If there was one thing more annoying Monday night than listening to Fran Fraschilla go on and on and on and on and on ad nauseum about the refs no calling a routine charge/block play, it was hearing and reading all of the uninformed commentators asserting that KU’s win in Ames kept them tied with K-State atop the Big 12 standings. Obviously, that is not the case. K-State beat Texas Tech at Home. KU conquered Iowa St and the legendary Hilton Magic in Ames, a place where K-State had already suffered a loss (as has everyone else who has played there this year). Advantage: KU. Big Advantage.
With the win, the Jayhawks all but assured themselves of at least a share of their ninth consecutive Big 12 title. For the Hawks to be left out in the cold now will require the following, assuming no upsets on the scale of KU at TCU:
KU losing to Baylor in Waco AND K-State beating Baylor in Waco AND K-State beating Okie ST in Stillwater
Giving KU a 60% chance of winning in Waco (probably conservative), and K-State a 60% chance of winning in Waco (probably generous) and a 40% chance of winning in Stillwater (spot on), the Hawks’ probability of claiming at least a co-championship is 85.6%.
The Self factor (i.e., a coach who collects conference titles like the American Pickers collect vintage gasoline signs) is probably good for another 10%.Which leaves 4.4% of doubt.
The REAL question remaining is whether K-State, the only other team to control its own Big 12 destiny, can grab a share of the title.
The Answer? Probably not. In Okie St, they will be playing a more talented team on the Road, always a bad combination.
Still, K-State could conceivably win both at Baylor and Okie St and take home a share of its first conference title since 11 years before they lost to KU in the Elite 8 in Pontiac. The chances of that actually happening is approximately 24%.
The only other team with even a prayer of sharing the title is Okie St. To do so will require:
KU losing at Baylor AND Okie State winning at Iowa St AND Okie St beating K-State in Stillwater
The probablity of all three things happening s approximately 9.6%. (.4 x .4 x .6.)
As an aside, I have heard that some commentators who are supposed to know something about basketball have been trying to denigrate KU’s victory over Iowa St, claiming that the refs cost the Cyclones the game by failing to call a charge on Elijah Johnson in the final moments of the game.
As Joan Rivers would say: “Oh, grow up.”
First, it not as though the charge/block call is routinely called correctly. There are dozens of opportunities per game for an official to call a charge, a block, or nothing. Kinda like holding in football. The call made (or not made) is probably technically wrong half the time under the best of circumstances.
The non-call in this instance might have been worth a mention by Fran Fraschilla, as was Withey’s bogus charge that sent him to the bench for a goodly part of the second half. But move on, Fran—like you did in Withey’s case. Don’t dwell on it like you’re the chief organizer of Occupy Charge Street.
It is not like an Iowa St player got a black eye with KU trying desperately to foul him and, instead of going to the line was called for traveling while recoiling from the inadvertent (allegedly) punch.
It’s not like the Cyclones’ star wide receiver made a game winning catch against a Top 10 team only to have it immediately nullified by a bogus offensive pass interference call—a call that is made perhaps three times a season in all of college football.
Second, the story of this game for any discerning fan or commentator (listen up, Fran, listen up Blair) is that Iowa St shot 3’s at a flukish rate (7 for 14, 10 for 20, 12 for 24, 17 for 34) and connected on 22 consecutive free throws, yet every time you looked up at the scoreboard—every single time—KU was right there, right in the game, up or down 3-5 points. If you can’t put away a team with those numbers, you don’t deserve to win or complain about not winning. You especially don’t deserve to blame someone else for your tear-inducing defeat. You didn’t close a game that should have been over with ten minutes remaining. No coffee for you.
Oh, and third: As Jim Rome would say: “Scoreboard.”
Or, as golfers say, “They don’t ask how, just how many.”
THE CURRENT 2013 SEASON REAL TIERS (Subject to change)
1. Tier One: ISU/KU/KSU/OU/OSU
2. Tier Two: Baylor
3. Tier Three: Texas/West Virginia
4. Tier Four: Texas Tech
5. Tier 5: TCU
THE CURRENT 2013 REAL STANDINGS:
KU (12-3) Projected L’s: None At-risk games: at BU
K-State (12-3) Projected L’s: at OSU At-risk games: at BU
Oklahoma (9-5) Projected L’s: None At-risk games: None
Okie St (10-4) Projected L’s: at ISU At-risk games: None
Iowa St (9-6) Projected L’s: at OU At-risk games: None
Baylor (7-7) Projected L’s: N/A At-risk games: at WVU, KSU, at UT, KU
W. Virginia (6-8) Projected L’s: at KU, at OU, ISU At-risk games: BU
Texas (4-10) Projected L’s: at OSU, OU At-risk games: BU, at Tech
Texas Tech (2-13) Projected L’s: at KU At-risk games: UT
TCU (1-13) Projected L’s: OSU, at Tech, at K-State, OU At-risk games: N/A
What to Watch
1. Okie St at TCU*1/2 (6:00p.m.) (Projected W: OSU)
With KU’s win in Ames, it should be too little too late for Okie St. But there is always seeing to play for—and that 9.6% chance.
2. Baylor at West Virginia**1/2 (7:00p.m.) (At-risk game)
How low can Baylor go? No, I am not talking about recruiting.
3. Oklahoma at Texas***(8:00p.m.) (Projected W: OU)
Why is this game not being played in the Jerry-Dome? That’s a rhetorical question.