Here's a glossary of terms thrown around on Phog Blog: (Estimated) Team Possessions = FGA+(.44*FTA)+TO-OR
Effective Field Goal Perentage (eFG%) = (FGM+(0.5*3PTM))/FGA
Free Throw Rate (FT Rate) = (FTM*100)/FGA
Note: For teams, their opponents' FT Rate is calculated as (FTA*100)/FGA on the assumption that, over time, you have minimal control over how well your opponents shoot free throws.
Turnover Percentage (TO%) = TO/Possessions
Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%) = OR/(teamOR+oppDR)
Note: individual offensive rebounding percentage = player's OR/((teamOR+oppDR)*(player's MIN/(teamMIN/5)))
Defensive Rebounding Percentage (DR%) = DR/(teamDR+oppOR)
Note: individual defensive rebounding percentage = player's DR/((teamDR+oppOR)*(player's MIN/(teamMIN/5)))
SOME INDIVIDUAL STATS
PPWS (Points Per Weighted Shot) = PTS/(FGA+(.44*FTA)) Pts/100 = Points per 100 individual possessions A/100 = Assists per 100 individual possessions TO/100 = Turnovers per 100 individual possessions S/100 = Steals per 100 individual possessions BS/100 = Blocked Shots per 100 individual possessions
Note: individual possessions = (Min/(teamMin/5))*teamPossessions
TEAM EFFICIENCY STATS
Offensive Efficiency (OE) = the number of points a team scores per 100 possessions Defensive Efficiency (DE) = the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions
Efficiency ratings come in several flavors. If one of these words is used to describe an efficiency rating, it means the following:
Raw (OE or DE)= tells you what actually happened, without adjusting for the opponent or location Adjusted = adjusted based on opponent rating and location in order to indicate how many points a team would score or allow per 100 possessions against an exactly average opponent. There are two types of adjustments.
- Season (AOE or ADE) = Explained in depth here. Essentially, all the ratings for all the teams are adjusted so that predictions based on the ratings best match the actual results.
- Single game (AGOE or AGDE) = Takes the opponent ratings, location, and score from a single game and tells you the ratings of a hypothetical team that would have gotten the same result.
Pythagorean Rating (Pyth) = a rating that supposedly tells what a team's winning percentage would be over time against an average schedule. As always, a longer explanation is on Pomeroy's site. The formula is:
AOE^11.5 / (AOE^11.5 + ADE^11.5) ... AGOE and AGDE can be used in place of AOE and ADE
Predictions based on efficiency ratings all use the same formula, listed below. More explanation can be found here. The only difference between the various predictions is in what values are used for the offensive and defensive efficiencies.
[TeamA predicted offensive efficiency] = [TeamA offensive efficiency] x [TeamB defensive efficiency] / [National average efficiency]
Home field advantage is accounted for by multiplying the home offense and the visiting defense by 1.014, and dividing the home defense and the visiting offense by the same.
"Last 10" = uses the average of the two teams' last 10 Adjusted Game Efficieny ratings Trendline = A 2nd-order polynomial trendline is fit to the season-long graph of individual AGOE and AGDE ratings. The trendline's value as of the latest game is used in the equation. Streaks = This tries to take a middle ground between two "streak" predicitons. The last N AGOE and AGDE ratings are averaged, where N is between 5 and 10, with the value of N selected to maximize the home team's predicted margin of victory. Then the reverse is done, but N is selected to maximize the visiting team's margin of victory. The two predictions are then averaged.Recommended further reading for those interested is available from the invaluable Ken Pomeroy (some of these are the same links from above):
If any of the above is unclear or incomplete, please ask about it in the comments and we'll be glad to try and do better.