I knew it was too good to last. Ten games into the season, and not a single REAL Standings Report discussing a Reid-iculous statement by one Reid Gettys. That is until Wednesday night. Mr. Gettys calling the Iowa St at Texas game. All is well for 39 minutes and 49 seconds of game time.
At that point, ISU has a three point lead. Texas has the ball out of bounds, with the length of the court to go for a potential tying three point basket.
Let me say for the umpteenth time that I like Reid. He was a major contributor on Phi Slamma Jamma, perhaps the best team to ever lose a national championship game. One of my favorite non-KU teams ever. And he’s a nice guy. At least his friends say so. And he’s a lawyer. That’s a winning trifecta, right there.
But he keeps saying Reid-iculous things that beg for attention.
Wednesday night, he began with the obligatory analysis concerning whether to foul intentionally with a three point lead in order to prevent the opponent from getting off a potential game tying shot. He related that is on the pro-foul side of that issue.
Okay. Fair enough. I disagree. I don’t like bringing losing in regulation into play when I have a three point lead, but I respect those with the opposing view. It is a strategy that can be argued both ways.
Iowa St takes Reid’s advice. But wait! They screw it up, which is one of the perils of fouling with the lead and allowing the opponent an opportunity to score with the clock stopped.
Yes, Iowa St fouls with 7.1 seconds remaining on the clock. This means that if UT makes both free throws, they are down but one point with time enough to try to steal the in-bounds pass and/or put Iowa St at the line with 5-6 seconds remaining—where a missed free throw gives UT plenty of time, down two points, to move the ball down court for a game tying basket or game winning three. And, if UT is trailing by only two points, ISU cannot afford to employ the fouling gambit, because doing so would put UT in position to tie the game at the line—or win in regulation with a made free throw, an unintentional miss, and a follow shot.
With two misses by ISU, UT would be down one point with plenty of time to win in regulation on a regular two point basket, whether it be a layup, tear drop, mid-range jumper, or tip in on a miss.
In other words, Iowa State’s fouling strategy worked entirely to UT’s advantage, giving them a reasonable shot at winning the game in regulation.
And what does Reid say? He declares that UT should make the first free throw and miss the second on purpose.
That’s not thinking like a lawyer, Reid. At least not like one whose fee is contingent on winning. Might be a good strategy if there are four seconds or less time on the clock. Might be the only strategy with three seconds, because it is extremely difficult, if you make both, to put the opponent at the line at the other end of the court, then take the ball the full length of the court to score in three seconds or less.
But five seconds is plenty of time for a decent ball handling team to move the ball down court and manufacture a decent shot—especially if you are down one point or two, don’t need a three, and the opponent cannot afford to foul. And 7.1 seconds?
Strike one, Reid.
Texas disregards Reid’s advice and plays it smart: making both free throws for a one point game.
With 7.1 seconds on the clock, UT has time to try for a steal of the in-bounds pass. They don’t succeed, but the fact that there was so much time remaining allows them to foul with 5.7 seconds on the clock. Plenty of time still left, no mater what ISU does at the line.
Iowa St, to its credit, makes both free throws. Back to a three point lead.
This time, the clock is wound down to the point where fouling makes more sense, because doing so will almost certainly be at around 3-4 seconds.
Except UT makes another smart play, throwing the in-bounds pass to mid court, where they immediately call a time out. They now have 5.6 seconds to find a good sshot with the ball already in the front court.
Papapetrou throws the ball in to Jonathan Holmes inside the three point line. Before Iowa State can foul him, Holmes tosses it back to Papapetrou. Before the Cyclones can react to foul him, he drains a three pointer. Overtime.
Not a peep from Reid about the failed strategy of fouling with 7.1 seconds remaining.
At the end of the second overtime period, the situation is reversed: UT has a three point lead with 32 seconds remaining. Iowa St misses a three at 14 seconds, grabs the rebound, and calls time out at the 11 second mark.
Reid can’t resist. He starts pushing his intentional foul by the team with the lead theory again. Completely ignoring what happened in regulation, he says, “I like fouling at around the 7 to 8 second mark.”
REALly, Reid? You still want to give the trailing team a chance to cut the lead to one point with the clock stopped and 7 to 8 seconds remaining in he game?
That’s strike two.
Iowa St gets off a running three pointer that bounces their way. They grab the rebound. But before they can get off another shot, they fumble the ball around like a Turner Gill coached football team and the clock runs out.
Reid’s analysis: “Iowa St chose to foul in regulation and it worked for them. Texas chose not to foul and it worked for them.”
No, Reid. It did not work for Iowa St. That’s why the game was in overtime to begin with. There is no way of telling what would have happened had ISU chosen not to foul with more than 7 seconds remaining in regulation, but it would not-could not--have been any worse than overtime.
That’s strike three.
Pick up your check and your next assignment.
As for its effect on the REAL Standings, the Cyclones’ loss in Austin, coupled with its previous loss in Lubbock, pretty much shuts it out from any REAListic chance to claim even a share of the Big 12 championship.
In other action, to no one’s surprise, Baylor took care of West Virginia at Home, and Okie St barely broke a sweat in routing Tech in Lubbock.
THE CURRENT 2013 SEASON REAL TIERS (Subject to change)
1. Tier One: Baylor/Iowa St/KU/KSU/OU/OSU
2. Tier Two: Texas/West Virginia
3. Tier Three: Texas Tech
4. Tier Four: TCU
THE CURRENT 2013 REAL STANDINGS:
1. 13.5-4.5 Okie St (8-3) Projected L’s: at ISU At-risk games: at WVU
K-State (8-3) Projected L’s: at BU, at OSU At-risk games: at UT
Oklahoma (7-4) Projected L’s: at OSU At-risk games: at UT
KU (8-3) Projected L’s: at OSU, at ISU, at BU At-risk games: N/A
Baylor (7-4) Projected L’s: at OU, at K-State At-risk games: at WVU, at UT
Iowa St (6-5) Projected L’s: at OU, at BU At-risk games: at WVU
W. Virginia (5-6) Projected L’s: at K-State, at KU, at OU At-risk games: OSU, BU, ISU
Texas (3-8) Projected L’s: at KU, at OSU At-risk games: K-State, OU, BU, at Tech
Texas Tech (2-9) Projected L’s: at WVU, OU, at ISU, at K-State, at KU At-risk games: UT
TCU (1-10) Projected L’s: at ISU, UT, at KU, OSU, at Tech, at K-State, OU At-risk games: N/A
What to Watch
1. Oklahoma at Okie St**** (12:30p.m.) (Projected W: OSU)
OU tries to sweep the season series. Unfortunately, they will be hampered by the game being in Stillwater vs. a team that has advanced at least three levels on the maturity scale since they met in Norman. Still, it’s a game between the first place team and a team tied for second in the REAL Standings, which makes it well worth catching.
2. TCU at Iowa St * (12:45p.m.) (Projected W: ISU)
If you catch this game, throw it back. Rout City, Baby!
3. Texas Tech at West Virginia*1/2 (3:00p.m.) (Projected W: WVU)
Tech’s last reasonable chance for a Road victory. If anyone cares.
4. Baylor at K-State**** (6:00p.m.) (Projected W: K-State)
Baylor’s next to last chance to pick up ground in the REAL World. K-State, on the other hand, cannot afford to lose another Home game.
5. Texas at KU**** (8:00p.m.) (Projected W: KU)
Kansas. Kabongo. Digger. Dickie V. Game Day. ‘Nuf said.