REAL STANDINGS: HIGH TECH EDITION

              There is no shame in losing to Texas Tech this year. Texas did it. Iowa St did it. Baylor did it at Home. And Wednesday night, Oklahoma did it.

              Nor is it fatal to lose on the Road to a Tier 2 team other than Tech. KU did it at Okie St. Oklahoma did it in Manhattan.

              The problem for Oklahoma Is that they are on both lists. That is the difference between their current projection of 11-7, 1.5 games behind KU and West Virginia and being projected out at 13-5, a half game in front of the pack. Of course, the half game dropped in Lubbock, by itself, is keeping the Sooners from being merely a half game behind the leaders with 12 projected W’s.

              In other words, to quote someone (don’t ask me who) I heard somewhere (don’t ask where), OU’s loss in Lubbock was Huuuuuuge!

              Meanwhile, West Virginia, the only Tier 1 team without a loss to a Tier 2 team, failed to separate itself from the field Wednesday night in losing as projected at Texas. WVU’s problem is that it is on the list of Tier 1 teams with Home losses (along with Iowa St, Baylor, and—who else—Oklahoma).

              Still, West Virginia did not lose ground in dropping a Projected Loss Game.  Their REAL record remains 12.5-5.5.

              KU also remains at 12.5-5.5 with its Projected W at Home vs. Okie St.

              In other midweek action, K-State picked up a half game with an at risk W at TCU; and Baylor and ISU’s REAL records remained unchanged with the Bears’ projected W in Waco.

                                                                        CURRENT TIERS

1.       Oklahoma

West Virginia

Texas

Kansas

Baylor

Iowa State

2.       K-State

Texas Tech

Okie St

3.       TCU

                                                          HOW WE GOT HERE

Good W’s (Road wins at Power 6 venues):

·       Texas (at WVU, at Baylor)

·       Oklahoma (at Baylor)

·       West Virginia (at Iowa St)

·       Baylor (at Iowa St)

·       KU (at Oklahoma)

·       ISU (None)

Bad L’s (Losses at Home or at TCU):

·       KU (None)

·       WVU (vs. UT)

·       OU (vs. KU)

·       UT (at TCU)

·       Baylor (vs. OU, vs. UT, vs. Tech)

·       ISU (vs. Baylor, vs. WVU)

                                                                        CURRENT PROJECTIONS

1.           12.5-5.5

KU (10-3):          

Projected L’s (at BU, at UT)

              At risk games (at K-State)

              WVU (9-4)

              Projected L’s (at Baylor)

              At risk games (at OSU)

3.           12-6

              UT (8-5):            

Projected L’s: None

              At risk games (at K-State, at Okie St)

4.           11-7

              OU (8-5):           

Projected L’s (at WVU, at UT)

              At risk games: None

              Baylor (8-5):

Projected L’s (at UT, at OU)

              At risk games: None

6.           10-8

ISU (7-6):

Projected L’s (at WVU, at KU)

              At risk games: None      

7.           8-10

              Texas Tech (6-7):

Projected L’s (at OSU, at KU, at WVU)

              At risk games: None

8.           6-12

K-State (4-9)

Projected L’s (at ISU, at Tech)

At risk games (vs. KU, vs. UT)

9.           5-13

Okie State (3-10): 

Projected L’s (at OU, at ISU)

At risk games (vs. WVU, vs. UT)

10.         2-16

TCU (2-11):

Projected L’s (at ISU, at Tech, vs. BU, at K-State, vs. OU)

At risk games: None

                                                          AS SEEN ON TV

SATURDAY:

1:00p.m.: Baylor at UT (ESPN)**** (Projected W: UT)

Texas is laying in wait, a half-game behind KU and West Virginia. Their problem is that their projected record is 12-6, with a ceiling of 13-5 IF they can win out at Home (vs. Baylor, KU, and OU) and take out both K-State and Okie St on the Road. Any loss anywhere at this point is either  fatal or REALly, REALly close to it.

Actually, the same is true of Baylor.

In other words, it will be High Noon at 1:00p.m. on Red River Street.

3:00p.m.: Oklahoma at West Virginia (ESPN) **** (Projected W: WVU)

Oklahoma is in the same boat as Texas and Baylor. A sinking one. They must win out to stay afloat.

West Virginia is in better shape for now. A loss will not be fatal. However, a loss accompanied by a KU W in Manhattan, and the Mountaineers are checking into Intensive Care at St.  Morgan Hospital.

5:00 p.m.: KU at K-State (ESPN2)**** (At risk)

It isn’t like having the entire conference pulling against you is a new experience for KU. That will certainly be the case here. A KU victory coupled with a West Virginia loss makes KU’s projected record 13-5, which they can reach at Home Alone (vs. Tech and ISU) even if they lose out on the Road (at Baylor and UT). And KU is kinda good at Home, don’tcha know?

6:30p.m.: TCU at Iowa St (ESPNU)* (Projected W: ISU)

Iowa St is looking forward to a game it can win. And the post-season tourney. Like anything else matters.

8:30p.m.: Texas Tech at Okie St (ESPNU)** (Projected W: OSU)

If the conference race were starting over tomorrow, Tech would have to be considered for a slot in Tier 1. Or in a new and improved Tier 2, with Okie St and K-State assigned to Tier 3 and TCU even lower.

Tech probably should be in a Tier above Okie St right now, which would make their game in Stillwater an at risk game rather than a Projected W for OSU.

But, then, what difference would it make? Especially since their only remaining meaningful games are at KU and West Virginia, two projected losses regardless of Tech’s placement.

--Mark

 

 

 

             

 

 

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