Using Pomeroy's Predictor to Project a Bracket

This is my first post, so I'll try not to embarass myself.

Last night David sent me a file that can be used to predict games using Ken Pomeroy's ratings. Using this Excel spreadsheet, you can predict the winner of each game, the score, and % of the time that either team will win. There are various uses for this, obviously. What I have done is take Joe Lunardi's current projected bracket (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology) and figure out what percentage of the time each team will advance to each round. As this is fairly time consuming, I have only done the West region (where Kansas currently resides). Here's what I came up with:

Advances to 2nd Rd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final Four

Wisconsin 98.7% 71.2% 51.6% 22.9%

Central Connecticut 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Jackson St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Kansas 98.9% 75.5% 52.0% 37.%

East Tennessee St. 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Georgetown 94.1% 79.6% 34.4% 21.0%

Pennsylvania 5.9% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Air Force 94.7% 56.3% 20.2% 5.3%

Vermont 5.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%

Virginia Tech 75.8% 37.2% 12.3% 2.9%

Santa Clara 24.2% 6.0% 1.1% 0.0%

Virginia 62.8% 13.4% 2.0% 0.5%

Winthrop 37.2% 5.4% 0.5% 0.1%

Southern California 30.6% 4.7% 1.4% 0.5%

Michigan St. 69.4% 19.8% 9.5% 4.9%

Notre Dame 67.6% 22.3% 12.4% 3.5%

Tennessee 32.4% 6.3% 2.1% 0.3%

Obviously, a lot of this depends on the draw, but Kansas will be the favorite to advance in just about any draw they have, as they are #2 in Pomeroy's ratings. What I found interesting was Wisconsin and Kansas reach the Elite 8 almost the exact same percentage of the time, although Kansas is clearly superior when they play head to head. This is a byproduct of Kansas having both Georgetown (Pomeroy #7) and Michigan St. (Pomeroy #11) in their half of the bracket. I would expect that in an average bracket, Kansas would have a greater chance of reaching the Elite 8, but if they were paired with a stronger #1 seed, their chances of winning their Regional Final game would decrease.

I'll probably do another one of these with a future Lunardi bracket, and compare the two.

Phog Blog record prediction contest (free t shirt, yo)

Ken Pomeroy predicts just one actual loss for the Hawks between now and the Big 12 Tournament - at Nebraska. That projection will surely change over time. Overall, he projects that KU will be 27-3 (due to risk adusting an additional loss in there non-specificallly) going into the post-season. I don't think we'll lose at Nebraska, for what it's worth, and I don't think we'll lose to A&M at home. I do think, however that we'll lose one or two more weirdo games that I'm not seeing so clearly yet.

Speaking of record projections, I never made one. Here it is, Jeremy's official Phog Blog Prediction: 36-3

Doing that would break the record for all time wins in a season by KU and we'd have to get to the championship game to get there. Whether we will win or not...too hazy.

Speaking of projections, drop your projection in the comments and the person who ends up closest wins a Phog Blog t shirt. In the case of a tie, we'll rig up some elaborate scheme by which the shirt can be transferred daily between the respective winners. Actually, I have more than one t shirt to give .

NOTE: I always pick optimistically. Since KU basketball doesn't really matter, there's no harm in it. Pick away.

Washburn Predictions / Big 12 Preview

Not a ton to say about the Washburn game really, except that I'm excited about the prospect of seeing our boys out there and tearing up my mom's friend Bob Chipman's team.

My prediction:

KU: 87

WU 53

Anyone care to challenge me? 

And if you have a few minutes to burn today, check out Bracketography's Big 12 preview. 

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CBS Big 12 Preview

Gary Parrish takes a look at the Big 12 basketball season and not surprisingly, KU comes out on top. Way on top. KU's schedule in the Big 12 is, on paper, about as easy as it could be, with the top teams from the South all visiting Allen and the North still mired in coaching change mud. Indeed, as soon as Nebraska finds a new coach, Bill Self will have the most tenure of any coach in the North if I'm not mistaken.

Back to Parrish, you should definitely check out the whole article, but here's the concentrated essence of what he says:

There are three teams in the nation that, heading into the season, appear to be a level above everybody else. Kansas is one, with the others being Florida and North Carolina. So any Jayhawks fans worried about a third consecutive loss in the first round of the NCAA Tournament need not worry. This team will be playing deep into March, and perhaps into April.

KU will likely be favored by 5 or more in every big 12 game this year. I think the toughest game will be in Manhattan for some reason. If Huggs knows one thing, it's that he has to stop the multi decade streak and win one for the first time in Bramlage.

Rivals.com Article on KU

For those of you looking for a break from recruiting speculation, Shay Wildeboor has a pretty even-handed take on KU's chances next season. I thought his analysis was, while not jaw-dropping, eye-opening. He also refrains from including the phrase "Darrell Arthur" in the body of his article, which earns him extra points. Also interesting is his passing comment on incoming recruit Brady Morningstar:

"Sherron Collins, one of the top point guards in the class of 2006 and Brady Morningstar, a three-star prospect, are scheduled to arrive on campus in June. While nobody knows what to expect from Morningstar, the son of Roger Morningstar, the same cannot be said about Collins."

Does anyone (besides Self's coaching staff) have a good read on Morningstar at this point? I'm definitely curious.

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