RECAP In the past, I have noted that the REAL Standings projections are not intended to be predictions, even though, at times, it seems uncanny how often the Projected Winner is, ultimately, the actual winner. In fact, so far this season, Projected Winners are undefeated at 8-0—not to mention12-0 if the REAL Standings principles are applied after the fact to the games of January 10.
As for those games in which no Projection has been made (the “toss-up” or “at-risk” games, where a higher level team plays a one tier lower team on the Road), the Home team is 2-2: OU winning at Tier 2 teams k-state and A&M; A&M taking down Baylor in College Station; and Iowa St, a Tier 3 team, taking advantage of that old Hilton Magic vs. Nebraska.
Because the RS projections are not based on a head-to-head assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of specific teams, but, instead, the teams’ general classification (as a Tier 1, 2, or 3 team) and where the game is being played, I would still hesitate to declare them predictive in nature—especially since the REALly useful prediction (i.e., point differential) is a non-factor. Nevertheless, for curiosity’s sake, I will keep track of the correlation between Projected Winners and actual winners the rest of the season.
As for Saturday’s action, again, there were no REAL surprises: As Projected, it was Nebraska over k-state, Baylor over Okie St, Mizzou over Iowa St (all at Home), and KU and UT over Tier 3 teams Colorado and Tech on the Road.
In the only game without a Projected Winner, OU took an early stranglehold on first place in the conference by taking out A&M—the Sooners’ second victory in two attempts over a Tier 2 team on the Road (k-state being the other).
REAL STANDINGS: 1/18/09
Contenders (Tier 1): Baylor, KU, OU, UT.
Competitors (Tier 2): A&M, k-state, Mizzou, Nebraska, Okie St,
Bottom-feeders (Tier 3): Colorado, Iowa St, Tech
OU (3-0) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at UT Losable games: at Okie St, at Mizzou
KU (2-0) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at OU Losable games: at NU, at Mizzou, at k-state
Baylor (2-1) Projected L’s: at OU, at UT Losable games: at k-state, at Mizzou, at Okie St
UT (2-1) Projected L’s: at Baylor, at KU Losable games: at NU, at A&M, at Okie St
NU (2-1) Projected L’s: at OU, at Mizzou, at KU, at k-state, at Baylor Losable games: vs. KU, at Tech, at CU, vs. UT
Mizzou (2-1) Projected L’s: at Okie St, at k-state, at UT, at KU, at A&M Losable games: vs. Baylor, at ISU, vs. KU, at CU, vs. OU
: OSU (1-1) Projected L’s: at NU, at A&M, at KU, at UT, at OU Losable games: vs. OU, at Tech, vs. Baylor, at CU, vs. UT
A&M (1-2) Projected L: at KU, at UT, at OU, at Baylor, at NU Losable games: vs. UT, at Tech, at CU
k-state (0-3) Projected L’s: at UT, at A&M, at Mizzou, at Okie St Losable games: vs. Baylor, at CU, vs. KU, at ISU
ISU (1-2) Projected L’s: vs. KU, at CU, vs. OU, at k-state, at Okie St, at KU, vs. Baylor, at A&M, at NU Losable games: vs. Mizzou, vs. k-state
CU (0-2) Projected L’s: at Tech, at KU, at OU, at ISU, vs. UT, at NU, at Baylor, at k-state Losable games: vs. k-state, vs. NU, vs. Mizzou, vs. Okie St, vs. A&M
Tech (0-2) Projected L’s: at Mizzou, at A&M, at Okie St, vs. Baylor, at k- state, at OU, at UT, vs. OU, vs. KU, at ISU Losable games: vs. NU, vs. Okie St, vs. A&M
FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE
Work Week Games, with IQ (Interest Quotient):
1. Texas A&M at KU (8:00p.m.)**** (Projected W: KU)
The Jayhawks have the second longest Home Court winning streak in the country at 34. Their last loss in AFH? To A&M. Of course, that team had Acey Law. Then again, that KU team had Julian Wright, Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, etc., and etc. In other words, two entirely different teams. The only key players from those teams are A&M’s Josh Carter and Donald Sloan, and, of course,the nation’s premier point guard, Sherron Collins. The young Jayhawks have played relatively well at Home. A&M has lost its only conference game on the Road. Still, the Hawks better come ready to play forty minutes. None of this allowing an eighteen point led to shrink to three or Mark Turgeon might not let his alma mater get away with it.
2. Colorado at Texas Tech (7:00p.m.)* (Projected W: Tech)
What a stinker. Watching this game means you are either one of the all time college basketball fanatics, or you have no life. Or both.
3. Mizzou at Okie St (8:00p.m.)*** (Projected W: Okie St)
Mizzou has taken out Tier 3 teams Colorado and Iowa St in impressive fashion at Home. Can they take their act on the Road? Against a decent team?
4. Nebraska at Oklahoma (8:00p.m.)** (Projected W: OU)
Unless OU falls asleep at the wheel, nothing to see here.
5. Baylor at k-state (8:00p.m.)**1/2 (Toss-up)
Have to admit that k-state has had the toughest startup schedule in the Big 12. This is their fourth straight game that has either been a Projected Loss or an at-risk game. We will see what Frank Martin can do with a desperate team.