Extrapolating the BCS

One of the good things about the internets is that there are people with more time and more brains and more will than I have to do little things that I would do if I were blessed with generous enough helping of some combination of the above. Among such little things is a thorough breakdown of what will happen if teams keep winning in the top 10 to see what would happen to LSU. Actually I don't care much about LSU, but when the breakdown vis a vis LSU also includes my beloved Jayhawks, I pay attention. If you are not exhausted by the palaverous meanderings of the above paragraph, then you will be able to survive the thickish exploration of LSU's chances. The good news is that KU stands to end up ahead of LSU. The bad news is that they stand to end up in the unfortunate position of being an undefeated team in third place in the BCS. We can only hope for such bad luck, I think. I must. stop. typing. The below hermeneutics come from a rant over at TigerDroppings.com

I have mentioned before that I am able to reproduce The Colley Matrix poll used in the BCS…with one catch. Until this year, 1AA teams were ignored altogether and my poll still ignores them. It wouldn’t be a big deal, except Michigan’s loss sort of screws things up (it affects a bunch of teams in the Big 10 as well as Oregon)...I am working on fixing it.

But I can also run some simulations of what the final rankings MIGHT look like at the end of the season if some teams keep winning. I ran that on the assumption that the favorite always won (team currently higher in the Colley Matrix wins). I did that for every DI game for the rest of the year including Championship games. I was surprised to see that LSU would finish (barely) above undefeated ASU. They could finish above Kansas, and Ohio State too (you will see how close it is). Maybe even more surprising is that Boston College would be way above everyone else. In fact, a one-loss BC could finish above ASU (I ran a sim where Va Tech beat BC in the ACCCG)…which would actually help LSU.

Here is why this is so important. Sure this only one poll, sure I am ignoring 1AA games, sure the computers are only 1/3, and sure they will be upsets. But,

1. The computers tend to converge at the end, so they may all be similar at year’s end

2. Ignoring 1AA games HURTS LSU (because the SEC is a Nation’s best 7-0), we should only be better if I included it

3. The upsets may come out in a wash to some extent.

4. The computers are only 1/3 BUT (and this is a big but), what if just a 1/4 of the voters have us above ASU for example. More importantly, what if we are TWO spots of ASU and ONE spot behind in the human polls…we could jump them.

Anyway this is all very surprising and I am going to be double checking to be sure something isn’t wrong…but nothing sticks out as being really weird.


1 Boston College 0.993249 2 Ohio State 0.940117 3 Kansas 0.933546 4 LSU 0.924218 5 Arizona St 0.922846 6 West Virginia 0.847383 7 Oregon 0.845090 8 Georgia 0.843785 9 Michigan 0.829752 10 Virginia Tech 0.816011 11 Missouri 0.808873 12 Florida 0.807957 13 Oklahoma 0.806072 14 South Florida 0.800385 15 Purdue 0.791512 16 Connecticut 0.776394 17 Tennessee 0.775897 18 Alabama 0.767199 19 Texas 0.765260 20 California 0.748664