Kansas is going through the meat of its conference schedule right now,but so far hasn't responded very well. Last week's close game in Lubbock was expected to be just that, and this week's contest in Norman is a case of deja vu all over again.
Sagarin is favoring Oklahoma by 0.9 points, but Kansas does have a 47 percent chance of winning the game. Performance doesn't help matters any for the Jayhawks, because Oklahoma is underrated by 2.3 points, while Kansas is underrated by only 1.6 points, so the margin adjusted for performance favors Oklahoma by 1.6 points.
Pomeroy's ratings are 63.37 for Kansas and 64.54 for Oklahoma after adjsutment for the home court advantage, thus predicting a 1 point victory for Oklahoma.
Dolphin is predicting a final score of 69 to 66 in favor of Oklahoma, with Kansas having only a 41.5 percent chance of winning.
There are nine common opponents, all in the Big XII conference. The only conference opponent not represented in the comparison is Oklahoma State.
KU +15 CU on road (+19 neutral court) KU +29 CU at home (+25 neutral court) OU +30 CU at home (+26 neutral court) KU vs. OU - 4 neutral court (- 8 on road)
KU +20 BU on road (+24 neutral court) OU + 4 BU on road (+ 8 neutral court) KU vs. OU +16 neutral court (+12 on road)
KU + 5 aTm at home (+ 1 neutral court) OU +16 aTm on road (+20 neutral court) OU + 4 aTm at home ( 0 neutral court) KU vs. OU - 9 neutral court (-13 on road)
KU +25 UT at home (+21 neutral court) OU + 4 UT at home ( 0 neutral court) KU vs. OU +21 neutral court (+17 on road)
KU + 5 ISU on road (+ 9 neutral court) KU - 2 ISU at home (- 6 neutral court) OU - 8 ISU on road (- 4 neutral court) KU vs. OU +5.5 neutral court (+1.5 on road)
KU - 1 TT on road (+ 3 neutral court) OU - 7 TT at home (-11 neutral court) KU vs. OU +14 neutral court (+10 on road)
KU +12 MU at home (+ 8 neutral court) OU - 3 MU on road (+ 1 neutral court) KU vs. OU + 7 neutral court (+ 3 on road)
KU + 2 NU at home (- 2 neutral court) KU +13 NU on road (+17 neutral court) OU +23 NU at home (+19 neutral court) KU vs. OU -11.5 neutral court (-15.5 on road)
KU + 9 KSU on road (+13 neutral court) OU + 1 KSU on road (+ 5 neutral court) KU vs. OU + 8 neutral court (+ 4 on road)
Six of the comparisons favor Kansas, while three favor Oklahoma. The average favors Kansas by 1.2 points, but the standard deviation is 11.3 points. The most favorable comparison for Kansas is Texas, but Tucker and Aldridge did not play. The least favorable comparison is Nebraska.
One source of uncertainty is whether Moody will play or not. As of Saturday, he was listed as doubtful.
As has been noted previously, Kansas did the Saturday-Monday thing three times last season and lost all three road games, but they also won all three home games. Last week the pattern held with the home victory over Colorado and the loss at Texas Tech. The pattern was broken this past weekend with the home loss to Iowa State. Having just one day off between games should not be too big a factor, especially for a team of NCAA Tournament caliber, given that the Tournament is run with just one day off between pairs of game. Oklahoma is in the same situation, and had to travel from Manhattan on Saturday.
======================== Sagarin =======================
Rate SoS Elo PP Perf Inc. Trend
==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==============
Kansas # 6 # 4 # 5 # 9 +1.6 12.1 -0.52 +/- 0.37
Oklahoma # 15 # 33 # 19 # 15 +2.3 10.1 -0.26 +/- 0.28
== Massey = = Pomeroy = === RPI === ====
Rate SoS Rate SoS Rate SOS Rec.
