh for letting us know that Washington got Carmelo-ized byt Malik Hairston and the Ducks.

UNC* - Very unlikely at this point. UNC is playing top 10 ball over the last 5 games. Memphis* - If they get blown out early in the CUSA tournament, they could fall, but KU would need to win B12 tournament.

The bottom line is that KU has and outside chance for a 3 seed. I think they're a 5 if they win one game, a 4 if they win 2, and a 3 if they win 3. Best case - Memphis loses early and big, KU wins B12 tournament, and KU slides into a 3 seed in Dallas.

Most likely scenario: KU wins on Friday and Saturday and gets the lowest 4, and plays in Salt Lake City and uses run-on sentences in their post game interview and doesn't care.

How to win your 2006 NCAA Tournament Bracket Pool

You could go on gut instinct, and lose, or spend hours and hours poring over endless statistics. Or if you're smart, you could spend a few bucks to have access to the same proprietary tools that Vegas uses to pick games. I know I'll be using the BracketBrains tool this year, and I recommend you do the same. Click on the banner below to check it out, but I'm pretty sure you'll be as impressed as I am.

Projecting the 2006 NCAA Basketball Tournament Field...

Most of the bracket predictions out there are pretty lame. Most have Boston College and KU as 6-7 seeds, which, in my opinion, is bad, bad math. The tournament is less than a month away now, and I think it's time to start making actual predictions about what seed teams will end up with. This seems to me to be a better use of time than "if the season ended today" predictions. The season doesn't end today. This is a predictive bracket. I encourage your feedback. I admit I'm mailing it in for the 13-16 seeds.

The First Phog Blog Bracket (2/20/06):

1 Seeds: Duke, UConn, Villanova, Memphis

2 Seeds: Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Texas (-), Ohio State

3 Seeds: Boston College, Florida, Tennessee, Iowa

4 Seeds: Kansas, Illinois, West Virginia, GW

5 Seeds UCLA, North Carolina State, Michigan State, Georgetown

6 Seeds LSU, Oklahoma, UNC, George Mason

7 Seeds Northern Iowa, Wisconsin, Bucknell, Washington

8 Seeds Cal, Nevada, Marquette, Alabama

9 Seeds Creighton, So. Illinois, Seton Hall, Wichita St

10 Seeds Arizona, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri State

11 Seeds UAB, Air Force, Syracuse, Colorado

12 Seeds W. Kentucky, San Diego State, UW-Milwaukee, NC-Wilmington

13 Seeds Northwestern State, Montana, Akron, Iona

14 Seeds Winthrop, Murray State, Penn, Pacific

15 Seeds FDU, Belmont, IUPUI, Northern Arizona

16 Seeds Georgia Southern, Albany, Delaware State, Play-in

I've got a feeling this thing has more holes in it than a horse-trader's mule, or will have come Selection Sunday, but hey, there's only so much you can do.

-->