Suddenly, it’s all about Baylor. The ace in the hole for Oklahoma and Okie St has been that, in spite of having one loss more than KU and K-State, the Kansas schools still had to go to Waco.
Fuhgeddaboutit. Baylor just keeps getting worse and worse. I wonder why. (That’s a rhetorical question.) They not only lost to Iowa St in Waco this past week, they went on the Road and did not even compete, trailing OU 47-21 at halftime. It’s like they were Northwest Central Southern Baylor St playing a guarantee game in November vs. KU, Kentucky, Michigan St, or Duke.
In other words, Sad. Pitiful. Pathetic. Consult your thesaurus.
As a result, Baylor is not only on the verge of punching its ticket to the NIT, it can no longer be considered a Tier One team in the Big 12, even with a collection of talent that probably ranks among the conference’s Top 3. They are hereby DEMOTED to Tier 2!
The fallout of Baylor’s fall from grace primarily falls on the two Oklahoma teams. Instead of being in a REAL Standings tie with KU and K-State, they are half a game back. Playing in Waco can no longer be projected as a loss for the Jayhawks and Wildcats. It is, at best (or worst, depending on your POV), an at-risk game. The odds are that at least one of the two will win at Baylor. And both winning there appears more likely than both losing.
In short, Okie St and OU are screwed.
Here is each team’s path to at least a share of the title, assuming no major upsets by a Tier 3 team or lower:
• KU: Beat ISU in Ames (Projected L) and Baylor in Waco (at-risk) • K-State: Beat Okie St in Stillwater (Projected L) and Baylor in Waco (at-risk) • Okie St: Beat K-State in Stillwater (Projected W), beat Iowa St in Ames (Projected L), and hope KU loses in either Ames or Waco • OU: Beat Iowa St at Home and hope K-State loses at Okie St AND Baylor, and KU loses at Iowa St AND Baylor • ISU: Beat KU AND Okie St in Ames, beat OU in Norman, and hope K-State loses at Okie St AND Baylor, and KU loses at Baylor
The biggest news, then, Saturday was Baylor’s preposterous effort (or lack thereof) at OU, which resulted in a major shake-up up the REAL Standings’ tier alignment. With Baylor being demoted from Tier 1, Texas and West Virginia drop to Tier 3, Tech to Tier 4, and TCU to Tier 5.
In other games, Okie St and K-State won Road games at West Virginia and Texas respectively, both of which were listed as at-risk games. Under the new tier structure, both games would have been projected as W’s.
Iowa St over Tech and KU downing TCU were foregone conclusions, as both avenged (though not totally) humiliating Road losses to these anemic teams earlier in the season.
THE CURRENT 2013 SEASON REAL TIERS (Subject to change)
1. Tier One: ISU/KU/KSU/OU/OSU
2. Tier Two: Baylor
3. Tier Three: Texas/West Virginia
4. Tier Four: Texas Tech
5. Tier 5: TCU
THE CURRENT 2013 REAL STANDINGS:
KU (11-3) Projected L’s: at ISU At-risk games: at BU
K-State (11-3) Projected L’s: at OSU At-risk games: at BU
Oklahoma (9-5) Projected L’s: N/A At-risk games: N/A
Okie St (10-4) Projected L’s: at ISU At-risk games: N/A
Iowa St (9-5) Projected L’s: at OU At-risk games: N/A
Baylor (7-7) Projected L’s: N/A At-risk games: at WVU, KSU, at UT, KU
W. Virginia (6-8) Projected L’s: at KU, at OU, ISU At-risk games: BU
Texas (4-10) Projected L’s: at OSU, OU At-risk games: BU, at Tech
Texas Tech (2-12) Projected L’s: at K-State, at KU At-risk games: UT
TCU (1-13) Projected L’s: OSU, at Tech, at K-State, OU At-risk games: N/A
What to Watch
1. Texas Tech at K-State *1/2 (6:00p.m.) (Projected W: K-State)
A Tech win would be the second biggest upset of the season. A K-State victory puts it back atop the newspaper standings for at least a couple of hours.
2. KU at Iowa ST **** (8:00p.m.) (Projected W: ISU)
The Jayhawks can all but eliminate everyone but K-State with a W in Ames.
3. Okie St at TCU*1/2 (6:00p.m.) (Projected W: OSU)
The only question is whether Okie St’s W will keep it on life support or thrust it front and center in the Big 12 race. That will be decided in Ames.
4. Baylor at West Virginia**1/2 (7:00p.m.) (At-risk game)
How low can Baylor go? No, I am not talking about recruiting.
5. Oklahoma at Texas***(8:00p.m.) (Projected W: OU)
Why is this game not being played in the Jerry-Dome? That’s a rhetorical question.