==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ====
Kansas # 5 # 5 # 7 # 6 # 1 # 1 20-3
Oklahoma # 16 # 24 # 20 # 29 # 20 # 32 19-6
======================= Dolphin ======================
Std. Med. Pre. IRPI RPI Pair Poll Sched
==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== =====
Kansas # 6 # 6 # 7 # 3 # 1 # 5 # 7 0.947
Oklahoma # 17 # 17 # 13 # 20 # 19 # 14 # 11 0.927
Here is Kansas' season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
==== ============================= ======= ====== ===== =====
HOME # 30 Vermont 68 61 +10.68 -3.68
HOME # 91 Saint Joseph's 91 51 +17.40 +22.60
HOME # 53 Nevada 85 52 +14.05 +18.95
HOME # 44 Pacific 81 70 +13.00 -2.00
HOME #100 TCU 93 74 +18.00 +1.00
HOME # 86 Louisiana-Lafayette 96 51 +16.85 +28.15
HOME # 40 South Carolina 64 60 +12.45 -8.45
HOME # 33 Wis.-Milwaukee 73 62 +11.19 -0.19
HOME # 14 Georgia Tech 70 68 +7.28 -5.28
HOME # 37 Texas A&M 65 60 +12.01 -7.01
AWAY # 6 Kentucky 65 59 -4.75 +10.75
AWAY # 50 Iowa State 71 66 +5.48 -0.48
AWAY #120 Colorado 76 61 +11.21 +3.79
HOME # 84 Nebraska 59 57 +16.65 -14.65
AWAY # 17 Villanova 62 83 -0.45 -20.55
AWAY #197 Baylor 86 66 +16.60 +3.40
HOME # 18 Texas 90 65 +7.80 +17.20
HOME # 93 Missouri 73 61 +17.59 -5.59
AWAY # 84 Nebraska 78 65 +8.41 +4.59
AWAY # 71 Kansas State 74 65 +7.89 +1.11
HOME #120 Colorado 89 60 +19.45 +9.55
AWAY # 16 Texas Tech 79 80 -0.62 -0.38
HOME # 50 Iowa State 61 63 +13.72 -15.72
AWAY # 15 Oklahoma -0.89 0.471
HOME # 3 Oklahoma State +1.44 0.547
HOME # 71 Kansas State +16.13 0.908
AWAY # 93 Missouri +9.35 0.780
The season projection has been bouncing back and forth between three and four cumulative losses for most of the season, and now it's back to four after the unexpected home loss to Iowa State. The probabilities call for one of the next two games being a loss.
Here is Oklahoma's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB. ==== ============================= ======= ====== ===== ===== HOME #111 CS Northridge 82 72 +15.81 -5.81 NEUT #189 High Point 93 65 +17.22 +10.78 NEUT # 11 Washington 91 96 -2.95 -2.05 NEUT # 42 Minnesota 67 54 +5.40 +7.60 HOME #250 Coppin State 67 44 +25.21 -2.21 AWAY #116 Purdue 66 48 +7.76 +10.24 HOME #293 Northern Colorado 80 44 +29.25 +6.75 NEUT # 2 Duke 67 78 -6.87 -4.13 HOME # 45 SMS(SW Missouri State) 61 53 +9.80 -1.80 NEUT #176 Tulsa 70 64 +15.87 -9.87 HOME #306 Florida A&M 104 45 +31.12 +27.88 HOME #276 Texas-Pan American 94 54 +27.40 +12.60 HOME #120 Colorado 85 55 +16.22 +13.78 HOME # 12 Connecticut 77 65 +3.66 +8.34 AWAY #197 Baylor 65 61 +13.37 -9.37 AWAY # 37 Texas A&M 70 54 +0.54 +15.46 HOME # 18 Texas 64 60 +4.57 -0.57 HOME # 3 Oklahoma State 67 57 -1.79 +11.79 AWAY # 50 Iowa State 66 74 +2.25 -10.25 HOME # 37 Texas A&M 69 65 +8.78 -4.78 HOME # 16 Texas Tech 81 88 +4.39 -11.39 AWAY # 3 Oklahoma State 67 79 -10.03 -1.97 AWAY # 93 Missouri 65 68 +6.12 -9.12 HOME # 84 Nebraska 83 60 +13.42 +9.58 AWAY # 71 Kansas State 69 68 +4.66 -3.66 HOME # 9 Kansas +0.89 0.535 HOME #197 Baylor +21.61 0.984 AWAY # 18 Texas -3.67 0.359 AWAY # 16 Texas Tech -3.85 0.352 Oklahoma has only one gimme left, but the probabilities call for two more losses. They finish with two tough road games.