Preview: Toledo vs. Kansas in Kansas City

Toledo has yet to play a home game. They beat Middle Tennesse State and VCU in the Virgin Islands. They lost to Iowa there, and have dropped true road games at Missouri State, Drexel, and Vanderbilt. Both teams play right at 69 possessions per game.

KANSAS OFFENSE v. TOLEDO DEFENSE

Team eFG% OR% TO% FT Rate FT% PPP
KU off 52.0 42.7 22.1 25.5 68.2 1.10
Tol def 54.3 32.4 25.5 48.1 63.8 1.01

Toledo's overall defensive numbers are flattered by their opponents' inability to make free throws despite ample opportunity to do so. A parade of Jayhawks going to the free throw line tomorrow may provide a much-needed boost to Kansas's offensive efficiency.

TOLEDO OFFENSE v. KANSAS DEFENSE

Team eFG% OR% TO% FT Rate FT% PPP
Tol off 51.3 28.7 25.4 20.0 67.7 0.95
KU def 43.3 31.1 27.5 34.0 69.1 0.85

Toledo's two best shooting performances have come in games that went to overtime which inflates their season field goal percentage a little bit. They shot the ball very well at Vanderbilt (62.9 eFG%) and against Middle Tennesse State (53.9 efg%) but shot 49 eFG% or worse in three of their games this year.

Kansas should be able to force lots of turnovers (maybe even enough to even things out from the football game earlier this year), grab the overwhelming majority of defensive rebounds, and may even have found an opponent they can keep off the free throw line.

Prediction: Kansas 77 Toledo 62

PLEASE SKIP THE PORTION OF THIS POST IN ITALICS IF YOU'RE OFFENDED BY SELF-PROMOTION.

Should anyone miss them, I promise updated team and player tempo-free stats early next week. I've been busy catching up on the Big 12 and around the country this week.

Thank you.

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